Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Zabka Group S.A. PLN 29.66, price PLN 31.49, upside -5.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range 17.61 PLN – 33.46 PLN · fair‑value band 20.76 PLN – 38.56 PLN · the 31.49 PLN price screens above the 29.66 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Zabka Group S.A. operates as an ultimate convenience ecosystem in Poland. The company operates convenience retail stores and Zabka Nano Stores, an autonomous store.
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Zabka Group S.A. operates as an ultimate convenience ecosystem in Poland. The company operates convenience retail stores and Zabka Nano Stores, an autonomous store. It also provides digital offering solutions, including Maczfit, a direct-to-consumer (D2C) meal solution; Dietly, an online D2C meal solutions marketplace.; and eGrocery and e-commerce services under the Zappka, delio and Zabka Jush brands. In addition, the company franchises retail stores; and engages in the IT consultancy related activities, real estate construction, warehousing and storage of goods, rental and management of own or leased real estate, and sale of merchandise. Further, it is involved in the retail sale of tobacco products in specialised stores; production and distribution of ready meals; software related activities connected with catering platform; transport of goods; distribution of FMCG products; and other activities supporting financial services. It sells its products through physical convenience stores and online. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) currently trades at 31.49 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.66 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 57.26 PLN per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 31.49 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 14.00 PLN, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 20.76 PLN (bear) to 38.56 PLN (bull), the price of 31.49 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zabka Group S.A. reported revenue of 27.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 12.5B PLN in FY2021, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B PLN in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 31.5B PLN (≈ $8.2B) · P/E ratio 27.4 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) 1.15 PLN · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 58.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −6%, ZAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20.76 PLNFair Value 29.66 PLNBull 38.56 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8412 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+25.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
2025 sits 188% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.6% a year for the price and +8.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)27.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.28× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zabka Group S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZAB
Frequently asked questions
Is Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 29.66 PLN versus a price of 31.49 PLN, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ZAB?
Our model-based fair value for Zabka Group S.A. is 29.66 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31.49 PLN.
What is the quality score of ZAB?
Zabka Group S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 29.66 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20.76 PLN, optimistic scenario 38.56 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zabka Group S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 29.66 PLN, about −6% upside versus a price of 31.49 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 20.76 PLN, optimistic scenario 38.56 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Zabka Group S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zabka Group S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +21.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZAB use?
Our models discount Zabka Group S.A. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zabka Group S.A. that is +3.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Zabka Group S.A. grew +21.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zabka Group S.A. (+3.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.90 %: that much free cash flow Zabka Group S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zabka Group S.A. it is 29.66 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 31.49 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zabka Group S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ZAB trades above its calculated fair value: price 31.49 PLN, fair value 29.66 PLN, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31.49 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (29.66 PLN). For Zabka Group S.A. the two are 1.83 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zabka Group S.A. worth?
The market values Zabka Group S.A. at about 31.5B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 31.49 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 29.66 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZAB?
Our models span a range for Zabka Group S.A.: cautious scenario 20.76 PLN, base 29.66 PLN, optimistic 38.56 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 31.49 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZAB?
Zabka Group S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 29.66 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zabka Group S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 58.8%, debt of 1.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZAB from its 52-week high?
Zabka Group S.A. trades at 31.49 PLN, about 6% below its 52-week high of 33.46 PLN and 59% above the low of 19.84 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 29.66 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zabka Group S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zabka Group S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 31.49 PLN, calculated fair value 29.66 PLN (−6%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZAB calculated?
We run Zabka Group S.A. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 29.66 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zabka Group S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 31.49 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 29.66 PLN, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zabka Group S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (20.76 PLN to 38.56 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Zabka Group S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The market capitalisation of Zabka Group S.A. is 31.5B PLN (≈ $8.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zabka Group S.A. is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Earnings per share at Zabka Group S.A. are 1.15 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The net margin of Zabka Group S.A. is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zabka Group S.A. is 58.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zabka Group S.A. is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
The operating margin of Zabka Group S.A. is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Revenue at Zabka Group S.A. is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB)?
Earnings per share at Zabka Group S.A. are growing +143% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zabka Group S.A. (ZAB) carry?
The net debt of Zabka Group S.A. is 3.1B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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