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Zabka Group (ZAB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · PL · Market cap 27.8B PLN

ZG Zabka Group ZAB · WAR
Price31.49 PLN
Fair Value25.91 PLN
Upside-17.7%
Quality56/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 4.1% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range 17.73 PLN – 36.88 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 25.73 PLN to 25.91 PLN (+0.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +12.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (17.73 PLN to 36.88 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (22 months)

33.83 PLN 17.90 PLN Fair Value 25.91 PLN Oct 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

22‑month range 17.90 PLN – 33.83 PLN · fair‑value band 17.73 PLN – 36.88 PLN · the 31.49 PLN price screens above the 25.91 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zabka Group (ZAB) currently trades at 31.49 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.91 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zabka Group generated revenue of 28.1B PLN at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 58.8%. Net debt stands at 3.1B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 17.73 PLN (bear case) to 36.88 PLN (bull case); at 31.49 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -18%, ZAB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 34.16 PLN 70.50 PLN 138.96 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 21.68 PLN 42.20 PLN 72.46 PLN 74
ROIC Compounder 17.73 PLN 25.91 PLN 36.88 PLN 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 35.84 PLN 63.13 PLN 139.59 PLN 38
Owner Earnings 18.48 PLN 44.92 PLN 99.84 PLN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 21.68 PLN 40.19 PLN 74.00 PLN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 34.57 PLN 68.34 PLN 126.95 PLN 41
5Y P/E Exit 20.34 PLN 39.92 PLN 64.24 PLN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 25.08 PLN 48.64 PLN 77.23 PLN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 34.84 PLN 72.65 PLN 140.43 PLN 37
10Y P/E Exit 24.87 PLN 46.15 PLN 80.54 PLN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7.50 PLN 51.25 PLN 71.86 PLN 54
Lynch FV 15.06 PLN 21.52 PLN 27.98 PLN 50
PEG = 1.0 15.06 PLN 21.52 PLN 27.98 PLN 46
EPV 14.19 PLN 17.02 PLN 19.49 PLN 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 17.36 PLN 23.15 PLN 28.94 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 14.06 PLN 18.74 PLN 23.43 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 10.29 PLN 13.73 PLN 17.16 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 22.45 PLN 30.85 PLN 39.25 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 34.96 PLN 47.53 PLN 60.10 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 15.24 PLN 22.95 PLN 30.66 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.25 PLN 1.67 PLN 2.50 PLN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 34.16 PLN 70.50 PLN 138.96 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 21.68 PLN 42.20 PLN 72.46 PLN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 9.14 PLN 14.00 PLN 207.25 PLN 61
ROIC Compounder 17.73 PLN 25.91 PLN 36.88 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 20.76 PLN 29.66 PLN 38.56 PLN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (46.15 PLN) versus Asset-Based (1.67 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 28.1B PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.9%
Net margin 4.1%
Return on equity 58.8%
Free cash flow 2.5B PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 24.2
More key figures
Operating margin 2.2%
EPS (TTM) 1.15 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) +143%
Net debt 3.1B PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 64
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zabka Group S.A. operates as an ultimate convenience ecosystem in Poland. The company operates convenience retail stores and Zabka Nano Stores, an autonomous store.

Full company description

Zabka Group S.A. operates as an ultimate convenience ecosystem in Poland. The company operates convenience retail stores and Zabka Nano Stores, an autonomous store. It also provides digital offering solutions, including Maczfit, a direct-to-consumer (D2C) meal solution; Dietly, an online D2C meal solutions marketplace.; and eGrocery and e-commerce services under the Zappka, delio and Zabka Jush brands. In addition, the company franchises retail stores; and engages in the IT consultancy related activities, real estate construction, warehousing and storage of goods, rental and management of own or leased real estate, and sale of merchandise. Further, it is involved in the retail sale of tobacco products in specialised stores; production and distribution of ready meals; software related activities connected with catering platform; transport of goods; distribution of FMCG products; and other activities supporting financial services. It sells its products through physical convenience stores and online. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zabka Group reported revenue of 27.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 12.5B PLN in FY2021, a compound +21.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B PLN in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
27.2B PLN
Latest YoY
+14.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+19.3%
Revenue +21.4%/yr
FY21 12.5B PLN
FY22 16.0B PLN
FY23 19.8B PLN
FY24 23.8B PLN
FY25 27.2B PLN
Net income +22.6%/yr
FY21 487M PLN
FY22 382M PLN
FY23 354M PLN
FY24 624M PLN
FY25 1.1B PLN

ZAB screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zabka Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZAB

Peer Group

Grocery Stores · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −18% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 59% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Revenue growth 16% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.54× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.27× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 10 · sector 36
FUTURE 80 · sector 17
PAST 100 · sector 51
HEALTH 23 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Loblaw Companies Limited L C$65.49 C$44.44 -32%
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD €36.30 €53.50 +47%
The Kroger Co KR $58.82 $28.19 -52%
Woolworths Group WOW A$39.20 A$13.40 -66%
George Weston Limited WN C$100.98 C$63.61 -37%
Coles Group COL A$23.56 A$15.86 -33%
Metro Inc MRU C$93.64 C$94.01 +0%
Carrefour SA CA €16.40 €11.51 -30%
CP ALL Public Company TCPD 1.89 SGD 2.36 SGD +25%
BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS 385.75 TRY 267.12 TRY -31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zabka Group (ZAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.91 PLN versus a price of 31.49 PLN, about −18% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZAB?
Our model-based fair value for Zabka Group is 25.91 PLN (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 31.49 PLN.
What is the quality score of ZAB?
Zabka Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zabka Group (ZAB)?
Zabka Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ZAB?
The net profit margin of Zabka Group is about 4.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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