Zillow Group Inc (ZG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Zillow Group Inc $18.97, price $28.10, upside -32.5%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.02 – $121.50 · fair‑value band $11.58 – $32.22 · the $28.10 price screens above the $18.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Zillow Group operates a real estate application and website that connects consumers with technology, agents and loan officers, and digital solutions in the United States. The company operates through four categories: Residential, Mortgages, Rentals, and Other.
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Zillow Group operates a real estate application and website that connects consumers with technology, agents and loan officers, and digital solutions in the United States. The company operates through four categories: Residential, Mortgages, Rentals, and Other. The Residential segment includes agent and software, as well as new construction marketing solutions and StreetEasy for sale products. This segment also offers advertising and marketing solutions for real estate agents, premier agent, SaaS customer relationship management, real estate transaction management, appointment center, and enhanced listing services. The Rentals segment includes advertising and a suite of tools for property managers, landlords, and other rental professionals, as well as rental applications. The Mortgages segment provides mortgage originations through Zillow Home Loans and advertising to mortgage lenders and other mortgage professionals; and title and escrow services. The company also generates revenue from display advertising. It also offers a brand portfolio including Zillow, Zillow Premier Agent, Zillow Rentals, Zillow New Construction, Trulia, StreetEasy, Out East, HotPads, Follow Up Boss, ShowingTime, dotloop and Zillow Closing; and a suite of marketing software and technology solutions for the real estate industry. Zillow Group, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Zillow Group Inc (ZG) currently trades at $28.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.97, 32.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $25.78 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $28.10 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $12.90, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.58 (bear) to $32.22 (bull), the price of $28.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zillow Group Inc reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was $23.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.6B · P/E ratio 132.8 · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.4% · Operating margin 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −32%, ZG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.58Fair Value $18.97Bull $32.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1890 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.9% (2020) → −1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.6% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 135 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)132.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.56× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.70× · Pricier than median
P/FCF32.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA44.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.92× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zillow Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZG
Frequently asked questions
Is Zillow Group Inc (ZG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.97 versus a price of $28.10, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZG?
Our model-based fair value for Zillow Group Inc is $18.97 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.10.
What is the quality score of ZG?
Zillow Group Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.97 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.58, optimistic scenario $32.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zillow Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.97, about −32% upside versus a price of $28.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.58, optimistic scenario $32.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Zillow Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zillow Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZG use?
Our models discount Zillow Group Inc at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zillow Group Inc that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zillow Group Inc (ZG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zillow Group Inc grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zillow Group Inc (ZG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zillow Group Inc (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.67 %: that much free cash flow Zillow Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zillow Group Inc it is $18.97 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of $28.10. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zillow Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, ZG trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.10, fair value $18.97, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.97). For Zillow Group Inc the two are $9.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zillow Group Inc worth?
The market values Zillow Group Inc at about $7.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is $28.10; our models calculate a fair value of $18.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZG?
Our models span a range for Zillow Group Inc: cautious scenario $11.58, base $18.97, optimistic $32.22 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price $28.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZG?
Zillow Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 132.8 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.6, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 44.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ZG?
The PEG ratio of Zillow Group Inc is 0.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zillow Group Inc (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZG from its 52-week high?
Zillow Group Inc trades at $28.10, about 62% below its 52-week high of $74.58 and 1% above the low of $27.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zillow Group Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zillow Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price $28.10, calculated fair value $18.97 (−32%), Quality Score 68/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZG calculated?
We run Zillow Group Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Zillow Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $28.10. Our model-based fair value is $18.97, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zillow Group Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.58 to $32.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Zillow Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The market capitalisation of Zillow Group Inc is $7.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zillow Group Inc is 1.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Earnings per share at Zillow Group Inc are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 132.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The net margin of Zillow Group Inc is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zillow Group Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zillow Group Inc is −1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
The operating margin of Zillow Group Inc is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Revenue at Zillow Group Inc is growing +17.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zillow Group Inc (ZG)?
Earnings per share at Zillow Group Inc are growing +533% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Zillow Group Inc (ZG) hold?
Zillow Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $237M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 30, 2026