MediaTek Inc (2454) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MediaTek Inc stock TWD 3,116, price TWD 3,460, that is 10.0% below the price, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 10% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 80/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +13.1 %/yr in TWD)
Solidly profitable · 16.0% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +18% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers(8/15)
Wide moat71/100 · thin data
Fair value 3,116 TWD · Overvalued (−10.0%)
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Yield concerns, rival bids and project timeline questions weighing on sentiment🚩Yield concerns for advanced packaging and rival bids for AI orders🚩Cheaper Chinese rivals in budget chips🚩Dependence on TSMC for manufacturing
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 437.85 TWD – 5,285 TWD · fair‑value band 2,108 TWD – 4,084 TWD · the 3,460 TWD price screens above the 3,116 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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MediaTek Inc. engages in the research, development, production, manufacture, and marketing of multimedia integrated circuits (ICs) in Taiwan, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company offers multimedia, computer peripherals oriented, consumer-oriented, and other ICs for various applications.
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It also offers design, test runs, maintenance and repair, and technological consultation services for software and hardware solutions; and sale and delegation patents and circuit layout rights for its ICs products.
In addition, the company provides research, marketing, and technical services; intellectual property right management services; and general investing services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
MediaTek Inc (2454) currently trades at 3,460 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,116 TWD, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,640 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3,460 TWD price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 392.91 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 2,108 TWD (bear) to 4,084 TWD (bull), the price of 3,460 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MediaTek Inc reported revenue of 596B TWD in FY2025 versus 493B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 105B TWD in FY2025, compounding −1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.4T TWD (≈ $165B) Large · P/E ratio 57.1 · P/S ratio 8.80 · EPS (TTM) 60.56 TWD · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 210% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −10%, 2454 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2,108 TWDFair Value 3,116 TWDBull4,084 TWD
Price 3,460 TWD · Downside -10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (30.53 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Per share before 2010divided by the spin-off factor 1.02
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.6% vs 14.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+51.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.5% a year for the price and +48.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Solid ROE and margins form the main strength while the key weakness is insufficient evidence of a durable moat or switching costs amid thin data on capabilities.
Main risk: Chinese rivals such as UNISOC could take design wins in entry-level smartphones with state-supported lower prices and squeeze MediaTek's margins and volumes in its core mobile segment.
Bull case: MediaTek could leverage its efficiency expertise and partnerships with Nvidia and Google to win substantial share in custom AI ASICs and offset any pressure in mobile chips.
Bear case: If cheaper Chinese rivals erode mobile volumes and TSMC constraints delay ASIC ramps, MediaTek could see sustained revenue pressure across its main businesses.
A company shifting from smartphone chips toward data center AI accelerators faces questions on project timelines and competition. Yield concerns for a key advanced packaging process and rival bids for future orders have weighed on sentiment despite recent customer wins and shipment starts. Our models see it as overvalued. Will diversification into AI ASICs deliver more growth than it loses from smartphone weakness and execution hurdles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MediaTek Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2454
Frequently asked questions
Is MediaTek Inc (2454) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,116 TWD versus a price of 3,460 TWD, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2454?
Our model-based fair value for MediaTek Inc is 3,116 TWD (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,460 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2454?
MediaTek Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,116 TWD (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,108 TWD, optimistic scenario 4,084 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MediaTek Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,116 TWD, about 10% lower versus a price of 3,460 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,108 TWD, optimistic scenario 4,084 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
MediaTek Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 620B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does MediaTek Inc pay a dividend?
MediaTek Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into MediaTek Inc (2454)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MediaTek Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2454 use?
Our models discount MediaTek Inc at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.96, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MediaTek Inc that is +27.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MediaTek Inc (2454) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MediaTek Inc grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies +27.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MediaTek Inc (2454) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MediaTek Inc (+27.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.59 %: that much free cash flow MediaTek Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MediaTek Inc it is 3,116 TWD per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of 3,460 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MediaTek Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 2454 trades above its calculated fair value: price 3,460 TWD, fair value 3,116 TWD, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2454?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,460 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,116 TWD). For MediaTek Inc the two are 344.44 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MediaTek Inc worth?
The market values MediaTek Inc at about 5.4T TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is 3,460 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 3,116 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2454?
Our models span a range for MediaTek Inc: cautious scenario 2,108 TWD, base 3,116 TWD, optimistic 4,084 TWD per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price 3,460 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2454?
MediaTek Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,116 TWD is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 20.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 13.6, P/S 8.8, EV/EBITDA 43.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 2454?
The PEG ratio of MediaTek Inc is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Balance-sheet figures for MediaTek Inc (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 22.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2454 from its 52-week high?
MediaTek Inc trades at 3,460 TWD, about 35% below its 52-week high of 5,285 TWD and 210% above the low of 1,117 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,116 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MediaTek Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MediaTek Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price 3,460 TWD, calculated fair value 3,116 TWD (−10%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2454 calculated?
We run MediaTek Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,116 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. MediaTek Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 3,460 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 3,116 TWD, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MediaTek Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range (2,108 TWD to 4,084 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of MediaTek Inc (2454) come from?
Earnings per share at MediaTek Inc grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MediaTek Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The market capitalisation of MediaTek Inc is 5.4T TWD (≈ $165B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MediaTek Inc is 8.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Earnings per share at MediaTek Inc are 60.56 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The dividend yield of MediaTek Inc is 0.7% (payout 40.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The net margin of MediaTek Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MediaTek Inc is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MediaTek Inc is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MediaTek Inc (2454)?
The operating margin of MediaTek Inc is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Revenue at MediaTek Inc is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MediaTek Inc (2454)?
Earnings per share at MediaTek Inc are growing +10.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does MediaTek Inc (2454) hold?
MediaTek Inc holds more cash than debt, 213B TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026