China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd stock ¥48.19, price ¥54.22, that is 11.1% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 11% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 70/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.6% dividend yield · Well covered
Broad data
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
Fair value ¥48.19 · Overvalued (−11.1%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y +0.4 %/yr in CNY)
Narrow moat41/100 · thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Overvalued signals from lower per-visitor spending trends🚩Rivals like Avolta bidding for licences🚩Dependence on Hainan duty-free licences and policies
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥48.56 – ¥338.20 · fair‑value band ¥38.29 – ¥58.09 · the ¥54.22 price screens above the ¥48.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in duty-free tourism retail business in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics, watches and jewelry, apparel and bags, and electronic products, as well as food.
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It is also involved in the investment and development of commercial complexes for duty-free businesses. The company was formerly known as China International Travel Service Corporation Limited and changed its name to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited in June 2020.
The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Tourism Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) currently trades at ¥54.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥48.19, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥62.58 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥54.22 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥18.20, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥38.29 (bear) to ¥58.09 (bull), the price of ¥54.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd reported revenue of 53.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 67.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 112B CNY (≈ $16.8B) Large · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 2.13 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.08 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −11%, 601888 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥38.29Fair Value ¥48.19Bull¥58.09
Price ¥54.22 · Downside -11.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.2% vs 8.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from strong visitor numbers at its Hainan duty-free stores, yet its main weakness is thin evidence of a durable moat combined with low returns on equity.
Main risk: Rivals such as Avolta and domestic operators bidding for airport and Hainan concessions could take market share or force lower prices and margins in the company's core duty-free retail operations.
Bull case: By leveraging its scale, brand partnerships and omnichannel expansion the company could capture more of the broadened Hainan customer base and offset any licence pressure through operational efficiencies.
Bear case: If policy support narrows or rivals win key concessions the company might lose significant Hainan volume and face sustained margin pressure in its dominant market.
Strong visitor numbers at Hainan duty-free stores during the latest holiday period contrast with lower average spending per shopper. Our models see the stock as overvalued given these trends in the core business. Will rising footfall drive revenue growth or will weaker per-visitor sales limit the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China International Travel Service Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601888
Frequently asked questions
Is China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥48.19 versus a price of ¥54.22, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601888?
Our model-based fair value for China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is ¥48.19 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥54.22.
What is the quality score of 601888?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥48.19 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥38.29, optimistic scenario ¥58.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China International Travel Service Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥48.19, about 11% lower versus a price of ¥54.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥38.29, optimistic scenario ¥58.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 52.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does China International Travel Service Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China International Travel Service Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601888 use?
Our models discount China International Travel Service Corp Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China International Travel Service Corp Ltd that is +3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (+3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.27 %: that much free cash flow China International Travel Service Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China International Travel Service Corp Ltd it is ¥48.19 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥54.22. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China International Travel Service Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 601888 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥54.22, fair value ¥48.19, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601888?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥54.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥48.19). For China International Travel Service Corp Ltd the two are ¥6.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China International Travel Service Corp Ltd worth?
The market values China International Travel Service Corp Ltd at about 112B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥54.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥48.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601888?
Our models span a range for China International Travel Service Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥38.29, base ¥48.19, optimistic ¥58.09 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥54.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601888?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥48.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 38.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 15.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 601888?
The PEG ratio of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 0.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Balance-sheet figures for China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601888 from its 52-week high?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd trades at ¥54.22, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥97.10 and 12% above the low of ¥48.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥48.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China International Travel Service Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China International Travel Service Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥54.22, calculated fair value ¥48.19 (−11%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601888 calculated?
We run China International Travel Service Corp Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥48.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. China International Travel Service Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥54.22. Our model-based fair value is ¥48.19, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China International Travel Service Corp Ltd right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) come from?
Earnings per share at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd grew +15.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The market capitalisation of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 112B CNY (≈ $16.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 2.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Earnings per share at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd are ¥2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The dividend yield of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 1.6% (payout 40.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The net margin of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
The operating margin of China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Revenue at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888)?
Earnings per share at China International Travel Service Corp Ltd are growing +24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China International Travel Service Corp Ltd (601888) hold?
China International Travel Service Corp Ltd holds more cash than debt, 29.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026