Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Allegro.eu S.A. stock PLN 64.20, price PLN 59.46, upside +8.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 74/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +23.4 %/yr in PLN)
Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +16%, profit +42%.
Fair value 64.20 PLN · Fairly valued (+8.0%)
Mixed vs. peers(7/13)
Wide moat65/100 · thin data
Some data
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI agents could disintermediate its marketplace🚩Temu, Shein and Amazon could erode its market share🚩Antitrust probes and lawsuits could restrict its practices
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.37 PLN – 72.75 PLN · fair‑value band 44.93 PLN – 83.46 PLN · the 59.46 PLN price screens below the 64.20 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Allegro.eu S.A. operates a commerce platform for consumers in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and internationally. It operates through Allegro, Ceneo, Allegro International, and Other segments.
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The company engages in operating B2C, C2C, and B2B e-commerce platforms comprising online marketplace; and various services, such as consumer lending and logistics services.
It also provides multi-category price comparison services allowing the customer to find prices among the different websites and marketplaces. In addition, it operates eBilet, an event ticket sales site.
Further, the company operates Allegro. pl, an online marketplace; Ceneo.pl, a price comparison platform.
Additionally, the company engages in online marketplace; retail sale via the Internet; advertising; logistic services; online price comparison services; consumer lending to marketplace buyers; online tickets distribution; software and solutions for delivery logistics; and provides payment services to partners.
The company was formerly known as Adinan Super Topco S.a r.l. and changed its name to Allegro.eu S.A. in August 2020. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Stock analysis
Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) currently trades at 59.46 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 64.20 PLN, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 56.68 PLN per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the 59.46 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 13.30 PLN, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 44.93 PLN (bear) to 83.46 PLN (bull), the price of 59.46 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Allegro.eu S.A. reported revenue of 11.5B PLN in FY2025 versus 5.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +21.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 60.7B PLN (≈ $15.5B) Large · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 4.94 · EPS (TTM) 1.90 PLN · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 20.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 131% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 8%, ALE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear44.93 PLNFair Value 64.20 PLNBull83.46 PLN
Price 59.46 PLN · Upside +8.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.61 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 19%
2025 sits 141% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The Polish marketplace delivers robust GMV growth as the main strength, while international operations create cash outflows that pressure group margins with limited moat visibility.
Main risk: AI-powered search agents and large language models might bypass Allegro during shopping queries, reducing traffic and market share as consumers rely on automated recommendations instead of the platform.
Bull case: By integrating AI tools and optimizing for external agents while strengthening local advantages, Allegro could maintain or grow its position against competitors and regulatory pressures.
Bear case: If AI agents dominate search and rivals capture significant share while regulators impose strict remedies, Allegro's platform could see reduced relevance and profitability in its core markets.
Allegro's core Polish marketplace keeps delivering solid double-digit GMV growth while its international operations accelerate sharply and now drive most of the upgraded 2026 outlook. Yet the same expansion still generates cash outflows and pressure on group margins. Will the international segment turn cash-flow positive fast enough to offset any slowdown in Poland, or will the domestic business continue to carry the economics?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.9% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.3× · Pricier than median
P/B5.99× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allegro.eu S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALE
Frequently asked questions
Is Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 64.20 PLN versus a price of 59.46 PLN, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALE?
Our model-based fair value for Allegro.eu S.A. is 64.20 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 59.46 PLN.
What is the quality score of ALE?
Allegro.eu S.A. has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 64.20 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 83.46 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allegro.eu S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 64.20 PLN, about +8% upside versus a price of 59.46 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 44.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 83.46 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Allegro.eu S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allegro.eu S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALE use?
Our models discount Allegro.eu S.A. at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allegro.eu S.A. that is +14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allegro.eu S.A. grew +23.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allegro.eu S.A. (+14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Allegro.eu S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allegro.eu S.A. it is 64.20 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 59.46 PLN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allegro.eu S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ALE trades below its calculated fair value: price 59.46 PLN, fair value 64.20 PLN, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (59.46 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (64.20 PLN). For Allegro.eu S.A. the two are 4.74 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allegro.eu S.A. worth?
The market values Allegro.eu S.A. at about 60.7B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 59.46 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 64.20 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALE?
Our models span a range for Allegro.eu S.A.: cautious scenario 44.93 PLN, base 64.20 PLN, optimistic 83.46 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 59.46 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALE?
Allegro.eu S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 64.20 PLN is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 37.6 (reported for FY2025: 41.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 6.0, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 18.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ALE?
The PEG ratio of Allegro.eu S.A. is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allegro.eu S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALE from its 52-week high?
Allegro.eu S.A. trades at 59.46 PLN, about 1% below its 52-week high of 60.30 PLN and 131% above the low of 25.73 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 64.20 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allegro.eu S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allegro.eu S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 59.46 PLN, calculated fair value 64.20 PLN (+8%), Quality Score 74/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALE calculated?
We run Allegro.eu S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 64.20 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Allegro.eu S.A. currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 59.46 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 64.20 PLN, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allegro.eu S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (44.93 PLN to 83.46 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Allegro.eu S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The market capitalisation of Allegro.eu S.A. is 60.7B PLN (≈ $15.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allegro.eu S.A. is 4.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Earnings per share at Allegro.eu S.A. are 1.90 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The net margin of Allegro.eu S.A. is 13.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allegro.eu S.A. is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allegro.eu S.A. is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
The operating margin of Allegro.eu S.A. is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Revenue at Allegro.eu S.A. is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE)?
Earnings per share at Allegro.eu S.A. are growing +41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allegro.eu S.A. (ALE) carry?
The net debt of Allegro.eu S.A. is 2.5B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026