Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Amada Co. Ltd stock $46.48, price $56.68, that is 18.0% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.45 – $74.66 · fair‑value band $34.12 – $58.86 · the $56.68 price screens above the $46.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
Follow Amada Co. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Amada Co. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Amada Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, sells, and provides services for various machines that process metals, resins, ceramics, and other materials in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally.
Show moreShow less
It offers sheet metal fabrication machines to cut, punch, bend, weld, and process metal sheets; metal cutting machines, which rotate tools affixed with saw blades to cut materials; structural steel machines, which cut and drill steel frames including H-shaped steel; and grinding machines for finishing of products required in the semiconductor industry, an emergent core industry, as well as in the automotive and aerospace industries.
The company also provides micro welders, including laser welding and fine spot welding; micro laser markers; Stamping Press Automation Systems; Spring-Forming Machines; custom-made large press machine of 5,000kN and automation equipment; PCB drilling machines; and PCB laser processing machines.
In addition, it is involved in the manufacturing with processing technologies, such as marking, peeling, deburring, and trimming. The company was formerly known as Amada Holdings Co., Ltd. Amada Co., Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Isehara, Japan.
Stock analysis
Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) currently trades at $56.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.48, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $79.38 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $56.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.70, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.12 (bear) to $58.86 (bull), the price of $56.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Amada Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥437B in FY2026 versus ¥313B in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥30.6B in FY2026, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B Mid · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) $2.25 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −18%, AMDLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$34.12Fair Value $46.48Bull$58.86
Price $56.68 · Downside -18.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.39 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$59.77$87.28$129.4180
Growth DCF$60.37$84.38$118.7079
Owner Earnings$57.58$83.83$124.0376
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$59.77$87.28$129.4180
Owner Earnings$57.58$83.83$124.0376
5Y Revenue Exit$49.82$70.86$97.5973
5Y EBITDA Exit$60.58$91.25$127.2275
5Y P/E Exit$51.97$74.93$99.0971
10Y Revenue Exit$51.95$72.07$99.0367
10Y EBITDA Exit$59.82$86.21$121.7668
10Y P/E Exit$54.35$74.89$100.1864
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$17.25$57.29$76.6764
Lynch FV$12.96$18.52$24.0761
PEG = 1.0$12.96$18.52$24.0757
EPV$34.60$38.28$41.4874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$14.82$30.34$47.2966
DDM Multi-Stage$14.82$25.09$31.9166
Multiples
P/E Multiple$39.95$53.26$66.5863
P/S Multiple$32.34$43.12$53.9058
P/B Multiple$134.53$179.38$224.2255
EV/EBIT$53.49$69.29$85.1066
EV/EBITDA$60.82$79.07$97.3267
EV/Revenue$39.91$54.42$68.9254
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$14.32$21.70$27.1254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$60.37$84.38$118.7079
Rev-Margin DCF$49.82$71.06$96.0073
Economic Profit
Residual Income$34.84$35.94$38.5076
ROIC Compounder$34.60$38.28$41.4872
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$33.80$48.28$62.7767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.9% vs −10.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.8% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Amada's main strength is its semiconductor exposure via the Via Mechanics acquisition and ongoing share buybacks, while its main weak point remains the cyclical nature of machinery sales together with integration risks and low ROE.
Main risk: Integration risks from the Via Mechanics acquisition combined with the cyclical nature of machinery sales could pressure margins and demand.
Amada continues its share buybacks under the ¥50 billion program while Via Mechanics, acquired last year, boosts sales of drilling machines for advanced semiconductor packages tied to data center demand. Our models see the stock as overvalued even with these tailwinds and strong recent results. Will the semiconductor exposure and capital returns outweigh integration risks and the cyclical nature of machinery sales, or will margins limit the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 846 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.68× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.95× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.48 versus a price of $56.68, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMDLY?
Our model-based fair value for Amada Co. Ltd is $46.48 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.68.
What is the quality score of AMDLY?
Amada Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.48 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.12, optimistic scenario $58.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amada Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.48, about 18% lower versus a price of $56.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.12, optimistic scenario $58.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Amada Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥460B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Amada Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Amada Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Amada Co. Ltd has a dividend yield of 3.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 78.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.03 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amada Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMDLY use?
Our models discount Amada Co. Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Amada Co. Ltd that is +27.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Amada Co. Ltd grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Amada Co. Ltd (+27.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.74 %: that much free cash flow Amada Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amada Co. Ltd it is $46.48 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $56.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Amada Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, AMDLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $56.68, fair value $46.48, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMDLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.48). For Amada Co. Ltd the two are $10.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amada Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Amada Co. Ltd at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $56.68; our models calculate a fair value of $46.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMDLY?
Our models span a range for Amada Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $34.12, base $46.48, optimistic $58.86 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $56.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMDLY?
Amada Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2019 to 2024), reported earnings: 13.9. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amada Co. Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Amada Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amada Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $56.68, calculated fair value $46.48 (−18%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMDLY calculated?
We run Amada Co. Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $46.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Amada Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $56.68. Our model-based fair value is $46.48, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amada Co. Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Amada Co. Ltd grew −1.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.1 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Amada Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The market capitalisation of Amada Co. Ltd is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amada Co. Ltd is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Earnings per share at Amada Co. Ltd are $2.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The dividend yield of Amada Co. Ltd is 3.5% (payout 87.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The net margin of Amada Co. Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amada Co. Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amada Co. Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
The operating margin of Amada Co. Ltd is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Revenue at Amada Co. Ltd is growing +29.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY)?
Earnings per share at Amada Co. Ltd are growing +108% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Amada Co. Ltd (AMDLY) hold?
Amada Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥73.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Amada Co. Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Amada Co. Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 10, 2026