American States Water Company (AWR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American States Water Company stock $38.77, price $89.98, that is 56.9% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.56 – $93.18 · fair‑value band $25.14 – $59.26 · the $89.98 price screens above the $38.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services.
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The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, as well as distributes electricity. It provides water service to approximately 265,100 customers; and distributes electricity to approximately 24,900 customers in several San Bernardino County Mountain communities in California.
The company also offers water and/or wastewater services at various military installations. American States Water Company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in San Dimas, California.
Stock analysis
American States Water Company (AWR) currently trades at $89.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.77, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.06 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $89.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.65, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.14 (bear) to $59.26 (bull), the price of $89.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
American States Water Company reported revenue of $658M in FY2025 versus $499M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $130M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B Mid · P/E ratio 24.7 · P/S ratio 5.09 · EPS (TTM) $3.65 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 20.5% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −57%, AWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.14Fair Value $38.77Bull$59.26
Price $89.98 · Downside -56.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.40 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $50,235, on May 19, 2026. Over the same period, 3 people sold shares worth $277,662.
SaleDiana M BontaDirector546 shares at $88.80$48,485Sep 4, 2026
SaleAnne M HollowayDirector3× since Nov 11, 2025: 2,090 shares, avg. $81.38$170,083Aug 19, 2026
BuyAnne M HollowayDirector935 shares at $75.37$70,496May 19, 2026
SalePaul J RowleySVP OF OPERATIONS1,304 shares at $76.05$99,169May 15, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 7.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 31%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat of a regulated water utility delivers stable returns supported by military contracts, while negative free cash flow and limited differentiation remain the central constraints.
Main risk: Regulatory approval of rate cases and infrastructure spending could constrain returns on the core regulated utility operations.
American States Water earns a notable share of its results from long-term contracts to operate water systems on military bases, a segment that posted solid gains in the first half of the year alongside its core regulated utility. Rate cases and infrastructure spending shape most returns, yet this separate business adds revenue that is less tied to state commissions. Will the military contracts keep contributing steady incremental earnings, or will they prove more variable than the regulated base?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)20.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)35.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.7× · Pricier than median
P/B3.40× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.09× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.1× · Pricier than median
PEG2.98× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)56· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)45· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American States Water Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AWR
Frequently asked questions
Is American States Water Company (AWR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.77 versus a price of $89.98, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AWR?
Our model-based fair value for American States Water Company is $38.77 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $89.98.
What is the quality score of AWR?
American States Water Company has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American States Water Company (AWR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.77 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.14, optimistic scenario $59.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American States Water Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.77, about 57% lower versus a price of $89.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.14, optimistic scenario $59.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American States Water Company (AWR)?
American States Water Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $697M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does American States Water Company pay a dividend?
American States Water Company currently shows a dividend yield of 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of American States Water Company (AWR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
American States Water Company pays a dividend of $2.02 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026, with payment on Dec 2, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 55.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of American States Water Company (AWR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American States Water Company it is $38.77 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $89.98. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is American States Water Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AWR trades above its calculated fair value: price $89.98, fair value $38.77, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AWR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($89.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.77). For American States Water Company the two are $51.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American States Water Company worth?
The market values American States Water Company at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $89.98; our models calculate a fair value of $38.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AWR?
Our models span a range for American States Water Company: cautious scenario $25.14, base $38.77, optimistic $59.26 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $89.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AWR?
American States Water Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.77 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 33.4. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 3.4, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 16.1.
What is the PEG ratio of AWR?
The PEG ratio of American States Water Company is 2.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of American States Water Company (AWR)?
Balance-sheet figures for American States Water Company (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AWR from its 52-week high?
American States Water Company trades at $89.98, about 1% below its 52-week high of $91.10 and 31% above the low of $68.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American States Water Company?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American States Water Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $89.98, calculated fair value $38.77 (−57%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AWR calculated?
We run American States Water Company through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $38.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. American States Water Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $89.98. Our model-based fair value is $38.77, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American States Water Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($59.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($25.14 to $59.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of American States Water Company (AWR) come from?
Earnings per share at American States Water Company grew +8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American States Water Company
How large is the market capitalisation of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The market capitalisation of American States Water Company is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American States Water Company is 5.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American States Water Company (AWR)?
Earnings per share at American States Water Company are $3.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The dividend yield of American States Water Company is 2.2% (payout 55.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The net margin of American States Water Company is 20.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American States Water Company is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American States Water Company (AWR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American States Water Company is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American States Water Company (AWR)?
The operating margin of American States Water Company is 35.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American States Water Company (AWR)?
Revenue at American States Water Company is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American States Water Company (AWR)?
Earnings per share at American States Water Company are growing +25.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American States Water Company (AWR) generate?
The free cash flow of American States Water Company is −$7.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American States Water Company (AWR) carry?
The net debt of American States Water Company is $924M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026