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Community Bank System Inc (CBU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Community Bank System Inc stock $37.99, price $64.74, that is 41.3% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

CB Community Bank System Inc logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Community Bank System Inc

CBU · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 41% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 27.3% net margin (TTM)
2.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Quality 57/100
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $75,263 (6M) · sold $944,746
Fair value $37.99 · Strongly overvalued (−41.3%)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$70.44 $34.02 Fair Value $37.99 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $34.02 – $70.44 · fair‑value band $30.25 – $50.41 · the $64.74 price screens above the $37.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Community Financial System, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Community Bank, N.A. that provides various banking and other financial services to retail, commercial, institutional, and governmental customers.

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The company operates in four segments: Banking, Employee Benefit Services, Insurance Services and Wealth Management Services.

The Banking Segment offers lending and depository-related products and services; treasury management solutions and payment processing services, as well as certain corporate overhead-related expenses to individuals, businesses, and governmental units.

The Employee Benefit Segment provides employee benefit trust, collective investment fund, retirement plan and health savings account administration, fund administration, transfer agency, actuarial, health and welfare consulting services and introducing broker-dealer services.

The Insurance Services segment offers personal and commercial lines of insurance and other risk management products and services, as well as employee benefit related services.

The Wealth Management Services provides wealth management, retirement planning, higher educational planning, fiduciary, risk management, trust services, and personal financial planning services.

This segment also offers a range of investment products including stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, insurance, and advisory products. Community Financial System, Inc. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Syracuse, New York.

Stock analysis

Community Bank System Inc (CBU) currently trades at $64.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.99, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $40.33 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $64.74 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.60, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $30.25 (bear) to $50.41 (bull), the price of $64.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Community Bank System Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $634M in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $210M in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.4B Mid · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 3.99 · EPS (TTM) $4.42 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −41%, CBU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $30.25 Fair Value $37.99 Bull $50.41
Price $64.74 · Downside -41.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.15 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $34.05 $37.99 $48.16 76
DDM Multi-Stage $16.82 $29.25 $36.20 67
Gordon GGM $16.82 $34.42 $53.61 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $16.82 $34.42 $53.61 66
DDM Multi-Stage $16.82 $29.25 $36.20 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $39.18 $52.24 $65.29 63
P/B Multiple $21.32 $28.42 $35.53 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.15 $13.60 $20.30 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $34.05 $37.99 $48.16 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 82
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 71
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 45
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 61
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 83
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors bought shares worth $75,263, most recently on Sep 9, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $944,746. Buying cluster

  • BuySavneet SinghDirector400 shares at $62.47$24,988Sep 9, 2026
  • BuyJohn A VaccaroDirector317 shares at $63.11$20,006Aug 27, 2026
  • BuyBrenda M HallDirector476 shares at $63.59$30,269Aug 24, 2026
  • SaleMark J. BolusDirector12,191 shares at $67.00$816,786Jun 25, 2026
  • SaleEric StickelsDirector2× since Feb 3, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $64.37$257,460Jun 8, 2026
  • SaleJohn F. WhippleDirector4,246 shares at $65.17$276,712Feb 4, 2026
  • SaleSally A SteeleDirector4,000 shares at $64.12$256,480Feb 3, 2026
  • SaleMaureen A Gillan-MyerEVP, Chief Admin & HR Officer3,450 shares at $58.85$203,054Dec 29, 2025

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 6.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

CBU screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The main strength is expansion into fee-based services via the BPAS subsidiary and ESOP One acquisition, while the main weak point is the typical regional bank profile with limited signals of durable differentiation.
Main risk: Ongoing competition across the banking sector could limit growth in both traditional lending and the newer fee-based platform.
Community Financial System has grown its fee-based businesses beyond traditional lending through its BPAS subsidiary. The recent acquisition of ESOP One adds specialized employee stock ownership services to its benefits and insurance platform. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will this diversification deliver steadier results than peers focused mainly on net interest income, or will it stay a smaller part of the overall picture?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −41.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.8% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 27.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 38.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.71× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.99× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 14.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.62× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)50 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)47 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs CBU
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs CBU
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs CBU
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs CBU
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs CBU
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs CBU
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs CBU
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs CBU
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs CBU
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs CBU

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Community Bank System Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CBU

Frequently asked questions

Is Community Bank System Inc (CBU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.99 versus a price of $64.74, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CBU?
Our model-based fair value for Community Bank System Inc is $37.99 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.74.
What is the quality score of CBU?
Community Bank System Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.99 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.25, optimistic scenario $50.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Community Bank System Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.99, about 41% lower versus a price of $64.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.25, optimistic scenario $50.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Community Bank System Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $858M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Community Bank System Inc pay a dividend?
Community Bank System Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Community Bank System Inc (CBU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Community Bank System Inc pays a dividend of $1.90 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026, with payment on Jan 11, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 43.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Community Bank System Inc it is $37.99 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $64.74. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Community Bank System Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CBU trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.74, fair value $37.99, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CBU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.99). For Community Bank System Inc the two are $26.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Community Bank System Inc worth?
The market values Community Bank System Inc at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $64.74; our models calculate a fair value of $37.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CBU?
Our models span a range for Community Bank System Inc: cautious scenario $30.25, base $37.99, optimistic $50.41 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $64.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CBU?
Community Bank System Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 18.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CBU?
The PEG ratio of Community Bank System Inc is 2.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Community Bank System Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CBU from its 52-week high?
Community Bank System Inc trades at $64.74, about 8% below its 52-week high of $70.44 and 24% above the low of $52.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Community Bank System Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Community Bank System Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $64.74, calculated fair value $37.99 (−41%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CBU calculated?
We run Community Bank System Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $37.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Community Bank System Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $64.74. Our model-based fair value is $37.99, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Community Bank System Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Community Bank System Inc (CBU) come from?
Earnings per share at Community Bank System Inc grew +4.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin −3.5 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Community Bank System Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The market capitalisation of Community Bank System Inc is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Community Bank System Inc is 3.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Earnings per share at Community Bank System Inc are $4.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The dividend yield of Community Bank System Inc is 2.9% (payout 43.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The net margin of Community Bank System Inc is 27.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Community Bank System Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Community Bank System Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
The operating margin of Community Bank System Inc is 38.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Revenue at Community Bank System Inc is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Community Bank System Inc (CBU)?
Earnings per share at Community Bank System Inc are growing +11.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Community Bank System Inc (CBU) generate?
The free cash flow of Community Bank System Inc is $233M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Community Bank System Inc (CBU) carry?
The net debt of Community Bank System Inc is $445M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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