Capital Power Corporation (CPX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Capital Power Corporation stock C$16.29, price C$63.61, that is 74.4% below the price, quality 23 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$29.76 – C$75.95 · fair‑value band C$13.72 – C$23.86 · the C$63.61 price screens above the C$16.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Capital Power Corporation develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and flexible generation facilities in Canada and the United States. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, including wind, waste heat, solar, landfill gas, gas, and battery storage.
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It also manages its related electricity and natural gas portfolios by undertaking trading and marketing activities.
In addition, the company owns approximately 12 GW of gross power generation capacity in North America; 180 MW of renewable generation capacity in North Carolina; approximately 170 MW of new battery energy storage systems in Ontario.
Capital Power Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.
Stock analysis
Capital Power Corporation (CPX) currently trades at C$63.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$16.29, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of C$42.36 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$63.61 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$5.22, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$13.72 (bear) to C$23.86 (bull), the price of C$63.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Capital Power Corporation reported revenue of C$3.3B in FY2025 versus C$2.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$160M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$10.0B (≈ $7.1B) Mid · P/S ratio 2.67 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0500 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 23.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −74%, CPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$13.72Fair Value C$16.29BullC$23.86
Price C$63.61 · Downside -74.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.3% vs 1.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → −6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +59.7% a year for the price and +8.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The main strength lies in the multi-year Meta supply deal tying AI demand to existing assets, while the main weak point remains high leverage with low ROE and negative gross margins.
Main risk: Changes in carbon pricing policies or rules limiting natural gas generation could raise operating costs or restrict output at its thermal plants in Alberta and other markets.
Bull case: By securing additional long-term contracts with hyperscalers and upgrading existing gas assets for higher efficiency, the company could sustain contracted volumes and adapt to policy shifts.
Bear case: If carbon policies tighten or more efficient technologies emerge faster than expected, its gas generation could face higher costs, output limits or reduced demand from customers seeking lower-emission alternatives.
Capital Power locked in a multi-year supply deal for 250 megawatts with Meta's new Alberta data centre, scheduled to start in the second half of 2028 and served from its existing generation fleet. That structure ties AI-driven demand directly to operating assets rather than fresh construction. Our models still see the stock as overvalued. Will steady contracted volumes from hyperscalers outweigh the challenges of an independent power producer's cost structure and regulatory exposure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−74.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−32.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Capital Power Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPX
Frequently asked questions
Is Capital Power Corporation (CPX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$16.29 versus a price of C$63.61, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPX?
Our model-based fair value for Capital Power Corporation is C$16.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$63.61.
What is the quality score of CPX?
Capital Power Corporation has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$16.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$13.72, optimistic scenario C$23.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capital Power Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$16.29, about 74% lower versus a price of C$63.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$13.72, optimistic scenario C$23.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Capital Power Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Capital Power Corporation pay a dividend?
Capital Power Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Capital Power Corporation (CPX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Capital Power Corporation pays a dividend of C$2.69 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2009. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.11 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Capital Power Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +63.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPX use?
Our models discount Capital Power Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Capital Power Corporation that is +63.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Capital Power Corporation (CPX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Capital Power Corporation grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +63.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Capital Power Corporation (CPX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Capital Power Corporation (+63.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.47 %: that much free cash flow Capital Power Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capital Power Corporation it is C$16.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$63.61. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Capital Power Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CPX trades above its calculated fair value: price C$63.61, fair value C$16.29, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$63.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$16.29). For Capital Power Corporation the two are C$47.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capital Power Corporation worth?
The market values Capital Power Corporation at about C$10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$63.61; our models calculate a fair value of C$16.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPX?
Our models span a range for Capital Power Corporation: cautious scenario C$13.72, base C$16.29, optimistic C$23.86 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$63.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CPX?
The PEG ratio of Capital Power Corporation is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capital Power Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPX from its 52-week high?
Capital Power Corporation trades at C$63.61, about 16% below its 52-week high of C$75.95 and 14% above the low of C$55.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$16.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capital Power Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capital Power Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$63.61, calculated fair value C$16.29 (−74%), Quality Score 23/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPX calculated?
We run Capital Power Corporation through 16 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$16.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Capital Power Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$63.61. Our model-based fair value is C$16.29, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capital Power Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$23.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Capital Power Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The market capitalisation of Capital Power Corporation is C$10.0B (≈ $7.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capital Power Corporation is 2.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Earnings per share at Capital Power Corporation are C$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The dividend yield of Capital Power Corporation is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The net margin of Capital Power Corporation is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capital Power Corporation is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capital Power Corporation is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
The operating margin of Capital Power Corporation is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Revenue at Capital Power Corporation is growing −32.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capital Power Corporation (CPX)?
Earnings per share at Capital Power Corporation are growing −60.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Capital Power Corporation (CPX) carry?
The net debt of Capital Power Corporation is C$6.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026