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National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Bank of Greece S.A stock €10.41, price €16.28, that is 36.1% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services GR · ISIN GRS003003035

NB National Bank of Greece S.A logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

National Bank of Greece S.A

ETE · AT
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 41.1% net margin (TTM)
3.2% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Quality 55/100
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Fair value €10.41 · Strongly overvalued (−36.1%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr in EUR)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Neobanks like Revolut could lure customers🚩Resurgent non-performing loans could strain capital
Watch National Bank of Greece S.A for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€17.85 €1.81 Fair Value €10.41 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.81 – €17.85 · fair‑value band €8.25 – €12.58 · the €16.28 price screens above the €10.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

National Bank of Greece S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in Greece, the United Kingdom, North Macedonia, Romania, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Malta, Egypt, and Luxembourg.

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It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Trouble Assets Unit, Global Markets and Asset Management, Insurance, International Banking Operations, and Other segments.

The Retail Banking segment provides deposit, investment, bancassurance products, mortgage loans, consumer and small business lending, debit and credit cards, prepaid cards, and other traditional products and services for individual customers, professionals, and small-medium and small sized companies through its network of branches and digital businesses.

The Corporate & Investment Banking segment offers financial and investment advisory services, deposit accounts, loans, foreign exchange, and trade services for corporate customers; and lending services for large and medium-sized companies, as well as shipping finance services.

The Trouble Assets Unit segment manages various loans. The Global Markets and Asset Management segment is involved in treasury activities; and provision of asset management, custody, private equity, and brokerage services. The Insurance offers various insurance products.

The International Banking Operations segment offers traditional commercial banking, such as commercial and retail credit, trade financing, foreign exchange, and deposits; shipping finance; investment banking; and brokerage services through its foreign branches.

The Other segment engages in the real estate management and warehousing businesses. National Bank of Greece S.A. was founded in 1841 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

Stock analysis

National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) currently trades at €16.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.41, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €11.00 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €16.28 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.19, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €8.25 (bear) to €12.58 (bull), the price of €16.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

National Bank of Greece S.A reported revenue of €2.7B in FY2025 versus €2.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €16.0B Large · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 5.89 · EPS (TTM) €1.23 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 41.1% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −36%, ETE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €8.25 Fair Value €10.41 Bull €12.58
Price €16.28 · Downside -36.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6112 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income €9.18 €10.41 €12.58 76
Gordon GGM €5.46 €5.91 €6.59 69
DDM Multi-Stage €5.46 €6.60 €8.09 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €5.46 €5.91 €6.59 69
DDM Multi-Stage €5.46 €6.60 €8.09 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €12.52 €16.70 €20.87 63
P/B Multiple €3.97 €5.29 €6.62 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.62 €6.19 €9.24 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €9.18 €10.41 €12.58 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 32
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 76
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 58
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 70
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 29
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 61%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 37.6%/yr over ~11Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

ETE screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: High margins and capital strength shown in profits and buybacks stand as the main advantages, while limited durable moat signals and commoditized regional operations form the central weakness.
Main risk: Digital players such as Revolut with around one million Greek customers, especially younger ones, could draw deposits and lending business away from National Bank of Greece and pressure margins on standard banking products.
Bull case: By extending its AI agents and embedded banking initiatives National Bank of Greece could retain customers through superior digital services and offset competitive pressure from neobanks while managing asset quality via advanced risk tools.
Bear case: If neobanks capture significant market share and non-performing loans continue to rise National Bank of Greece might face sustained margin compression, higher capital requirements and reduced ability to grow its core lending and deposit franchise.
National Bank of Greece has invested 1.3 billion euros in technology over the past five years, completing core banking modernization and placing AI at the heart of its next model. Solid first-half profits and ongoing share buybacks show capital strength, yet the bank now moves from digital upgrades to AI-driven operations. Will efficiency and new revenue from AI exceed the investment burden and any shift away from traditional strengths?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −36.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 12.1% · Above median
Return on assets 1.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 41.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 59.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −0.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 13.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.89× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 5.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.72× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)63 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs ETE
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DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs ETE
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs ETE
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs ETE

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National Bank of Greece S.A: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Bank of Greece S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ETE

Frequently asked questions

Is National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.41 versus a price of €16.28, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ETE?
Our model-based fair value for National Bank of Greece S.A is €10.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.28.
What is the quality score of ETE?
National Bank of Greece S.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.25, optimistic scenario €12.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Bank of Greece S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.41, about 36% lower versus a price of €16.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €8.25, optimistic scenario €12.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
National Bank of Greece S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does National Bank of Greece S.A pay a dividend?
National Bank of Greece S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 3.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National Bank of Greece S.A pays a dividend of €0.515 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.2%. The dividend was cut; the year before it was €0.665 per share. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 41.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Bank of Greece S.A it is €10.41 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €16.28. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is National Bank of Greece S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ETE trades above its calculated fair value: price €16.28, fair value €10.41, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ETE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.41). For National Bank of Greece S.A the two are €5.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Bank of Greece S.A worth?
The market values National Bank of Greece S.A at about €16.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €16.28; our models calculate a fair value of €10.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ETE?
Our models span a range for National Bank of Greece S.A: cautious scenario €8.25, base €10.41, optimistic €12.58 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €16.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ETE?
National Bank of Greece S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 5.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.8, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ETE?
The PEG ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Bank of Greece S.A (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ETE from its 52-week high?
National Bank of Greece S.A trades at €16.28, about 9% below its 52-week high of €17.85 and 35% above the low of €12.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Bank of Greece S.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Bank of Greece S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €16.28, calculated fair value €10.41 (−36%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ETE calculated?
We run National Bank of Greece S.A through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €10.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. National Bank of Greece S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €16.28. Our model-based fair value is €10.41, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Bank of Greece S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€12.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of National Bank of Greece S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The market capitalisation of National Bank of Greece S.A is €16.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A is 5.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Greece S.A are €1.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The dividend yield of National Bank of Greece S.A is 3.2% (payout 41.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The net margin of National Bank of Greece S.A is 41.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Bank of Greece S.A is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Bank of Greece S.A is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The operating margin of National Bank of Greece S.A is 59.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Revenue at National Bank of Greece S.A is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Greece S.A are growing −2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) generate?
The free cash flow of National Bank of Greece S.A is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) carry?
The net debt of National Bank of Greece S.A is €1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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