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National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of National Bank of Greece S.A €14.89, price €17.04, upside -12.6%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · GR · ISIN GRS003003035

NB Some data Sep 24, 2026

National Bank of Greece S.A

ETE · AT

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €14.89 · Overvalued (−13%)
Quality 65/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.8 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 42.3% net margin (TTM)
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 68/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 17 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€17.68 €1.81 Fair Value €14.89 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.81 – €17.68 · fair‑value band €11.17 – €18.61 · the €17.04 price screens above the €14.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

National Bank of Greece S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in Greece, the United Kingdom, North Macedonia, Romania, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Malta, Egypt, and Luxembourg.

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National Bank of Greece S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in Greece, the United Kingdom, North Macedonia, Romania, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Malta, Egypt, and Luxembourg. It operates through Retail Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Trouble Assets Unit, Global Markets and Asset Management, Insurance, International Banking Operations, and Other segments. The Retail Banking segment provides deposit, investment, bancassurance products, mortgage loans, consumer and small business lending, debit and credit cards, prepaid cards, and other traditional products and services for individual customers, professionals, and small-medium and small sized companies through its network of branches and digital businesses. The Corporate & Investment Banking segment offers financial and investment advisory services, deposit accounts, loans, foreign exchange, and trade services for corporate customers; and lending services for large and medium-sized companies, as well as shipping finance services. The Trouble Assets Unit segment manages various loans. The Global Markets and Asset Management segment is involved in treasury activities; and provision of asset management, custody, private equity, and brokerage services. The Insurance offers various insurance products. The International Banking Operations segment offers traditional commercial banking, such as commercial and retail credit, trade financing, foreign exchange, and deposits; shipping finance; investment banking; and brokerage services through its foreign branches. The Other segment engages in the real estate management and warehousing businesses. National Bank of Greece S.A. was founded in 1841 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

Stock analysis

National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) currently trades at €17.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.89, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €14.10 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the €17.04 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.75, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €11.17 (bear) to €18.61 (bull), the price of €17.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

National Bank of Greece S.A reported revenue of €2.7B in FY2025 versus €2.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was €1.2B in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €15.4B · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 5.88 · EPS (TTM) €1.25 · Net margin 43.1% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin 61.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −13%, ETE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €11.17 Fair Value €14.89 Bull €18.61
Model Each model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.9144 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence Evidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €9.53 €11.64 €25.97 70
P/E Multiple €12.58 €16.78 €20.97 63
P/B Multiple €10.58 €14.10 €17.63 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple €12.58 €16.78 €20.97 63
P/B Multiple €10.58 €14.10 €17.63 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €5.04 €6.75 €10.07 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €9.53 €11.64 €25.97 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality Growth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) What the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes This turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−23.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect Analysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.9% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.5%

ETE screens 14% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

Recent news

News mood News mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 42% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 6.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 5.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.72× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)32 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)49 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Bank of Greece S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ETE

Frequently asked questions

Is National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.89 versus a price of €17.04, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ETE?
Our model-based fair value for National Bank of Greece S.A is €14.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €17.04.
What is the quality score of ETE?
National Bank of Greece S.A has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.17, optimistic scenario €18.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Bank of Greece S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.89, about −13% upside versus a price of €17.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €11.17, optimistic scenario €18.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
National Bank of Greece S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Bank of Greece S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -23.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ETE use?
Our models discount National Bank of Greece S.A at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Bank of Greece S.A that is -23.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Bank of Greece S.A grew +0.8 % a year. The price currently implies -23.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Bank of Greece S.A (-23.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.58 %: that much free cash flow National Bank of Greece S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Bank of Greece S.A it is €14.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €17.04. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Bank of Greece S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ETE trades above its calculated fair value: price €17.04, fair value €14.89, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ETE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€17.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.89). For National Bank of Greece S.A the two are €2.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Bank of Greece S.A worth?
The market values National Bank of Greece S.A at about €15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €17.04; our models calculate a fair value of €14.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ETE?
Our models span a range for National Bank of Greece S.A: cautious scenario €11.17, base €14.89, optimistic €18.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €17.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ETE?
National Bank of Greece S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.0, P/S 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ETE?
The PEG ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Bank of Greece S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ETE from its 52-week high?
National Bank of Greece S.A trades at €17.04, about 4% below its 52-week high of €17.68 and 47% above the low of €11.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Bank of Greece S.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Bank of Greece S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €17.04, calculated fair value €14.89 (−13%), Quality Score 65/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ETE calculated?
We run National Bank of Greece S.A through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. National Bank of Greece S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €17.04. Our model-based fair value is €14.89, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Bank of Greece S.A right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of National Bank of Greece S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The market capitalisation of National Bank of Greece S.A is €15.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Bank of Greece S.A is 5.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Greece S.A are €1.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The net margin of National Bank of Greece S.A is 43.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Bank of Greece S.A is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Bank of Greece S.A is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
The operating margin of National Bank of Greece S.A is 61.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Revenue at National Bank of Greece S.A is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Bank of Greece S.A (ETE)?
Earnings per share at National Bank of Greece S.A are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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