Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Etsy, Inc. stock $101, price $89.93, upside +12.0%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.80 – $296.91 · fair‑value band $70.47 – $130.88 · the $89.93 price screens below the $100.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through Etsy and Depop segments.
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The company operates Etsy marketplace that connects artisans with various consumers; and Depop, a fashion resale marketplace.
It also provides marketplace activities, including transaction offsite advertising, payments processing, and listing fees, as well as from optional seller services, which include on-site advertising and shipping labels.
The company was formerly known as Indieco, Inc changed its name to Etsy, Inc. in June 2006. Etsy, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.
Stock analysis
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) currently trades at $89.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $100.68, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $103.05 per share, and 6 of the 21 models we run sit above the $89.93 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $17.02, and 15 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $70.47 (bear) to $130.88 (bull), the price of $89.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Etsy, Inc. reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $163M in FY2025, compounding −24.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.8B Large · P/E ratio 23.9 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) $3.76 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity −1,225% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 21.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 12%, ETSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$70.47Fair Value $100.68Bull$130.88
Price $89.93 · Upside +12.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $59.9M and none bought.
SaleCharles BakerChief Financial Officer4× since Feb 24, 2026: 12,639 shares, avg. $63.51$802,649Nov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJosh SilvermanDirector22× since Dec 1, 2025: 993,784 shares, avg. $70.49$70.1MNov 2, 2026
SaleFrederick R WilsonDirector6× since May 22, 2026: 128,527 shares, avg. $77.84$10.0MOct 29, 2026
SaleMarla J BlowDirector5× since Nov 20, 2025: 7,200 shares, avg. $87.01$626,473Oct 29, 2026
SaleBradley MinorChief Marketing Officer4,444 shares at $92.33$410,315Oct 29, 2026
SaleMelissa ReiffDirector3× since Jun 17, 2026: 8,341 shares, avg. $81.32$678,255Oct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMerilee BuckleyCHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER6× since Jan 5, 2026: 15,387 shares, avg. $70.83$1.1MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRichard Edward Colburn IIIChief Product & Tech Officer5× since Feb 23, 2026: 22,913 shares, avg. $73.15$1.7MOct 5, 2026
SaleCharles Andrew BallardDirector2× since Mar 4, 2026: 6,290 shares, avg. $74.42$468,100Aug 26, 2026
Plus 41 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 13%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Etsy's push into machine learning and personalization after the Depop sale forms its main strength for engagement, yet the limited durable moat together with negative equity and high debt stands as the chief weakness.
Main risk: Generative AI systems could flood the platform with low-cost digital and design alternatives, eroding buyer trust in authenticity and pressuring prices and margins for human-made items.
Bull case: By enforcing stricter AI rules and using its systems for machine learning for superior curation of authentic human-made listings, Etsy could reinforce its differentiation and regain seller and buyer loyalty.
Bear case: If AI-generated listings continue to proliferate unchecked and sellers migrate to stricter alternatives, Etsy could lose its core identity as a handmade marketplace and see sustained erosion of engagement and listings.
Etsy sold its Depop subsidiary and restructured to redirect resources toward machine learning and personalization in the core marketplace. The goal is to lift engagement where active buyers have stayed roughly flat and purchase frequency still lags despite some recent moderation. Will these changes drive lasting improvement in buyer loyalty or fall short against shifting consumer habits?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets5.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)32.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.9× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.58× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA23.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.97× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)49· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 61
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Etsy, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ETSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $100.68 versus a price of $89.93, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ETSY?
Our model-based fair value for Etsy, Inc. is $100.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $89.93.
What is the quality score of ETSY?
Etsy, Inc. has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $100.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $70.47, optimistic scenario $130.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Etsy, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $100.68, about +12% upside versus a price of $89.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $70.47, optimistic scenario $130.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Etsy, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Etsy, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ETSY use?
Our models discount Etsy, Inc. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Etsy, Inc. that is +13.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Etsy, Inc. grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Etsy, Inc. (+13.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.92 %: that much free cash flow Etsy, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Etsy, Inc. it is $100.68 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $89.93. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Etsy, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ETSY trades below its calculated fair value: price $89.93, fair value $100.68, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ETSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($89.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($100.68). For Etsy, Inc. the two are $10.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Etsy, Inc. worth?
The market values Etsy, Inc. at about $10.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $89.93; our models calculate a fair value of $100.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ETSY?
Our models span a range for Etsy, Inc.: cautious scenario $70.47, base $100.68, optimistic $130.88 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $89.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ETSY?
Etsy, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $100.68 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 64.7 (reported for FY2025: 68.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 49.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ETSY?
The PEG ratio of Etsy, Inc. is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Etsy, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ETSY from its 52-week high?
Etsy, Inc. trades at $89.93, about 7% below its 52-week high of $96.24 and 104% above the low of $44.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $100.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Etsy, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Etsy, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $89.93, calculated fair value $100.68 (+12%), Quality Score 76/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ETSY calculated?
We run Etsy, Inc. through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $100.68 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Etsy, Inc. currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $89.93. Our model-based fair value is $100.68, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Etsy, Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($70.47 to $130.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Etsy, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The market capitalisation of Etsy, Inc. is $10.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Etsy, Inc. is 1.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Earnings per share at Etsy, Inc. are $3.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The net margin of Etsy, Inc. is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Etsy, Inc. is −1,225% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Etsy, Inc. is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
The operating margin of Etsy, Inc. is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Revenue at Etsy, Inc. is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)?
Earnings per share at Etsy, Inc. are growing +22.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) hold?
Etsy, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $653M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026