Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Diamondback Energy Inc stock $243, price $180, upside +35.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.93 – $212.08 · fair‑value band $155.39 – $315.43 · the $179.58 price screens below the $242.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States.
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The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.
Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Stock analysis
Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) currently trades at $179.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $242.64, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $308.96 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $179.58 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $75.04, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $155.39 (bear) to $315.43 (bull), the price of $179.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Diamondback Energy Inc reported revenue of $15.0B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding −6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $52.5B Large · P/E ratio 34.2 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) $5.25 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 35%, FANG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$155.39Fair Value $242.64Bull$315.43
Price $179.58 · Upside +35.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8521 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $63.6M and none bought.
SaleCharles Alvin MeloyDirector9× since Dec 4, 2025: 637,911 shares, avg. $156.35$99.7MOct 5, 2026
SaleLyndal Greth10% owner9,079,675 shares at $205.26$1.9BSep 16, 2026
SaleSGF FANG Holdings, LP10% owner6× since Nov 28, 2025: 36,729,675 shares, avg. $187.12$6.9BSep 16, 2026
SaleTeresa L. DickEVP Accounting, Assist. Sec.8× since Mar 6, 2026: 42,500 shares, avg. $198.55$8.4MSep 15, 2026
SaleMatt ZmigroskyEVP, Chief Legal and Admin Off8× since Nov 14, 2025: 47,326 shares, avg. $188.14$8.9MSep 15, 2026
SaleTravis D. SticeDirector2× since Mar 6, 2026: 175,000 shares, avg. $191.06$33.4MSep 11, 2026
SaleMark Lawrence PlaumannDirector2× since Jun 9, 2026: 1,500 shares, avg. $205.89$308,830Aug 21, 2026
SaleDaniel N WessonExec. VP & COO4× since Nov 26, 2025: 36,500 shares, avg. $186.11$6.8MAug 20, 2026
SaleHof Matthew Kaes Van'tChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Mar 6, 2026: 40,000 shares, avg. $202.31$8.1MAug 20, 2026
SaleJere W Thompson IIICFO, Executive VP5× since Nov 11, 2025: 4,000 shares, avg. $181.52$726,073Aug 14, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +42.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.5% vs 4.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−195% → 33%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Strict production discipline supports resilient free cash flow and balance sheet strength, yet the commoditized E&P business offers limited differentiation and low pricing power.
Main risk: Ongoing antitrust lawsuits allege Diamondback and peers conspired to limit shale output to raise prices, which could result in legal costs, settlements or operational constraints affecting its Permian production and margins.
Bull case: Diamondback could leverage its Permian scale, operational efficiency and power projects for data centers to offset any legal or export pressures by securing stable cash flows from diversified energy uses.
Bear case: Prolonged antitrust proceedings or an export ban might raise costs, limit flexibility and compress margins on core Permian output, constraining the company's ability to maintain production discipline amid shifting energy markets.
Diamondback maintains strict production discipline in the Permian even amid oil price swings. This supports resilient free cash flow and balance sheet priorities over rapid output growth. Does the restraint build more lasting value than chasing higher volumes would?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside+35.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)48.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)52.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)34.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.23× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.0× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Diamondback Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FANG
Frequently asked questions
Is Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $242.64 versus a price of $179.58, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FANG?
Our model-based fair value for Diamondback Energy Inc is $242.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $179.58.
What is the quality score of FANG?
Diamondback Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $242.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $155.39, optimistic scenario $315.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Diamondback Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $242.64, about +35% upside versus a price of $179.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $155.39, optimistic scenario $315.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Diamondback Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Diamondback Energy Inc pay a dividend?
Diamondback Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Diamondback Energy Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FANG use?
Our models discount Diamondback Energy Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Diamondback Energy Inc that is -3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Diamondback Energy Inc grew +39.8 % a year. The price currently implies -3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Diamondback Energy Inc (-3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.37 %: that much free cash flow Diamondback Energy Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Diamondback Energy Inc it is $242.64 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $179.58. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Diamondback Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FANG trades below its calculated fair value: price $179.58, fair value $242.64, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FANG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($179.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($242.64). For Diamondback Energy Inc the two are $63.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Diamondback Energy Inc worth?
The market values Diamondback Energy Inc at about $52.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $179.58; our models calculate a fair value of $242.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FANG?
Our models span a range for Diamondback Energy Inc: cautious scenario $155.39, base $242.64, optimistic $315.43 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $179.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FANG?
Diamondback Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $242.64 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.4 (reported for FY2025: 30.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 9.9. Other multiples: PEG 10.4, P/B 1.4, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of FANG?
The PEG ratio of Diamondback Energy Inc is 10.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Diamondback Energy Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FANG from its 52-week high?
Diamondback Energy Inc trades at $179.58, about 15% below its 52-week high of $212.08 and 34% above the low of $134.06 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $242.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Diamondback Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Diamondback Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $179.58, calculated fair value $242.64 (+35%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FANG calculated?
We run Diamondback Energy Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $242.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Diamondback Energy Inc currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $179.58. Our model-based fair value is $242.64, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Diamondback Energy Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. A fairly wide model range ($155.39 to $315.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Diamondback Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The market capitalisation of Diamondback Energy Inc is $52.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Diamondback Energy Inc is 3.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Earnings per share at Diamondback Energy Inc are $5.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The dividend yield of Diamondback Energy Inc is 2.4% (payout 35.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 81.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The net margin of Diamondback Energy Inc is 9.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Diamondback Energy Inc is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Diamondback Energy Inc is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
The operating margin of Diamondback Energy Inc is 48.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Revenue at Diamondback Energy Inc is growing +52.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)?
Earnings per share at Diamondback Energy Inc are growing +180% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG) carry?
The net debt of Diamondback Energy Inc is $14.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026