Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Frontier Developments Plc stock £15.75, price £5.42, upside +190.6%, quality 92 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.04 – £27.68 · fair‑value band £11.02 – £20.47 · the £5.42 price screens below the £15.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Frontier Developments plc develops and publishes video games for the interactive entertainment sector. It develops games using its cross-platform technology, Cobra. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) currently trades at £5.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £15.75, implying the stock looks roughly 66% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £18.30 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the £5.42 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £4.79, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £11.02 (bear) to £20.47 (bull), the price of £5.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 92/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Frontier Developments Plc reported revenue of £105M in FY2026 versus £114M in FY2022, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was £27.3M in FY2026, compounding +29.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £210M Micro · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) £0.7000 · Net margin 26.0% · Return on equity 27.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 38.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 191%, FDEV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£11.02Fair Value £15.75Bull£20.47
Price £5.42 · Upside +190.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.3145 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.2% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.3% vs 31.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.2% a year for the price and −6.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Focus on evergreen Planet franchises has delivered record operating profits, yet thin public data leaves durable advantages unproven amid gaming competition.
Main risk: Adding Planet Zoo 2 and a Disney collaboration risks stretching resources and disrupting the one-title-per-year cadence that supports long-term player engagement.
Frontier has delivered record adjusted operating profit by concentrating on creative management simulation games and evergreen franchises like the Planet series. Planet Zoo 2 launched this month while a new Disney collaboration expands the pipeline with licensed IP. Will the additions reinforce the disciplined one-title-per-year cadence and long-term player engagement or stretch resources across more varied projects?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 181 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £15.75 versus a price of £5.42, about +191% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FDEV?
Our model-based fair value for Frontier Developments Plc is £15.75 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.42.
What is the quality score of FDEV?
Frontier Developments Plc has a Quality Score of 92/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £15.75 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £11.02, optimistic scenario £20.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Frontier Developments Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £15.75, about +191% upside versus a price of £5.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £11.02, optimistic scenario £20.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Frontier Developments Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £105M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Frontier Developments Plc would have to grow free cash flow by -17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FDEV use?
Our models discount Frontier Developments Plc at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Frontier Developments Plc that is -17.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Frontier Developments Plc grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -17.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Frontier Developments Plc (-17.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.95 %: that much free cash flow Frontier Developments Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontier Developments Plc it is £15.75 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of £5.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Frontier Developments Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, FDEV trades below its calculated fair value: price £5.42, fair value £15.75, a gap of about +191% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£15.75). For Frontier Developments Plc the two are £10.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Frontier Developments Plc worth?
The market values Frontier Developments Plc at about £210M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is £5.42; our models calculate a fair value of £15.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDEV?
Our models span a range for Frontier Developments Plc: cautious scenario £11.02, base £15.75, optimistic £20.47 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price £5.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FDEV?
Frontier Developments Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £15.75 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 36.9. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Frontier Developments Plc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 27.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 92/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FDEV from its 52-week high?
Frontier Developments Plc trades at £5.42, about 16% below its 52-week high of £6.43 and 84% above the low of £2.94 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £15.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Frontier Developments Plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Frontier Developments Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price £5.42, calculated fair value £15.75 (+191%), Quality Score 92/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FDEV calculated?
We run Frontier Developments Plc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £15.75 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Frontier Developments Plc currently trades 66% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was £5.42. Our model-based fair value is £15.75, about +191% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Frontier Developments Plc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (92/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£11.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (£11.02 to £20.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Frontier Developments Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The market capitalisation of Frontier Developments Plc is £210M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Frontier Developments Plc is 2.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Developments Plc are £0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The net margin of Frontier Developments Plc is 26.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Frontier Developments Plc is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontier Developments Plc is −5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
The operating margin of Frontier Developments Plc is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Revenue at Frontier Developments Plc is growing +4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Developments Plc are growing +71.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV) hold?
Frontier Developments Plc holds more cash than debt, £26.3M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 11, 2026