CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what CD PROJEKT SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Communication Services · PL · Market cap 23.4B PLN (≈ $6.3B) · ISIN PLOPTTC00011
At a glance
CPCD PROJEKT SACDR · WAR
Price232.30 PLN
Fair Value64.48 PLN
Upside−72.2%
Quality68/100
A solid business, but trading 260% above our fair value of 64.48 PLN.
As of Sep 10, 2026, the fair value of CD PROJEKT SA is 64.48 PLN per share against a price of 232.30 PLN, so the fair value sits 72% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 67.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
✓Wide moat 87/100
!The models disagree: range 48.58 PLN to 177.71 PLN
!Weak on dividend: 9 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange 48.58 PLN to 177.71 PLN
Fair value as of: Sep 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (177.71 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The model range is unusually wide (48.58 PLN to 177.71 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 76.45 PLN – 293.10 PLN · fair‑value band 48.58 PLN – 177.71 PLN · the 232.30 PLN price screens above the 64.48 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) currently trades at 232.30 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 64.48 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 260.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 244.98 PLN per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 232.30 PLN price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 16.10 PLN, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, CD PROJEKT SA generated revenue of 878M PLN at a net margin of 67.1%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 88.1M PLN. Fundamentals as of Sep 10, 2026
Scenario range: 48.58 PLN (bear) to 177.71 PLN (bull), the price of 232.30 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −72%, CDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.92 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio45.4
P/S ratio27.6P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)5.12 PLNprice ÷ EPS = P/E 45.4
Dividend yield0.4%payout 19.9%
Net margin60.8%FY2025
Return on equity16.4%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)14.1%avg 5y
Operating margin51.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)878M PLNTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+6.1%3y avg −3.1%
EPS growth (YoY)−5.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow538M PLNFY2025
Net cash88.1M PLNFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality68/100
Of which business quality 67
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance80
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
Full company description
CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CD PROJEKT SA reported revenue of 867M PLN in FY2025 versus 888M PLN in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 527M PLN in FY2025, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
867M PLN
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+20.3%
Dividend yield0.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 20.3% vs 10Y 7.3%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54.1% (2020) → 53.3% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop238% (2010) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in PLN
Revenue−0.6%/yr
FY21888M PLN
FY22953M PLN
FY231.2B PLN
FY24985M PLN
FY25867M PLN
Net income+26.0%/yr
FY21209M PLN
FY22347M PLN
FY23481M PLN
FY24470M PLN
FY25527M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+10.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share+7.9 %
of which total revenue +8.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
EBIT margin−1.8 %
Tax rate+2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CD PROJEKT SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CDR
Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 151 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Above median
Fair Value upside−72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)67% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)45.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.12× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF11.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.6× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must CD PROJEKT SA deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+16.9 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-16.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.9 %
FCF yield on price2.30 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.3 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 27
FUTURE31· sector 7
PAST65· sector 13
HEALTH100· sector 99
DIVIDEND9· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 10, 2026).
As of Sep 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 64.48 PLN versus a price of 232.30 PLN, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CDR?
Our model-based fair value for CD PROJEKT SA is 64.48 PLN (as of Sep 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 232.30 PLN.
What is the quality score of CDR?
CD PROJEKT SA has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 64.48 PLN (as of Sep 10, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 48.58 PLN, optimistic scenario 177.71 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CD PROJEKT SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 64.48 PLN, about −72% upside versus a price of 232.30 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 48.58 PLN, optimistic scenario 177.71 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
CD PROJEKT SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 878M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CDR?
The net profit margin of CD PROJEKT SA is about 67.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 67.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CD PROJEKT SA pay a dividend?
CD PROJEKT SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CD PROJEKT SA would have to grow free cash flow by +16.9 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.5 % per year. As of Sep 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CDR use?
Our models discount CD PROJEKT SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CD PROJEKT SA it is 64.48 PLN per share (as of Sep 10, 2026), against a price of 232.30 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CD PROJEKT SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 10, 2026, CDR trades above its calculated fair value: price 232.30 PLN, fair value 64.48 PLN, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (232.30 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (64.48 PLN). For CD PROJEKT SA the two are 167.82 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CD PROJEKT SA worth?
The market values CD PROJEKT SA at about 23.4B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 10, 2026). Per share that is 232.30 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 64.48 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CDR?
Our models span a range for CD PROJEKT SA: cautious scenario 48.58 PLN, base 64.48 PLN, optimistic 177.71 PLN per share (as of Sep 10, 2026, price 232.30 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CDR?
CD PROJEKT SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.4 (as of Sep 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 64.48 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for CD PROJEKT SA (as of Sep 10, 2026): return on equity 16.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CDR from its 52-week high?
CD PROJEKT SA trades at 232.30 PLN, about 22% below its 52-week high of 297.00 PLN and 4% above the low of 223.20 PLN (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 64.48 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CD PROJEKT SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, NetEase, Inc, Electronic Arts Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CD PROJEKT SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 10, 2026: price 232.30 PLN, calculated fair value 64.48 PLN (−72%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDR calculated?
We run CD PROJEKT SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 64.48 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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