Frontier Developments plc (FDEV) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · GB · Market cap 146M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 91% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (79/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£6.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.02 – £27.44 · fair‑value band £6.01 – £10.02 · the £4.20 price screens below the £8.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Frontier Developments plc (FDEV) currently trades at £4.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £8.02, implying the stock looks roughly 91.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Frontier Developments plc generated revenue of £103M at a net margin of 19.4%. Revenue grew 26.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £23.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £6.01 (bear case) to £10.02 (bull case); at £4.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at 91%, FDEV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£15.65) versus Dividend Discount (£0.9600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Frontier Developments plc develops and publishes video games for the interactive entertainment sector. It develops games using its cross-platform technology, Cobra. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Frontier Developments plc reported revenue of £90.6M in FY2025 versus £90.7M in FY2021, a compound −0.0%/yr. Reported net income was £16.4M in FY2025, compounding −6.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NetEase, Inc 9999 | HK$202.60 | HK$192.74 | -5% |
| Electronic Arts Inc EA | $207.27 | $76.57 | -63% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $237.04 | $60.45 | -74% |
| Roblox Corporation RBLX | $57.07 | $21.20 | -63% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.04 | ¥14.68 | +5% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 240,500 KRW | 395,557 KRW | +64% |
| Kunlun Tech Co 300418 | ¥44.61 | ¥6.87 | -85% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥29.98 | ¥15.69 | -48% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 704.00 TWD | 568.16 TWD | -19% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥19.02 | ¥22.29 | +17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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