Bilfinger SE (GBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bilfinger SE stock €100, price €61.40, upside +62.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.55 – €123.87 · fair‑value band €75.04 – €125.07 · the €61.40 price screens below the €100.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Bilfinger SE provides industrial services to customers in the process industry primarily in Europe, North America, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Engineering & Maintenance Europe; Engineering & Maintenance International; and Technologies.
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The company offers engineering, project, maintenance, turnaround, rotating equipment, inspection, insulation, scaffolding, corrosion protection, mechanical, electrical, instrumentation, control, digital services, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants.
It also provides services in the field of nuclear energy, battery production, district heating and waste heat, hydropower, waste recycling and wastewater treatment, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, wind power, biogas, and environmental tech.
In addition, the company offers consulting and engineering; prefabrication and installation; and access and insulation services, as well as maintenance, engineering, extension, new construction, and operation of industrial plants.
The company serves customers in energy, chemicals and petrochemicals, pharma and biopharma, and oil and gas industries. Bilfinger SE was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Mannheim, Germany.
Stock analysis
Bilfinger SE (GBF) currently trades at €61.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €100.05, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €128.95 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €61.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €28.58, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €75.04 (bear) to €125.07 (bull), the price of €61.40 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bilfinger SE reported revenue of €5.4B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was €176M in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.3B Mid · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) €5.02 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 63%, GBF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€75.04Fair Value €100.05Bull€125.07
Price €61.40 · Upside +62.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Per share before 2009divided by the spin-off factor 1.0842
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.1% vs −2.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.9% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited public data shows no clear durable advantages while modest margins require restructuring to regain flexibility after project delays.
Main risk: Repeated deferrals of projects especially in Central Europe would keep margins under pressure longer than expected.
Bilfinger lowered its 2026 revenue and margin guidance after customers postponed work, especially in Central Europe, and is now rolling out Program Agile with up to 1,500 job reductions and one-time costs to improve flexibility. Management stresses the projects are delayed rather than canceled and leaves its 2030 growth and profitability targets unchanged. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but will the restructuring deliver lasting efficiency gains before demand rebounds, or will repeated deferrals keep margins under pressure longer than expected?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.41× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bilfinger SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBF
Frequently asked questions
Is Bilfinger SE (GBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €100.05 versus a price of €61.40, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GBF?
Our model-based fair value for Bilfinger SE is €100.05 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €61.40.
What is the quality score of GBF?
Bilfinger SE has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €100.05 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €75.04, optimistic scenario €125.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bilfinger SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €100.05, about +63% upside versus a price of €61.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €75.04, optimistic scenario €125.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Bilfinger SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Bilfinger SE pay a dividend?
Bilfinger SE currently shows a dividend yield of 4.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bilfinger SE would have to grow free cash flow by -13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GBF use?
Our models discount Bilfinger SE at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bilfinger SE that is -13.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bilfinger SE (GBF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bilfinger SE grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -13.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bilfinger SE (GBF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bilfinger SE (-13.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.18 %: that much free cash flow Bilfinger SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bilfinger SE it is €100.05 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €61.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Bilfinger SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, GBF trades below its calculated fair value: price €61.40, fair value €100.05, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€61.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€100.05). For Bilfinger SE the two are €38.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bilfinger SE worth?
The market values Bilfinger SE at about €2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €61.40; our models calculate a fair value of €100.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBF?
Our models span a range for Bilfinger SE: cautious scenario €75.04, base €100.05, optimistic €125.07 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €61.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBF?
Bilfinger SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €100.05 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.2. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of GBF?
The PEG ratio of Bilfinger SE is 3.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bilfinger SE (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBF from its 52-week high?
Bilfinger SE trades at €61.40, about 50% below its 52-week high of €123.87 and 14% above the low of €53.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €100.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bilfinger SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bilfinger SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €61.40, calculated fair value €100.05 (+63%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBF calculated?
We run Bilfinger SE through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €100.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Bilfinger SE currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €61.40. Our model-based fair value is €100.05, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bilfinger SE right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€75.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Bilfinger SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The market capitalisation of Bilfinger SE is €2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bilfinger SE is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Earnings per share at Bilfinger SE are €5.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The dividend yield of Bilfinger SE is 4.6% (payout 55.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The net margin of Bilfinger SE is 3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bilfinger SE is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bilfinger SE is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
The operating margin of Bilfinger SE is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Revenue at Bilfinger SE is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bilfinger SE (GBF)?
Earnings per share at Bilfinger SE are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bilfinger SE (GBF) hold?
Bilfinger SE holds more cash than debt, €146M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026