Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited stock THB 67.10, price THB 61.25, upside +9.6%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range 38.09 THB – 67.75 THB · fair‑value band 50.33 THB – 134.82 THB · the 61.25 THB price screens below the 67.10 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Gulf Development Public Company Limited generates and sells electricity and steam to public and private clients in Thailand and internationally. The company operates through Power Business, Consulting Business, Infrastructure Business and Satellite and Digital Business segments.
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It generates electricity through gas-fired, solar, biomass hydroelectric, waste-to-energy, and wind power projects under independent power producers and small power producers.
The company undertakes infrastructure and logistics projects; distributes, supplies, and sells natural gas; and operates a digital infrastructure.
In addition, the company is involved in the management, technical support, technology, investment services; storing and converting natural gas; satellite and related services; sale of direct television and satellite equipment; transponder services; engineering and development services; broadband network and content services; and broadcasting, television, and telecommunication services.
Further, it provides system integration consultancy services for broadband network and technology systems, products and services related to artificial intelligence and space technology. Gulf Development Public Company Limited was founded in 2007 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) currently trades at 61.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 67.10 THB, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 174.86 THB per share, and 8 of the 21 models we run sit above the 61.25 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 10.18 THB, and 13 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 50.33 THB (bear) to 134.82 THB (bull), the price of 61.25 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited reported revenue of 98.9B THB in FY2025 versus 47.5B THB in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was 80.0B THB in FY2025, compounding +79.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 915B THB (≈ $27.3B) Large · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 9.73 · EPS (TTM) 5.09 THB · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 80.9% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 10%, GULF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear50.33 THBFair Value 67.10 THBBull134.82 THB
Price 61.25 THB · Upside +9.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.14 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +64.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.52.3% vs 63.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 16%
2025 sits 323% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.5% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High reported margins and ROE signal moderate business quality, yet this is offset by limited differentiation typical of IPP utilities and notably weak cash conversion.
Main risk: Aggressive expansion with sizable committed capital expenditures could push debt to EBITDA ratios above 7 times and increase refinancing costs or trigger rating actions, hitting margins and cash flows.
Bull case: Successful completion of the INTUCH amalgamation could strengthen the financial profile and provide additional dividend income to support debt management and project execution.
Bear case: If debt levels rise sharply or overseas tariff and market issues persist, higher interest costs and delayed revenues could constrain cash flows and limit further growth initiatives.
GULF keeps adding renewable capacity through a stake in two Thai solar farms that carry long-term PPAs with EGAT and start operations in 2029. That move supports the target of lifting renewables to at least 40 percent of the portfolio by 2035, yet the group is also building data-center infrastructure at the same time. Will the predictable cash flows from contracted power assets more than offset the ramp-up risks in the digital side?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+9.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)26.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GULF
Frequently asked questions
Is Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 67.10 THB versus a price of 61.25 THB, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GULF?
Our model-based fair value for Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 67.10 THB (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 61.25 THB.
What is the quality score of GULF?
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 67.10 THB (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 50.33 THB, optimistic scenario 134.82 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 67.10 THB, about +10% upside versus a price of 61.25 THB (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 50.33 THB, optimistic scenario 134.82 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 142B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +30.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.7 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GULF use?
Our models discount Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited that is +30.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited grew +24.7 % a year. The price currently implies +30.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (+30.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.30 %: that much free cash flow Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited it is 67.10 THB per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 61.25 THB. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, GULF trades below its calculated fair value: price 61.25 THB, fair value 67.10 THB, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GULF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (61.25 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (67.10 THB). For Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited the two are 5.85 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited at about 915B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 61.25 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 67.10 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GULF?
Our models span a range for Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 50.33 THB, base 67.10 THB, optimistic 134.82 THB per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 61.25 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GULF?
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 67.10 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 2.7, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 36.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GULF?
The PEG ratio of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 2.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GULF from its 52-week high?
Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited trades at 61.25 THB, about 10% below its 52-week high of 67.75 THB and 57% above the low of 39.08 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 67.10 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 61.25 THB, calculated fair value 67.10 THB (+10%), Quality Score 39/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GULF calculated?
We run Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 67.10 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 61.25 THB. Our model-based fair value is 67.10 THB, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (50.33 THB to 134.82 THB). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The market capitalisation of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 915B THB (≈ $27.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 9.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited are 5.09 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The dividend yield of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 2.3% (payout 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The net margin of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 80.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
The operating margin of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Revenue at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited are growing −80.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF) carry?
The net debt of Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited is 320B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026