Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hikari Tsushin Inc stock $397, price $240, upside +65.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $95.75 – $286.11 · fair‑value band $165.98 – $580.52 · the $240.00 price screens below the $396.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Hikari Tsushin, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision and sale of gas and electricity in Japan and internationally. It operates through Electricity and Gas, Telecommunication, Beverage, Insurance, Finance, Solution, and Commission-based Sales segments.
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The company also offers communication line and supplementary services; life and non-life insurance products, and warranty services; and microfinance.
In addition, it manufactures, sells, and delivers natural mineral water; provides industry-specific solutions, such as customer and payment management systems; and operates as a sales agency for various telecommunication products. The company serves individual and corporate customers.
Hikari Tsushin, Inc. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Toshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) currently trades at $240.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $396.58, implying the stock looks roughly 39% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $530.82 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the $240.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $86.47, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $165.98 (bear) to $580.52 (bull), the price of $240.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hikari Tsushin Inc reported revenue of ¥735B in FY2026 versus ¥573B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥151B in FY2026, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $10.5B Large · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) $22.80 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 20.6% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 65%, HKTGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$165.98Fair Value $396.58Bull$580.52
Price $240.00 · Upside +65.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.91 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Core communication services and customer contracts deliver steady revenue and profit growth while equity-method investments expand their earnings share, yet heavier dependence on investment returns than operations limits quality assessment.
Main risk: Higher interest rates or reduced access to credit markets could increase debt servicing expenses and limit funds available for customer contract acquisitions or equity investments.
Bull case: The company could use its recurring revenue cash flows to steadily reduce leverage while pivoting agency sales toward cloud and software solutions that maintain customer relationships.
Bear case: Persistent high debt costs combined with accelerating cloud substitution could squeeze margins in core segments and slow the expansion of equity-method earnings contributions.
Hikari Tsushin grows revenue and profits steadily from its core communication services and customer contracts while equity-method investments add an expanding share of earnings. This combination funds repeated dividend hikes and buybacks but links results more closely to investment returns than to operations alone. Will the service businesses or the investment holdings shape most of its future earnings path?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.41× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.19× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.3× · Pricier than median
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Is Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $396.58 versus a price of $240.00, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HKTGF?
Our model-based fair value for Hikari Tsushin Inc is $396.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $240.00.
What is the quality score of HKTGF?
Hikari Tsushin Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $396.58 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $165.98, optimistic scenario $580.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hikari Tsushin Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $396.58, about +65% upside versus a price of $240.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $165.98, optimistic scenario $580.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Hikari Tsushin Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥760B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Hikari Tsushin Inc pay a dividend?
Hikari Tsushin Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.03% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hikari Tsushin Inc pays a dividend of $4.86 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 22.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.87 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hikari Tsushin Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKTGF use?
Our models discount Hikari Tsushin Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hikari Tsushin Inc that is +15.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hikari Tsushin Inc grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hikari Tsushin Inc (+15.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.80 %: that much free cash flow Hikari Tsushin Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hikari Tsushin Inc it is $396.58 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $240.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hikari Tsushin Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HKTGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $240.00, fair value $396.58, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKTGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($240.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($396.58). For Hikari Tsushin Inc the two are $156.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hikari Tsushin Inc worth?
The market values Hikari Tsushin Inc at about $10.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $240.00; our models calculate a fair value of $396.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKTGF?
Our models span a range for Hikari Tsushin Inc: cautious scenario $165.98, base $396.58, optimistic $580.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $240.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKTGF?
Hikari Tsushin Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $396.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hikari Tsushin Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKTGF from its 52-week high?
Hikari Tsushin Inc trades at $240.00, about 16% below its 52-week high of $286.11 and 14% above the low of $210.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $396.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hikari Tsushin Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hikari Tsushin Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $240.00, calculated fair value $396.58 (+65%), Quality Score 53/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKTGF calculated?
We run Hikari Tsushin Inc through 12 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $396.58 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hikari Tsushin Inc currently trades 39% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $240.00. Our model-based fair value is $396.58, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hikari Tsushin Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($165.98 to $580.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Hikari Tsushin Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The market capitalisation of Hikari Tsushin Inc is $10.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 2.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Earnings per share at Hikari Tsushin Inc are $22.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The dividend yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 2.0% (payout 21.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The net margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 20.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The operating margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Revenue at Hikari Tsushin Inc is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Earnings per share at Hikari Tsushin Inc are growing +30.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) carry?
The net debt of Hikari Tsushin Inc is ¥549B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026