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Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Home BancShares Inc stock $22.19, price $29.86, that is 25.7% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

HB Home BancShares Inc logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

Home BancShares Inc

HOMB · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 62/100
Highly profitable · 43.5% net margin (TTM)
2.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Positive coverage
Broad data
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.1 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.3M (6M)
Fair value $22.19 · Overvalued
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.39 $17.71 Fair Value $22.19 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.71 – $31.39 · fair‑value band $19.11 – $29.77 · the $29.86 price screens above the $22.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Home BancShares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Centennial Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and related financial services to businesses, real estate developers and investors, individuals, and municipalities in the United States.

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The company offers deposit services, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.

It also provides loans comprising non-farm/non-residential real estate, construction/land development, residential mortgage, consumer, agricultural, and commercial and industrial loans.

In addition, the company offers other banking services, such as internet and mobile banking, voice response information, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, and automatic account transfer services, as well as safe deposit boxes and the United States savings bonds.

Further, it provides trust, wealth management, and custodial services, as well as trustee services, escrow, and paying agent services.

Additionally, the company writes policies for commercial and personal lines of business, including insurance for property, casualty, life, health, and employee benefits. It operates its branches in Arkansas, Florida, Texas, South Alabama, and New York City.

Home BancShares, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Conway, Arkansas.

Stock analysis

Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) currently trades at $29.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.19, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.48 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $29.86 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.60, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $19.11 (bear) to $29.77 (bull), the price of $29.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Home BancShares Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $752M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $475M in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.9B Mid · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 5.29 · EPS (TTM) $2.44 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 43.5% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −26%, HOMB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $19.11 Fair Value $22.19 Bull $29.77
Price $29.86 · Downside -25.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.35 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $19.40 $22.19 $29.77 76
DDM Multi-Stage $7.27 $12.72 $15.81 67
Gordon GGM $7.27 $15.05 $23.78 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.27 $15.05 $23.78 66
DDM Multi-Stage $7.27 $12.72 $15.81 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.17 $30.90 $38.62 63
P/B Multiple $15.04 $20.06 $25.07 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.16 $9.60 $14.33 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $19.40 $22.19 $29.77 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 80
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 89
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 86
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 48
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 61
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 86
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.3M and none bought.

  • SaleJohn W Allison IIDirector3× since Feb 23, 2026: 20,500 shares, avg. $29.24$599,493Oct 29, 2026
  • SaleJim RankinDirector15,000 shares at $30.86$462,900Aug 11, 2026
  • SaleJohn Stephen TiptonCentennial Bank CEO12,000 shares at $31.59$379,080Aug 4, 2026
  • SaleJennifer C. FloydChief Accounting Officer3,000 shares at $27.12$81,360Apr 21, 2026
  • BuyJohn W AllisonChairman & CEO, Director100,000 shares at $26.96$2.7MApr 17, 2026
  • SaleJames G HinkleDirector30,000 shares at $30.27$908,100Feb 11, 2026
  • SaleDonna TownsellDirector of Investor Relations, Director5,563 shares at $28.38$157,878Jan 28, 2026

Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.9% vs 9.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 44%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

HOMB screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Limited evidence supports a durable moat for this regional bank, with its main strength in potential payoff from the Mountain Commerce acquisition and its main weakness in pressures on margins and efficiency amid intense competition.
Main risk: Failure of the Mountain Commerce acquisition integration to offset pressures could reveal limits in the regional banking model and hit net interest margins together with efficiency.
Home BancShares heads into its Q3 report with analysts expecting a modest rise in earnings and revenue. Yet the same forecasts show a slightly narrower net interest margin and a higher efficiency ratio than last year. Will the payoff from integrating the recent Mountain Commerce acquisition more than offset these pressures, or will they reveal limits in the regional banking model?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −25.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.1% · Above median
Return on assets 2.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 43.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 57.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 5.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 5.29× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 15.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.01× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)29 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)58 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs HOMB
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs HOMB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs HOMB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs HOMB
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs HOMB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs HOMB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs HOMB
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs HOMB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs HOMB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs HOMB

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Home BancShares Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOMB

Frequently asked questions

Is Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.19 versus a price of $29.86, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HOMB?
Our model-based fair value for Home BancShares Inc is $22.19 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.86.
What is the quality score of HOMB?
Home BancShares Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.19 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.11, optimistic scenario $29.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Home BancShares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.19, about 26% lower versus a price of $29.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.11, optimistic scenario $29.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Home BancShares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Home BancShares Inc pay a dividend?
Home BancShares Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Home BancShares Inc pays a dividend of $0.86 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 35.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Home BancShares Inc it is $22.19 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $29.86. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Home BancShares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, HOMB trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.86, fair value $22.19, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOMB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.19). For Home BancShares Inc the two are $7.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Home BancShares Inc worth?
The market values Home BancShares Inc at about $5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $29.86; our models calculate a fair value of $22.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOMB?
Our models span a range for Home BancShares Inc: cautious scenario $19.11, base $22.19, optimistic $29.77 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $29.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOMB?
Home BancShares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 13.6. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of HOMB?
The PEG ratio of Home BancShares Inc is 3.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Home BancShares Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOMB from its 52-week high?
Home BancShares Inc trades at $29.86, about 5% below its 52-week high of $31.39 and 17% above the low of $25.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Home BancShares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Home BancShares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $29.86, calculated fair value $22.19 (−26%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOMB calculated?
We run Home BancShares Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $22.19 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Home BancShares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $29.86. Our model-based fair value is $22.19, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Home BancShares Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) come from?
Earnings per share at Home BancShares Inc grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Home BancShares Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The market capitalisation of Home BancShares Inc is $5.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Home BancShares Inc is 5.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Earnings per share at Home BancShares Inc are $2.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The dividend yield of Home BancShares Inc is 2.9% (payout 35.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The net margin of Home BancShares Inc is 43.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Home BancShares Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Home BancShares Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
The operating margin of Home BancShares Inc is 57.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Revenue at Home BancShares Inc is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Home BancShares Inc (HOMB)?
Earnings per share at Home BancShares Inc are growing +3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) generate?
The free cash flow of Home BancShares Inc is $377M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Home BancShares Inc (HOMB) carry?
The net debt of Home BancShares Inc is $268M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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