Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Headwater Exploration Inc stock C$12.62, price C$11.47, upside +10.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick.
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The company was formerly known as Corridor Resources Inc. and changed its name to Headwater Exploration Inc. in March 2020. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) currently trades at C$11.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$12.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$8.10 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$11.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.11, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$8.31 (bear) to C$16.69 (bull), the price of C$11.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
Headwater Exploration Inc reported revenue of C$514M in FY2025 versus C$191M in FY2021, a compound +28.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$153M in FY2025, compounding +35.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.7B (≈ $1.9B) Small · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 4.64 · EPS (TTM) C$0.8000 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 31.5% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, HWX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$8.31Fair Value C$12.62BullC$16.69
Price C$11.47 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.3077 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2019: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2019.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+122.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+95.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+72.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 40%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (58 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong margins and cash conversion point to solid operational efficiency, yet structurally weak pricing power leaves no durable moat for this commodity producer.
Main risk: As an undifferentiated E&P producer, sustained weak oil prices would directly erode margins and cash conversion without any pricing power to cushion the impact.
Headwater is set to combine with Tamarack Valley in an all-stock deal that creates a larger North American oil producer while spinning out a separate exploration company focused on growth. The move consolidates operations in the Clearwater play but splits the production scale from the higher-risk drilling upside. Will the producer side deliver steadier returns through efficiency gains or will the explorer capture more value from new discoveries?
Compare Headwater Exploration Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)58.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.3× · Pricier than median
P/B3.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.64× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.5× · Pricier than median
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Is Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$12.62 versus a price of C$11.47, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HWX?
Our model-based fair value for Headwater Exploration Inc is C$12.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$11.47.
What is the quality score of HWX?
Headwater Exploration Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$12.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$8.31, optimistic scenario C$16.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Headwater Exploration Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$12.62, about +10% upside versus a price of C$11.47 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$8.31, optimistic scenario C$16.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Headwater Exploration Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$592M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Headwater Exploration Inc pay a dividend?
Headwater Exploration Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Headwater Exploration Inc pays a dividend of C$0.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 55.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.07 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Headwater Exploration Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +122.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HWX use?
Our models discount Headwater Exploration Inc at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Headwater Exploration Inc that is +16.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Headwater Exploration Inc grew +122.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Headwater Exploration Inc (+16.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.08 %: that much free cash flow Headwater Exploration Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Headwater Exploration Inc it is C$12.62 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$11.47. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Headwater Exploration Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HWX trades below its calculated fair value: price C$11.47, fair value C$12.62, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$11.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$12.62). For Headwater Exploration Inc the two are C$1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Headwater Exploration Inc worth?
The market values Headwater Exploration Inc at about C$2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$11.47; our models calculate a fair value of C$12.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWX?
Our models span a range for Headwater Exploration Inc: cautious scenario C$8.31, base C$12.62, optimistic C$16.69 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$11.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HWX?
Headwater Exploration Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$12.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.1. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Headwater Exploration Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 24.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWX from its 52-week high?
Headwater Exploration Inc trades at C$11.47, about 24% below its 52-week high of C$15.17 and 60% above the low of C$7.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$12.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Headwater Exploration Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Headwater Exploration Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$11.47, calculated fair value C$12.62 (+10%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWX calculated?
We run Headwater Exploration Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$12.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Headwater Exploration Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$11.47. Our model-based fair value is C$12.62, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Headwater Exploration Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (C$8.31 to C$16.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Headwater Exploration Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The market capitalisation of Headwater Exploration Inc is C$2.7B (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Headwater Exploration Inc is 4.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Earnings per share at Headwater Exploration Inc are C$0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The dividend yield of Headwater Exploration Inc is 3.8% (payout 55.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The net margin of Headwater Exploration Inc is 31.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Headwater Exploration Inc is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Headwater Exploration Inc is 22.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
The operating margin of Headwater Exploration Inc is 58.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Revenue at Headwater Exploration Inc is growing +58.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
Earnings per share at Headwater Exploration Inc are growing +125% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) hold?
Headwater Exploration Inc holds more cash than debt, C$88.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026