Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$2.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$6.72 to C$13.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.84 – C$13.47 · fair‑value band C$6.72 – C$13.27 · the C$12.81 price screens above the C$8.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) currently trades at C$12.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$8.83, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Headwater Exploration Inc generated revenue of C$523M at a net margin of 26.6%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$88.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$6.72 (bear case) to C$13.27 (bull case); at C$12.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -31%, HWX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$26.43) versus Asset-Based (C$2.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as Corridor Resources Inc. and changed its name to Headwater Exploration Inc.
Full company description
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as Corridor Resources Inc. and changed its name to Headwater Exploration Inc. in March 2020. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Headwater Exploration Inc reported revenue of C$514M in FY2025 versus C$191M in FY2021, a compound +28.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$153M in FY2025, compounding +35.2%/yr from FY2021.
HWX screens 31% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
Compare Headwater Exploration Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HWX?
What is the quality score of HWX?
What is the revenue of Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX)?
What is the net profit margin of HWX?
Does Headwater Exploration Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Headwater Exploration Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.