Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd stock $25.14, price $15.71, upside +60.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.23 – $34.34 · fair‑value band $19.50 – $30.63 · the $15.71 price screens below the $25.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of automotive lighting devices, aircraft parts, railway vehicle parts, electrical equipment, and other related products in Japan.
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The company offers LED and halogen headlamps; fog, led rear combination, high-mounted stop, and side turn signal lamps; interior and exterior lights; capution warning panels, liquid crystal displays, as well as electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical equipment; and ship lights and destination indicator products.
It also provides sensor lighting module; dual view machine-vision; and sensor with cleaning systems; BladeScan, an ADB is a headlamp system; and transportation and insurance services. Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) currently trades at $15.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.14, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.23 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the $15.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.61, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.50 (bear) to $30.63 (bull), the price of $15.71 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.0T in FY2026 versus ¥761B in FY2022, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥17.5B in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B Mid · P/E ratio 30.2 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 60%, KOTMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.50Fair Value $25.14Bull$30.63
Price $15.71 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1015 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$19.45$25.74$34.9581
Growth DCF$19.77$25.50$33.4880
Owner Earnings$11.79$14.36$18.1178
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$19.45$25.74$34.9581
Owner Earnings$11.79$14.36$18.1178
5Y Revenue Exit$18.53$25.01$33.0674
5Y EBITDA Exit$24.16$35.21$47.8076
5Y P/E Exit$15.17$18.90$22.6272
10Y Revenue Exit$18.39$24.30$31.8068
10Y EBITDA Exit$22.29$31.27$42.7369
10Y P/E Exit$16.63$20.12$24.0565
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.93$7.74$10.1165
PEG = 1.0$1.49$2.13$2.7657
EPV$15.41$16.88$18.1874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.75$7.72$12.3966
DDM Multi-Stage$3.75$5.80$8.0066
Multiples
P/E Multiple$7.10$9.47$11.8463
P/S Multiple$5.49$7.32$9.1558
P/B Multiple$45.17$60.23$75.2855
EV/EBIT$24.55$30.58$36.6066
EV/EBITDA$29.47$37.13$44.7967
EV/Revenue$18.66$23.88$29.1054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.36$6.61$8.2654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$19.77$25.50$33.4880
Rev-Margin DCF$18.53$25.10$32.3574
Economic Profit
Residual Income$11.00$10.86$11.0676
ROIC Compounder$15.45$17.58$20.1772
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$5.54$7.92$10.3067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.0% vs −7.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.7% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited moat from persistently low margins and ROE in the competitive auto parts sector is the main weakness, while recent sales growth and ongoing share buybacks point to potential durable cash generation in lighting and lidar.
Main risk: Industry competition and typical commoditization in auto parts likely cap pricing ability and would hit margins as well as cash generation in the core lighting and lidar operations.
Koito keeps buying back its shares, adding another 528,400 in September under the program running through May 2027. First-quarter sales rose 9.6 percent and net income jumped 45 percent on new orders and yen weakness. Our models see it as overvalued, but does the buyback show management believes the core lighting and lidar business has more durable cash generation than the headline numbers suggest, or is it simply returning capital ahead of cyclical auto demand?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.69× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.8× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KOTMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.14 versus a price of $15.71, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KOTMY?
Our model-based fair value for Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is $25.14 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.71.
What is the quality score of KOTMY?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.14 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.50, optimistic scenario $30.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.14, about +60% upside versus a price of $15.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.50, optimistic scenario $30.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥969B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd pays a dividend of $0.354 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. The payout ratio is 82.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.34 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KOTMY use?
Our models discount Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd that is -8.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (-8.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.37 %: that much free cash flow Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd it is $25.14 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $15.71. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, KOTMY trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.71, fair value $25.14, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KOTMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.14). For Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd the two are $9.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $15.71; our models calculate a fair value of $25.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KOTMY?
Our models span a range for Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd: cautious scenario $19.50, base $25.14, optimistic $30.63 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $15.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KOTMY?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of KOTMY?
The PEG ratio of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 1.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KOTMY from its 52-week high?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd trades at $15.71, about 12% below its 52-week high of $17.80 and 15% above the low of $13.67 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $15.71, calculated fair value $25.14 (+60%), Quality Score 68/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KOTMY calculated?
We run Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.71. Our model-based fair value is $25.14, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd grew −2.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The market capitalisation of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Earnings per share at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The dividend yield of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 2.3% (payout 68.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The net margin of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 1.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
The operating margin of Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Revenue at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY)?
Earnings per share at Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd are growing +56.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd (KOTMY) hold?
Koito Manufacturing Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥264B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 3, 2026