Koito Manufacturing Co (KOTMY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.5B

A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• Our model range runs from $10.44 (bear) to $17.40 (bull), base $13.92. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 68/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.23 – $34.34 · fair‑value band $10.44 – $17.40 · the $16.98 price screens above the $13.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Koito Manufacturing Co (KOTMY) currently trades at $16.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.92, implying the stock looks roughly 18.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Koito Manufacturing Co generated revenue of $948B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $264B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $10.44 (bear case) to $17.40 (bull case); at $16.98, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -18%, KOTMY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($23.22) versus Earnings-Based ($7.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of automotive lighting devices, aircraft parts, railway vehicle parts, electrical equipment, and other related products in Japan.

Full company description

Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of automotive lighting devices, aircraft parts, railway vehicle parts, electrical equipment, and other related products in Japan. The company offers LED and halogen headlamps; fog, led rear combination, high-mounted stop, and side turn signal lamps; interior and exterior lights; capution warning panels, liquid crystal displays, as well as electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical equipment; and ship lights and destination indicator products. It also provides sensor lighting module; dual view machine-vision; and sensor with cleaning systems; BladeScan, an ADB is a headlamp system; and transportation and insurance services. Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Koito Manufacturing Co reported revenue of $1.0T in FY2026 versus $761B in FY2022, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $17.5B in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.

KOTMY screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.