Kroger Company (KR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kroger Company stock $54.76, price $69.43, that is 21.1% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.62 – $74.69 · fair‑value band $39.47 – $71.17 · the $69.43 price screens above the $54.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses.
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Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and its multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys.
The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and its price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items.
It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through its fuel centers. The company sells its products through its stores, fuel centers, and online platforms. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Kroger Company (KR) currently trades at $69.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.76, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $52.43 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $69.43 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.64, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $39.47 (bear) to $71.17 (bull), the price of $69.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kroger Company reported revenue of $148B in FY2026 versus $138B in FY2022, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2026, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $45.5B Large · P/E ratio 38.6 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) $1.80 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −21%, KR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$39.47Fair Value $54.76Bull$71.17
Price $69.43 · Downside -21.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2752 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$61.42$106.39$179.2478
Growth DCF$64.01$105.62$169.8677
Residual Income$11.73$14.23$20.3775
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$61.42$106.39$179.2478
Owner Earnings$6.05$20.03$42.6870
5Y Revenue Exit$26.10$43.86$65.3072
5Y EBITDA Exit$64.35$113.41$169.1474
5Y P/E Exit$23.67$39.45$55.0770
10Y Revenue Exit$36.59$55.58$78.7067
10Y EBITDA Exit$62.66$105.19$159.2467
10Y P/E Exit$35.92$52.43$70.7664
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$11.70$31.19$40.7865
Lynch FV$6.05$8.64$11.2361
PEG = 1.0$6.05$8.64$11.2357
EPV$11.15$16.74$21.7873
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$15.02$34.38$61.6665
DDM Multi-Stage$15.02$24.16$34.8566
Multiples
P/E Multiple$27.09$36.13$45.1663
P/S Multiple$21.93$29.25$36.5658
P/B Multiple$17.63$23.51$29.3855
EV/EBIT$4.66$18.26$31.8659
EV/EBITDA$59.77$91.75$123.7266
EV/Revenuen/a$5.46$17.9450
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.14$2.86$4.2754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$64.01$105.62$169.8677
Rev-Margin DCF$26.10$44.94$66.1772
Economic Profit
Residual Income$11.73$14.23$20.3775
ROIC Compounder$11.42$19.93$30.9569
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$21.29$30.42$39.5467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.2M and none bought.
SaleMary Ellen AdcockExecutive Vice President72,901 shares at $60.71$4.4MSep 18, 2026
SaleYael CossetExecutive Vice President30,000 shares at $58.80$1.8MJul 14, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.7% vs −2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Kroger draws strength from new leadership focused on operations and digital channels yet remains limited by a thin moat and persistently low net margins in competitive grocery retail.
Main risk: Walmart, Amazon and Aldi could intensify price competition and expand online grocery offerings, squeezing Kroger's margins and customer base in physical and digital channels.
Bull case: Kroger could leverage its new leadership and digital initiatives to match rivals on price and convenience while strengthening private labels and loyalty programs.
Bear case: If rivals continue gaining share with lower prices and seamless online options, Kroger could see persistent sales erosion and further margin compression in a commoditizing market.
Kroger is bringing in a wave of Walmart veterans to lead store operations, e-commerce and data initiatives under its new CEO. At the same time identical sales growth has slowed sharply and full-year guidance was trimmed, even as profit targets stay intact. Will tighter execution on shelves and digital channels restore momentum, or will disciplined cost control be the main driver going forward?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kroger Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KR
Frequently asked questions
Is Kroger Company (KR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $54.76 versus a price of $69.43, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KR?
Our model-based fair value for Kroger Company is $54.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.43.
What is the quality score of KR?
Kroger Company has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kroger Company (KR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $54.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.47, optimistic scenario $71.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kroger Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $54.76, about 21% lower versus a price of $69.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.47, optimistic scenario $71.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kroger Company (KR)?
Kroger Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $149B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Kroger Company pay a dividend?
Kroger Company currently shows a dividend yield of 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kroger Company (KR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kroger Company would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KR use?
Our models discount Kroger Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kroger Company that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kroger Company (KR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kroger Company grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kroger Company (KR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kroger Company (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kroger Company (KR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.37 %: that much free cash flow Kroger Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kroger Company (KR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kroger Company it is $54.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $69.43. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kroger Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KR trades above its calculated fair value: price $69.43, fair value $54.76, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($54.76). For Kroger Company the two are $14.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kroger Company worth?
The market values Kroger Company at about $45.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $69.43; our models calculate a fair value of $54.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KR?
Our models span a range for Kroger Company: cautious scenario $39.47, base $54.76, optimistic $71.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $69.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KR?
Kroger Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $54.76 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 14.3 (reported for FY2026: 41.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 14.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 7.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KR?
The PEG ratio of Kroger Company is 0.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kroger Company (KR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kroger Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.4%, debt of 2.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KR from its 52-week high?
Kroger Company trades at $69.43, about 7% below its 52-week high of $74.69 and 26% above the low of $55.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $54.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kroger Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, George Weston Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kroger Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $69.43, calculated fair value $54.76 (−21%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KR calculated?
We run Kroger Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $54.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Kroger Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kroger Company (KR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $69.43. Our model-based fair value is $54.76, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kroger Company right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($39.47 to $71.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kroger Company (KR) come from?
Earnings per share at Kroger Company grew +4.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kroger Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Kroger Company (KR)?
The market capitalisation of Kroger Company is $45.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kroger Company (KR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kroger Company is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kroger Company (KR)?
Earnings per share at Kroger Company are $1.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kroger Company (KR)?
The dividend yield of Kroger Company is 2.1% (payout 27.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 80.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kroger Company (KR)?
The net margin of Kroger Company is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kroger Company (KR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kroger Company is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kroger Company (KR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kroger Company is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kroger Company (KR)?
The operating margin of Kroger Company is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kroger Company (KR)?
Revenue at Kroger Company is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kroger Company (KR)?
Earnings per share at Kroger Company are growing +15.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kroger Company (KR) carry?
The net debt of Kroger Company is $21.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026