Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lumentum Holdings Inc stock $85.88, price $596, that is 85.6% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 86% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +137%, profit +70%.
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +12.0 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $126.2M (6M)
Fair value $85.88 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -175.8% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers(4/13)
Narrow moat30/100 · thin data
Thin data
Extreme value
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Merger agreement with Marvell sparks immediate sharp share decline🚩All-stock merger with Marvell announced, not closing until 2028🚩Dependence on few hyperscale customers🚩Coherent's larger indium phosphide wafers
Watch Lumentum Holdings Inc for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $36.07 – $1,133 · fair‑value band $69.49 – $123.01 · the $596.16 price screens above the $85.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
Follow Lumentum Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lumentum Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech.
Show moreShow less
The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are building cloud data centers and network infrastructures.
Its Industrial Tech segment provides short-pulse solid-state lasers, kilowatt-class fiber lasers, diode lasers, and gas lasers that serves the semiconductor device, solar cell, display, and electric vehicle and battery manufacturing markets.
The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) currently trades at $596.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.88, 86% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $143.16 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $596.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.54, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $69.49 (bear) to $123.01 (bull), the price of $596.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lumentum Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2026 versus $1.7B in FY2022, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.9B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $62.0B Large · P/E ex one-offs 68.8 · P/S ratio 16.6 · EPS (TTM) $−89.62 · Return on equity −246% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 28.0% · Revenue (TTM) $3.7B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 163% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −86%, LITE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($16.54 to $182.90). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$69.49Fair Value $85.88Bull$123.01
Price $596.16 · Downside -85.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $126.2M and none bought.
SaleWajid AliEVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER3× since Feb 27, 2026: 32,331 shares, avg. $982.62$31.8MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleYuen WupenPRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS15× since Nov 17, 2025: 23,638 shares, avg. $790.92$18.7MSep 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael E. HurlstonPresident and CEO, Director548 shares at $958.66$525,346Aug 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJae KimSVP, GENERAL COUNSEL6× since Nov 17, 2025: 20,162 shares, avg. $823.64$16.6MAug 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleVincent RetortOfficer6× since Feb 12, 2026: 95,979 shares, avg. $723.63$69.5MAug 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleIsaac Hosojiro HarrisDirector2× since May 29, 2026: 5,416 shares, avg. $896.62$4.9MJun 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleIan SmallDirector2× since May 8, 2026: 8,454 shares, avg. $885.92$7.5MMay 21, 2026
SalePamela FletcherDirector3× since Nov 17, 2025: 7,155 shares, avg. $579.66$4.1MMay 15, 2026
SaleBrian LillieDirector2× since May 11, 2026: 12,000 shares, avg. $981.73$11.8MMay 11, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePenny HerscherDirector2× since Feb 6, 2026: 8,849 shares, avg. $563.42$5.0MFeb 12, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 32 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+83.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.2% (2020) → −10.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+52.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2027 (+124.7%) comes with 21% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +85.0%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.1% a year for the price and +49.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Explosive revenue growth from AI data center demand for lasers and optical switches contrasts with weak profitability metrics and a limited moat.
Main risk: A reduction in spending or loss of one or two hyperscale customers that together represent over 40 percent of revenue could sharply cut demand for its optical components.
Bull case: By securing long-term capacity commitments from NVIDIA and other hyperscalers the company could lock in demand and expand its manufacturing footprint to meet sustained AI-driven needs.
Bear case: If a major customer cuts orders or Coherent captures share with lower-cost production from larger wafers revenue and margins could fall once additional industry capacity comes online after 2028.
Lumentum reported explosive revenue growth in its latest quarter, driven by demand for its lasers and optical switches in AI data centers. Yet the all-stock merger agreement with Marvell, announced days later and not expected to close until 2028, sparked an immediate sharp decline in its shares. Our models view the stock as overvalued. Will the combination unlock greater scale in optical AI connectivity or expose both companies to prolonged regulatory and integration challenges?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 299 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−94.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−175.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)136.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $85.88 versus a price of $596.16, about 86% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LITE?
Our model-based fair value for Lumentum Holdings Inc is $85.88 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $596.16.
What is the quality score of LITE?
Lumentum Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $85.88 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $69.49, optimistic scenario $123.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lumentum Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $85.88, about 86% lower versus a price of $596.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $69.49, optimistic scenario $123.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Lumentum Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lumentum Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +51.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.0 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LITE use?
Our models discount Lumentum Holdings Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lumentum Holdings Inc that is +51.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lumentum Holdings Inc grew +12.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +51.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lumentum Holdings Inc (+51.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.67 %: that much free cash flow Lumentum Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lumentum Holdings Inc it is $85.88 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $596.16. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, LITE trades above its calculated fair value: price $596.16, fair value $85.88, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LITE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($596.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($85.88). For Lumentum Holdings Inc the two are $510.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lumentum Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Lumentum Holdings Inc at about $62.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $596.16; our models calculate a fair value of $85.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LITE?
Our models span a range for Lumentum Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $69.49, base $85.88, optimistic $123.01 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $596.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LITE?
The PEG ratio of Lumentum Holdings Inc is 0.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lumentum Holdings Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −245.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LITE from its 52-week high?
Lumentum Holdings Inc trades at $596.16, about 47% below its 52-week high of $1,133 and 163% above the low of $226.86 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $85.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lumentum Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $596.16, calculated fair value $85.88 (−86%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LITE calculated?
We run Lumentum Holdings Inc through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $85.88 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Lumentum Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $596.16. Our model-based fair value is $85.88, about 86% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lumentum Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($123.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Lumentum Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The market capitalisation of Lumentum Holdings Inc is $62.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Lumentum Holdings Inc is 68.8 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 38.6 (6 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lumentum Holdings Inc is 16.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Earnings per share at Lumentum Holdings Inc are $−89.62. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lumentum Holdings Inc is −246% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lumentum Holdings Inc is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
The operating margin of Lumentum Holdings Inc is 28.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Revenue at Lumentum Holdings Inc is growing +137% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)?
Earnings per share at Lumentum Holdings Inc are growing +69.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) hold?
Lumentum Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $372M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Lumentum Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Lumentum Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 9, 2026