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Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 355B CNY (≈ $52.9B) · ISIN CNE1000036B2

What is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co really worth?

YO Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co 601869 · SHG
Price¥400.03
Fair Value¥201.38
Upside−49.7%
Quality58/100

A solid business, but trading 99% above our fair value of ¥201.38.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr)
Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100

For context

·0.07% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range ¥151.03 – ¥251.72

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from ¥22.21 to ¥201.38 (+806.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +47.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥251.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥580.00 ¥21.31 Fair Value ¥201.38 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥21.31 – ¥580.00 · fair‑value band ¥151.03 – ¥251.72 · the ¥400.03 price screens above the ¥201.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) currently trades at ¥400.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥201.38, implying the stock looks roughly 98.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥45.67 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥400.03 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥23.18, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co generated revenue of 15.1B CNY at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 27.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at 257M CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥151.03 (bear case) to ¥251.72 (bull case); at ¥400.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −50%, 601869 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.5269 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (¥4.59 to ¥77.45). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥43.25 ¥77.45 ¥138.58 76
Residual Income ¥14.48 ¥14.99 ¥15.39 75
Owner Earnings ¥5.75 ¥9.33 ¥15.73 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥43.25 ¥77.45 ¥138.58 76
Owner Earnings ¥5.75 ¥9.33 ¥15.73 74
5Y Revenue Exit ¥25.06 ¥38.38 ¥55.65 71
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥38.81 ¥66.33 ¥100.32 73
5Y P/E Exit ¥28.65 ¥45.67 ¥64.56 69
10Y Revenue Exit ¥30.14 ¥44.81 ¥65.75 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥39.96 ¥65.59 ¥103.50 66
10Y P/E Exit ¥33.11 ¥50.23 ¥73.28 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥7.28 ¥32.08 ¥43.91 61
Lynch FV ¥8.30 ¥11.86 ¥15.41 58
PEG = 1.0 ¥8.30 ¥11.86 ¥15.41 55
EPV ¥15.16 ¥17.59 ¥19.75 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.57 ¥5.61 ¥9.44 63
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.57 ¥4.59 ¥5.85 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥22.47 ¥29.96 ¥37.45 61
P/S Multiple ¥13.64 ¥18.19 ¥22.74 56
P/B Multiple ¥13.64 ¥18.19 ¥22.74 53
EV/EBIT ¥32.41 ¥42.76 ¥53.10 65
EV/EBITDA ¥39.88 ¥52.71 ¥65.55 66
EV/Revenue ¥17.07 ¥23.79 ¥30.52 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥9.08 ¥12.16 ¥18.15 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥43.24 ¥75.64 ¥133.31 74
Rev-Margin DCF ¥25.06 ¥38.49 ¥55.66 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥14.48 ¥14.99 ¥15.39 75
ROIC Compounder ¥15.16 ¥17.59 ¥22.15 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥16.22 ¥23.18 ¥30.13 66

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥45.67) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.59). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 416.7 as of Jun 7, 2026
P/S ratio 23.8 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥1.06 price ÷ EPS = P/E 416.7
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 27.8%
Net margin 5.7% FY2025
Return on equity 7.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 23.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 15.1B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.7% 3y avg +1.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +200%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 2.4B CNY FY2025
Net debt 257M CNY FY2025 · ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally.

Full company description

Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally. Itoffers cutting edge products; optical fiber preforms, coating, and silicon tetrachloride; communication optical fire; cable products; specialty fibers, optical fiber components and modules, optical assemblies and modules, and optical fiber sensing system; submarine fiber-optic cable; optical transceiver; and coaxial cable, including RF coaxial and leaky coaxial cable, as well as accessories for RF and leaky coaxial cable. The company also provides data center, copper structured, and fiber optic structured cabling solutions. The company serves telecom, data communication, transportation, industrial laser, power grid, submarine communication, consumer, and materials markets. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co reported revenue of 14.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 814M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
14.3B CNY
Latest YoY
+16.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.8% (2.7 + 0.1)
Revenue +10.6%/yr
FY21 9.5B CNY
FY22 13.8B CNY
FY23 13.4B CNY
FY24 12.2B CNY
FY25 14.3B CNY
Net income +3.5%/yr
FY21 709M CNY
FY22 1.2B CNY
FY23 1.3B CNY
FY24 676M CNY
FY25 814M CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 %

of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution −2.5 %

EBIT margin −3.1 %
Tax rate +0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

601869 screens 99% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601869

Peer Group

Communication Equipment · 305 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −50% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.34× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 416.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 25.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 23.56× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 40
PAST31 · sector 15
HEALTH83 · sector 98
DIVIDEND1 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO $112.15 $61.53 −45%
Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 ¥866.12 ¥171.09 −80%
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 ¥61.83 ¥28.65 −54%
Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 ¥429.90 ¥176.99 −59%
Nokia Oyj NOK $10.21 $3.78 −63%
Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI $487.28 $236.33 −52%
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 ¥276.25 ¥43.67 −84%
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC $10.06 $19.89 +98%
Accton Technology Corporation 2345 2,270 TWD 1,135 TWD −50%
Ubiquiti Inc UI $577.76 $252.79 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥201.38 versus a price of ¥400.03, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601869?
Our model-based fair value for Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is ¥201.38 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥400.03.
What is the quality score of 601869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601869?
The net profit margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co pay a dividend?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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