Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co stock ¥59.92, price ¥323, upside -81.4%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥21.31 – ¥580.00 · fair‑value band ¥44.94 – ¥74.90 · the ¥322.75 price screens above the ¥59.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally.
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Itoffers cutting edge products; optical fiber preforms, coating, and silicon tetrachloride; communication optical fire; cable products; specialty fibers, optical fiber components and modules, optical assemblies and modules, and optical fiber sensing system; submarine fiber-optic cable; optical transceiver; and coaxial cable, including RF coaxial and leaky coaxial cable, as well as accessories for RF and leaky coaxial cable.
The company also provides data center, copper structured, and fiber optic structured cabling solutions. The company serves telecom, data communication, transportation, industrial laser, power grid, submarine communication, consumer, and materials markets.
The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.
Stock analysis
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) currently trades at ¥322.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥59.92, 81.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥46.36 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥322.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥9.77, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥44.94 (bear) to ¥74.90 (bull), the price of ¥322.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co reported revenue of 14.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 814M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 338B CNY (≈ $50.7B) Large · P/E ratio 97.2 · P/S ratio 19.1 · EPS (TTM) ¥4.23 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 343% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −81%, 601869 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥4.32 to ¥87.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥44.94Fair Value ¥59.92Bull¥74.90
Price ¥322.75 · Upside -81.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥2.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 1.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+44.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.9% a year for the price and +42.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)75.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)97.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B24.48× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)19.12× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow141.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA61.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)84· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601869
Frequently asked questions
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥59.92 versus a price of ¥322.75, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601869?
Our model-based fair value for Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is ¥59.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥322.75.
What is the quality score of 601869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥59.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥44.94, optimistic scenario ¥74.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥59.92, about −81% upside versus a price of ¥322.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥44.94, optimistic scenario ¥74.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co pay a dividend?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co would have to grow free cash flow by +39.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601869 use?
Our models discount Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co that is +39.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +39.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (+39.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.97 %: that much free cash flow Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co it is ¥59.92 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ¥322.75. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 601869 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥322.75, fair value ¥59.92, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥322.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥59.92). For Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co the two are ¥262.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co worth?
The market values Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co at about 338B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥322.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥59.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601869?
Our models span a range for Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co: cautious scenario ¥44.94, base ¥59.92, optimistic ¥74.90 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ¥322.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥59.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 24.5, P/S 19.1, EV/EBITDA 61.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601869 from its 52-week high?
Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co trades at ¥322.75, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥580.00 and 343% above the low of ¥72.84 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥59.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ¥322.75, calculated fair value ¥59.92 (−81%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601869 calculated?
We run Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥59.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥322.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥59.92, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥74.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) come from?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co grew +2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 338B CNY (≈ $50.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 19.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co are ¥4.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 0.4% (payout 32.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 19.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
The operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is growing +75.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co (601869) carry?
The net debt of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Ltd Co is 257M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026