Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Grand Canyon Education Inc stock $155, price $118, upside +31.4%, quality 86 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $70.22 – $220.55 · fair‑value band $109.69 – $194.13 · the $117.69 price screens below the $154.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States.
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The company provides technology services, including learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; and academic services, such as program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites.
It also offers counseling services and support, which includes admission services, financial aid, counseling services, and field experience counseling; marketing and communication services, including lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, media planning and strategy, video, business intelligence, analytics, and data science, and market research and insights; and back-office services, such as finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.
In addition, it provides education services to 20 university partners. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was formerly known as Significant Education, Inc. and changed its name to Grand Canyon Education, Inc. in August 2005. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) currently trades at $117.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $154.63, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $178.20 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $117.69 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $88.39, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $109.69 (bear) to $194.13 (bull), the price of $117.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grand Canyon Education Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $897M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $216M in FY2025, compounding −4.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B Mid · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 3.44 · EPS (TTM) $8.26 · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 31.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 22.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at 31%, LOPE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$109.69Fair Value $154.63Bull$194.13
Price $117.69 · Upside +31.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleChevy HumphreyDirector600 shares at $166.15$99,690Nov 11, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.2% vs 10.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.9% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong margins and reliable cash flows from university services support a moderate moat, yet thin public signals and exposure to regulatory scrutiny limit durability assessment.
Main risk: Regulatory scrutiny and enrollment shifts at partner institutions pose the biggest risk to the education services model and its cash flow stability.
Grand Canyon Education recently arranged a new five-year revolving credit facility of up to 100 million dollars, intended mainly to support its share repurchase program. This move highlights the reliable cash flows from its university services agreements. At the same time, the education services model remains exposed to regulatory scrutiny and shifts in enrollment at partner institutions. Will the facility primarily enable faster capital returns or provide a cushion if those cash flows face pressure?
Compare Grand Canyon Education Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+31.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.44× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.5× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grand Canyon Education Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LOPE
Frequently asked questions
Is Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $154.63 versus a price of $117.69, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LOPE?
Our model-based fair value for Grand Canyon Education Inc is $154.63 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $117.69.
What is the quality score of LOPE?
Grand Canyon Education Inc has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $154.63 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $109.69, optimistic scenario $194.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grand Canyon Education Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $154.63, about +31% upside versus a price of $117.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $109.69, optimistic scenario $194.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Grand Canyon Education Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grand Canyon Education Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LOPE use?
Our models discount Grand Canyon Education Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grand Canyon Education Inc that is -1.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grand Canyon Education Inc grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grand Canyon Education Inc (-1.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.73 %: that much free cash flow Grand Canyon Education Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grand Canyon Education Inc it is $154.63 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $117.69. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Grand Canyon Education Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, LOPE trades below its calculated fair value: price $117.69, fair value $154.63, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($117.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($154.63). For Grand Canyon Education Inc the two are $36.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grand Canyon Education Inc worth?
The market values Grand Canyon Education Inc at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $117.69; our models calculate a fair value of $154.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOPE?
Our models span a range for Grand Canyon Education Inc: cautious scenario $109.69, base $154.63, optimistic $194.13 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $117.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LOPE?
Grand Canyon Education Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $154.63 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.0 (reported for FY2025: 15.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 18.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 5.3, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
What is the PEG ratio of LOPE?
The PEG ratio of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grand Canyon Education Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 31.0%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOPE from its 52-week high?
Grand Canyon Education Inc trades at $117.69, about 35% below its 52-week high of $180.48 and at the low of $117.69 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $154.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grand Canyon Education Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, Physicswallah Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grand Canyon Education Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $117.69, calculated fair value $154.63 (+31%), Quality Score 86/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOPE calculated?
We run Grand Canyon Education Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $154.63 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Grand Canyon Education Inc currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $117.69. Our model-based fair value is $154.63, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grand Canyon Education Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (86/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) come from?
Earnings per share at Grand Canyon Education Inc grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grand Canyon Education Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The market capitalisation of Grand Canyon Education Inc is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 3.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Earnings per share at Grand Canyon Education Inc are $8.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The net margin of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 19.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 31.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 27.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
The operating margin of Grand Canyon Education Inc is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Revenue at Grand Canyon Education Inc is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE)?
Earnings per share at Grand Canyon Education Inc are growing +18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) carry?
The net debt of Grand Canyon Education Inc is $88.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026