Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lundin Gold Inc stock C$130, price C$98.46, upside +32.1%, quality 85 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.21 – C$117.66 · fair‑value band C$69.58 – C$250.30 · the C$98.46 price screens below the C$130.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Lundin Gold Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates its mineral concessions in Ecuador. It explores for gold and silver deposits.
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The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 65,000 hectares located in Ecuador.
It also holds a 100% interest in the Fruta del Norte gold project that comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located in the Cordillera del Cóndor region of southeast Ecuador.
The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc. in December 2014. Lundin Gold Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) currently trades at C$98.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$130.05, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$202.93 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$98.46 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$49.59, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$69.58 (bear) to C$250.30 (bull), the price of C$98.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lundin Gold Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $733M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was $806M in FY2025, compounding +38.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$23.9B (≈ $16.9B) Large · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 8.19 · EPS (TTM) C$5.34 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 44.4% · Return on equity 101% · Return on assets (EBIT) 40.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 32%, LUG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$69.58Fair Value C$130.05BullC$250.30
Price C$98.46 · Upside +32.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.0%
’99
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’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+102.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+99.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Per share before 2026divided by the spin-off factor 1.055
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 62%
2025 sits 343% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.5% a year for the price and +13.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Strong profitability from record output contrasts with limited signals of durable advantages beyond standard gold mining factors.
Main risk: A disputed Ecuadorian tax assessment under the sovereign adjustment mechanism could require higher payments or trigger legal costs, squeezing margins at the Fruta del Norte mine.
Bull case: Favourable resolution of the tax dispute combined with successful exploration could enable production growth and greater operational stability at Fruta del Norte.
Bear case: Escalation of the regulatory dispute or operational issues at the single mine could increase costs substantially and constrain cash flows over multiple years.
Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte operation posted record quarterly output driven by higher grades and mill throughput. At the same time the company is advancing underground work at nearby FDNS and preparing an integrated decision on that project plus a possible mill expansion later this quarter, all while running its largest exploration program. Will the current high-grade zones and resource conversion sustain elevated production levels long term, or will the expansion prove essential once grades normalize?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)101.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets45.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)46.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B12.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.38× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.5× · Pricier than median
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Is Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$130.05 versus a price of C$98.46, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUG?
Our model-based fair value for Lundin Gold Inc is C$130.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$98.46.
What is the quality score of LUG?
Lundin Gold Inc has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$130.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$69.58, optimistic scenario C$250.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lundin Gold Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$130.05, about +32% upside versus a price of C$98.46 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$69.58, optimistic scenario C$250.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Lundin Gold Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Lundin Gold Inc pay a dividend?
Lundin Gold Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lundin Gold Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUG use?
Our models discount Lundin Gold Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.41, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lundin Gold Inc that is +13.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lundin Gold Inc grew +38.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lundin Gold Inc (+13.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.03 %: that much free cash flow Lundin Gold Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lundin Gold Inc it is C$130.05 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$98.46. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lundin Gold Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, LUG trades below its calculated fair value: price C$98.46, fair value C$130.05, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$98.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$130.05). For Lundin Gold Inc the two are C$31.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lundin Gold Inc worth?
The market values Lundin Gold Inc at about C$23.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$98.46; our models calculate a fair value of C$130.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUG?
Our models span a range for Lundin Gold Inc: cautious scenario C$69.58, base C$130.05, optimistic C$250.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$98.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LUG?
Lundin Gold Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$130.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.4, P/S 8.4, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lundin Gold Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 101.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUG from its 52-week high?
Lundin Gold Inc trades at C$98.46, about 16% below its 52-week high of C$117.66 and 35% above the low of C$73.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$130.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lundin Gold Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lundin Gold Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$98.46, calculated fair value C$130.05 (+32%), Quality Score 85/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUG calculated?
We run Lundin Gold Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$130.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Lundin Gold Inc currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$98.46. Our model-based fair value is C$130.05, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lundin Gold Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (85/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide (C$69.58 to C$250.30). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Lundin Gold Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The market capitalisation of Lundin Gold Inc is C$23.9B (≈ $16.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lundin Gold Inc is 8.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Earnings per share at Lundin Gold Inc are C$5.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The dividend yield of Lundin Gold Inc is 3.7% (payout 68.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The net margin of Lundin Gold Inc is 44.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lundin Gold Inc is 101% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lundin Gold Inc is 40.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
The operating margin of Lundin Gold Inc is 66.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Revenue at Lundin Gold Inc is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lundin Gold Inc (LUG)?
Earnings per share at Lundin Gold Inc are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lundin Gold Inc (LUG) hold?
Lundin Gold Inc holds more cash than debt, C$409M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026