Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc stock $122, price $119, upside +2.3%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $102.99 – $188.62 · fair‑value band $55.29 – $209.27 · the $118.93 price screens below the $121.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. is a self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT) and member of S&P 500.
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MAA owns or has ownership interest in apartment communities primarily throughout the Southeast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S. focused on delivering strong, full-cycle investment performance.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 in Tennessee and is based in Germantown, United States.
Stock analysis
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) currently trades at $118.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $121.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $121.98 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the $118.93 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.81, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $55.29 (bear) to $209.27 (bull), the price of $118.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $447M in FY2025, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.8B Large · P/E ratio 33.9 · P/S ratio 6.23 · EPS (TTM) $3.42 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 18.2% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 2%, MAA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$55.29Fair Value $121.62Bull$209.27
Price $118.93 · Upside +2.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $241,287, most recently on Oct 30, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyAdrian HillEVP, Chief Investment Officer, Director2× since Dec 12, 2025: 1,602 shares, avg. $124.73$199,815Oct 30, 2026
BuyTamara D FischerDirector1,100 shares at $128.55$141,400May 21, 2026
SaleJames Barton FrenchEVP Investments350 shares at $130.98$45,843May 8, 2026
SaleAubrey Clay HolderEVP, CFO3× since Jan 6, 2026: 269 shares, avg. $129.74$34,901Apr 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAmber FairbanksEVP, Property Management3× since Jan 6, 2026: 1,129 shares, avg. $128.84$145,459Apr 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMelanie CarpenterEVP & CHRO3× since Jan 6, 2026: 1,166 shares, avg. $128.96$150,371Apr 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTimothy ArgoEVP, Chief Strategy & Analysis3× since Jan 6, 2026: 294 shares, avg. $128.90$37,897Apr 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert J. DelPrioreEVP, General Counsel5,426 shares at $138.23$750,036Jan 2, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.0% vs 3.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 28%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: MAA possesses a moderate scale-based operational edge in the residential REIT space but lacks strong differentiation or innovation signals across most moat dimensions.
Main risk: Ongoing antitrust actions and settlements over RealPage-style pricing software could restrict algorithmic rent optimization or add compliance costs for MAA's portfolio.
Bull case: By adapting to any pricing restrictions through data-driven manual strategies and operational efficiencies from its ReiMAAgine platform, MAA could maintain occupancy and capture steady demand in its Sun Belt markets.
Bear case: If regulatory limits on pricing tools persist alongside refinancing at elevated rates, MAA might face sustained margin pressure and slower NOI growth as concessions remain necessary in key markets.
MAA's Sunbelt portfolio has weathered heavy new supply in recent years yet deliveries are now decelerating sharply, down over 60 percent from peak levels. That easing could reduce pricing pressure and lift occupancy and rents in coming quarters while demand stays robust, though many competitors still offer multi-week concessions. Will the drop in new starts deliver clearer operating improvement or will it take longer for the benefits to show in results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 41 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+2.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.9× · Pricier than median
P/B2.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.23× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.2× · Pricier than median
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Is Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $121.62 versus a price of $118.93, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MAA?
Our model-based fair value for Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is $121.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $118.93.
What is the quality score of MAA?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $121.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.29, optimistic scenario $209.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $121.62, about +2% upside versus a price of $118.93 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $55.29, optimistic scenario $209.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc pay a dividend?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc pays a dividend of $6.09 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1994. The payout ratio is 178% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.02 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAA use?
Our models discount Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc that is +11.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (+11.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.20 %: that much free cash flow Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc it is $121.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $118.93. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MAA trades below its calculated fair value: price $118.93, fair value $121.62, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($118.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($121.62). For Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc the two are $2.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc worth?
The market values Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc at about $13.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $118.93; our models calculate a fair value of $121.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAA?
Our models span a range for Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc: cautious scenario $55.29, base $121.62, optimistic $209.27 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $118.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MAA?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $121.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.6. Other multiples: PEG 7.0, P/B 2.4, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MAA?
The PEG ratio of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 7.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MAA from its 52-week high?
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc trades at $118.93, about 14% below its 52-week high of $138.70 and 6% above the low of $112.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $121.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Essex Property Trust, Inc, Invitation Homes, Sun Communities, Inc, American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner), among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $118.93, calculated fair value $121.62 (+2%), Quality Score 61/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAA calculated?
We run Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $121.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $118.93. Our model-based fair value is $121.62, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($55.29 to $209.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) come from?
Earnings per share at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The market capitalisation of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is $13.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 6.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Earnings per share at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc are $3.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The dividend yield of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 5.1% (payout 178%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The net margin of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
The operating margin of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Revenue at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA)?
Earnings per share at Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) carry?
The net debt of Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is $5.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026