Millrose Properties, Inc (MRP) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $4.7B
Millrose Properties, Inc
MRP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 44% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($28.39 to $52.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (18 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
18‑month range $18.45 – $32.09 · fair‑value band $28.39 – $52.34 · the $28.98 price screens below the $41.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Millrose Properties, Inc (MRP) currently trades at $28.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.87, implying the stock looks roughly 44.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Millrose Properties, Inc generated revenue of $713M at a net margin of 65.0%. Revenue grew 135.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.39 (bear case) to $52.34 (bull case); at $28.98, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 44%, MRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($355.83) versus Dividend Discount ($23.86). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders. The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites " the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry.
Full company description
Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders. The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites " the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry. Unlike traditional land bankers, Millrose utilizes a proprietary technology platform that provides real-time feedback and data analytics to drive acquisition decisions. Every transaction in the Millrose portfolio undergoes rigorous independent due diligence to ensure attractive yields and long-term viability. By enabling an asset-light model, Millrose provides its diverse roster of homebuilder partners with the strategic flexibility to maintain production volumes and optimize balance sheet efficiency across all market environments. Millrose Properties, Inc.is based in Miami, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Millrose Properties, Inc reported revenue of $600M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Millrose Properties to Provide Capital Support for Dream Finders Homes' Announced Acquisition of Beazer Homes with Up to $1.25 Billion Commi
- Millrose Properties, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Millrose Properties Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Millrose Properties to Provide Permanent Capital Solution to JPI for Multifamily Housing Development
Peer Group
REIT - Residential · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AvalonBay Communities, Inc AVB | $190.80 | $126.12 | -34% |
| EQR EQR | $67.86 | $38.10 | -44% |
| Essex Property Trust, Inc ESS | $293.46 | $177.90 | -39% |
| Invitation Homes INVH | $29.78 | $16.82 | -44% |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc MAA | $133.88 | $65.28 | -51% |
| Sun Communities, Inc SUI | $121.83 | $114.79 | -6% |
| UDR, Inc UDR | $39.59 | $19.76 | -50% |
| American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) AMH | $33.11 | $21.44 | -35% |
| Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc ELS | $66.05 | $21.27 | -68% |
| Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company CPT | $113.73 | $41.87 | -63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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