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Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Millrose Properties, Inc. $41.87, price $26.81, upside +56.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US6011371027

MP Millrose Properties, Inc. logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Millrose Properties, Inc.

MRP · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $41.87 · Strongly undervalued (+56%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Weak Growth
✓Highly profitable · 62.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
·11.23% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (12/13)
✓Wide moat 69/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$32.09 $18.45 Fair Value $41.87 Feb 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

20‑month range $18.45 – $32.09 · fair‑value band $30.01 – $52.34 · the $26.81 price screens below the $41.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders. The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites " the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry.

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Millrose Properties, Inc. is the premier homesite option platform for residential homebuilders. The company specializes in the acquisition and horizontal development of land to provide a predictable, just-in-time supply of finished homesites " the scarcest and mission-critical resource in the homebuilding industry. Unlike traditional land bankers, Millrose utilizes a proprietary technology platform that provides real-time feedback and data analytics to drive acquisition decisions. Every transaction in the Millrose portfolio undergoes rigorous independent due diligence to ensure attractive yields and long-term viability. By enabling an asset-light model, Millrose provides its diverse roster of homebuilder partners with the strategic flexibility to maintain production volumes and optimize balance sheet efficiency across all market environments. Millrose Properties, Inc.is based in Miami, United States.

Stock analysis

Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) currently trades at $26.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.87, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $363.82 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the $26.81 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.86, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $30.01 (bear) to $52.34 (bull), the price of $26.81 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Millrose Properties, Inc. reported revenue of $600M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was $380M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 6.49 · EPS (TTM) $2.82 · Dividend yield 11.2% · Net margin 63.3% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 56%, MRP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $30.01 Fair Value $41.87 Bull $52.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $253.50 $369.67 $532.97 68
Growth DCF $258.78 $363.82 $503.94 66
Residual Income $30.22 $31.58 $32.47 66
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $253.50 $369.67 $532.97 68
5Y Revenue Exit $105.39 $123.93 $143.07 62
5Y EBITDA Exit $117.26 $145.47 $174.64 64
10Y Revenue Exit $159.25 $187.49 $217.41 57
10Y EBITDA Exit $167.10 $201.88 $240.32 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $17.02 $24.94 $33.00 60
DDM Multi-Stage $17.02 $23.86 $31.38 56
Multiples
P/S Multiple $18.98 $25.31 $31.63 58
P/B Multiple $31.40 $41.87 $52.34 55
EV/EBIT $52.23 $69.56 $86.90 63
EV/EBITDA $42.09 $56.04 $69.99 64
EV/Revenue $19.30 $27.48 $35.66 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.99 $25.44 $37.97 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $258.78 $363.82 $503.94 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income $30.22 $31.58 $32.47 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 43
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Compare Millrose Properties, Inc. with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +56% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 63% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 85% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 32% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 11.2% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 10
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 6
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 60
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 83

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Essex Property Trust, Inc ESS $274.76 $288.20 +5%
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc MAA $119.15 $120.44 +1%
Sun Communities, Inc SUI $113.77 $150.48 +32%
UDR, Inc UDR $34.10 $34.33 +1%
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) AMH $31.28 $53.11 +70%
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc ELS $60.26 $30.57 −49%
Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company CPT $99.31 $60.42 −39%
Independence Realty Trust, Inc IRT $14.76 $12.60 −15%
Altarea SCA ALTA €84.90 €35.06 −59%
Xior Student Housing NV XIOR €25.40 €22.72 −11%

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Millrose Properties, Inc. · Fair Value
$41.87 +36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Millrose Properties, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRP

Frequently asked questions

Is Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.87 versus a price of $26.81, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MRP?
Our model-based fair value for Millrose Properties, Inc. is $41.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.81.
What is the quality score of MRP?
Millrose Properties, Inc. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.01, optimistic scenario $52.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Millrose Properties, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.87, about +56% upside versus a price of $26.81 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.01, optimistic scenario $52.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Millrose Properties, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $761M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Millrose Properties, Inc. pay a dividend?
Millrose Properties, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Millrose Properties, Inc. it is $41.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $26.81. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Millrose Properties, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MRP trades below its calculated fair value: price $26.81, fair value $41.87, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.87). For Millrose Properties, Inc. the two are $15.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Millrose Properties, Inc. worth?
The market values Millrose Properties, Inc. at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $26.81; our models calculate a fair value of $41.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRP?
Our models span a range for Millrose Properties, Inc.: cautious scenario $30.01, base $41.87, optimistic $52.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $26.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRP?
Millrose Properties, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Millrose Properties, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRP from its 52-week high?
Millrose Properties, Inc. trades at $26.81, about 16% below its 52-week high of $32.02 and 4% above the low of $25.87 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Millrose Properties, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Essex Property Trust, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, Sun Communities, Inc, UDR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Millrose Properties, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $26.81, calculated fair value $41.87 (+56%), Quality Score 66/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRP calculated?
We run Millrose Properties, Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Millrose Properties, Inc. currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $26.81. Our model-based fair value is $41.87, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Millrose Properties, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Millrose Properties, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The market capitalisation of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 6.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Earnings per share at Millrose Properties, Inc. are $2.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The dividend yield of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 11.2% (payout 107%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The net margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 63.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Millrose Properties, Inc. is −1.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
The operating margin of Millrose Properties, Inc. is 85.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Revenue at Millrose Properties, Inc. is growing +32.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)?
Earnings per share at Millrose Properties, Inc. are growing +11.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) generate?
The free cash flow of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $3.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) carry?
The net debt of Millrose Properties, Inc. is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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