Mercari Inc (MCARY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mercari Inc stock $12.27, price $11.30, upside +8.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.91 – $31.70 · fair‑value band $7.66 – $23.19 · the $11.30 price screens below the $12.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Mercari in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Mercari is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mercari Inc (MCARY) currently trades at $11.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.27, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $23.36 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.80, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.66 (bear) to $23.19 (bull), the price of $11.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mercari Inc reported revenue of ¥240B in FY2026 versus ¥147B in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥37.0B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 2.57 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 29.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 9%, MCARY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.66Fair Value $12.27Bull$23.19
Price $11.30 · Upside +8.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2441 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +34.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.6%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+42.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+42.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 19%
2026 sits 177% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (27 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Strong reported margins stand against negative operating and free cash flows plus high debt that limit proof of a durable moat.
Main risk: Higher net costs from raised shipping rates alongside promotional incentives could reduce seller and buyer activity on the platform.
Mercari is raising prepaid shipping rates across major carriers starting in October to cover rising costs, while rolling out free shipping for qualifying trading cards through early next year. The promotions focus on collectibles, an area that has driven recent US growth. Will these targeted incentives keep seller and buyer activity steady despite the broader rate increases, or will net costs slow platform momentum?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+8.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)15.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercari Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCARY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercari Inc (MCARY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.27 versus a price of $11.30, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MCARY?
Our model-based fair value for Mercari Inc is $12.27 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.30.
What is the quality score of MCARY?
Mercari Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.27 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.66, optimistic scenario $23.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercari Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.27, about +9% upside versus a price of $11.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.66, optimistic scenario $23.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Mercari Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥229B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercari Inc it is $12.27 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $11.30. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mercari Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MCARY trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.30, fair value $12.27, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCARY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.27). For Mercari Inc the two are $0.9700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercari Inc worth?
The market values Mercari Inc at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $11.30; our models calculate a fair value of $12.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCARY?
Our models span a range for Mercari Inc: cautious scenario $7.66, base $12.27, optimistic $23.19 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $11.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCARY?
Mercari Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 4.5, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MCARY?
The PEG ratio of Mercari Inc is 1.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercari Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 29.9%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCARY from its 52-week high?
Mercari Inc trades at $11.30, about 26% below its 52-week high of $15.20 and 59% above the low of $7.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercari Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercari Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $11.30, calculated fair value $12.27 (+9%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCARY calculated?
We run Mercari Inc through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mercari Inc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.30. Our model-based fair value is $12.27, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercari Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($7.66 to $23.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Mercari Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The market capitalisation of Mercari Inc is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercari Inc is 2.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Earnings per share at Mercari Inc are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The net margin of Mercari Inc is 15.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercari Inc is 29.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercari Inc is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The operating margin of Mercari Inc is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Revenue at Mercari Inc is growing +27.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Earnings per share at Mercari Inc are growing +10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mercari Inc (MCARY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mercari Inc is −¥11.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mercari Inc (MCARY) carry?
The net debt of Mercari Inc is ¥89.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Mercari Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Mercari Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 8, 2026