Mercari Inc (MCARY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mercari Inc $9.12, price $11.65, upside -21.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.91 – $31.70 · fair‑value band $5.61 – $14.58 · the $11.65 price screens above the $9.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mercari Inc (MCARY) currently trades at $11.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.12, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.90 per share, and 3 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.03, and 12 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.61 (bear) to $14.58 (bull), the price of $11.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mercari Inc reported revenue of ¥193B in FY2025 versus ¥106B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥26.1B in FY2025, compounding +46.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) $0.5400 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 33.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 24.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −22%, MCARY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.61Fair Value $9.12Bull $14.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5400 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+43.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−25% → 15%
2025 sits 98% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mercari Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCARY
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercari Inc (MCARY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.12 versus a price of $11.65, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCARY?
Our model-based fair value for Mercari Inc is $9.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.65.
What is the quality score of MCARY?
Mercari Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.61, optimistic scenario $14.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercari Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.12, about −22% upside versus a price of $11.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.61, optimistic scenario $14.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Mercari Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥216B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercari Inc it is $9.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.65. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercari Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MCARY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.65, fair value $9.12, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCARY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.12). For Mercari Inc the two are $2.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercari Inc worth?
The market values Mercari Inc at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.65; our models calculate a fair value of $9.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCARY?
Our models span a range for Mercari Inc: cautious scenario $5.61, base $9.12, optimistic $14.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCARY?
Mercari Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 6.3, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MCARY?
The PEG ratio of Mercari Inc is 2.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercari Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 33.0%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCARY from its 52-week high?
Mercari Inc trades at $11.65, about 23% below its 52-week high of $15.20 and 68% above the low of $6.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercari Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercari Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.65, calculated fair value $9.12 (−22%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCARY calculated?
We run Mercari Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mercari Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.65. Our model-based fair value is $9.12, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercari Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.61 to $14.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mercari Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The market capitalisation of Mercari Inc is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercari Inc is 2.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Earnings per share at Mercari Inc are $0.5400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The net margin of Mercari Inc is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercari Inc is 33.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercari Inc is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
The operating margin of Mercari Inc is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Revenue at Mercari Inc is growing +22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercari Inc (MCARY)?
Earnings per share at Mercari Inc are growing +103% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mercari Inc (MCARY) generate?
The free cash flow of Mercari Inc is −¥12.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mercari Inc (MCARY) carry?
The net debt of Mercari Inc is ¥52.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026