Mercari, Inc (MCARY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.0B
Mercari, Inc
MCARY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +2.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.59 to $10.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.91 – $31.70 · fair‑value band $5.59 – $10.40 · the $14.00 price screens above the $7.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Mercari, Inc (MCARY) currently trades at $14.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.74, implying the stock looks roughly 44.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mercari, Inc generated revenue of $216B at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue grew 22.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.0%. Net debt stands at $52.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.59 (bear case) to $10.40 (bull case); at $14.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -45%, MCARY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($17.48) versus Asset-Based ($1.24). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mercari, Inc reported revenue of $193B in FY2025 versus $106B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was $26.1B in FY2025, compounding +46.2%/yr from FY2021.
MCARY screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mercari Japan Launches New App in the U.S., Expanding Mercari's Existing Marketplace Ecosystem
- Does Mercari’s Recent Pullback Create an Opportunity After Strong Q1 Growth in 2025?
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
Compare Mercari, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercari, Inc (MCARY) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MCARY?
What is the quality score of MCARY?
What is the revenue of Mercari, Inc (MCARY)?
What is the net profit margin of MCARY?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Mercari, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.