Moodys Corporation (MCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Moodys Corporation stock $199, price $528, that is 62.4% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $227.35 – $536.03 · fair‑value band $123.89 – $294.43 · the $528.34 price screens above the $198.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
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It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets.
This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription-based solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows.
Its MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities.
It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions.
The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporation, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000.
Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Moodys Corporation (MCO) currently trades at $528.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $198.89, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $198.89 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $528.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $57.78, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $123.89 (bear) to $294.43 (bull), the price of $528.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Moodys Corporation reported revenue of $7.7B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $92.9B Large · P/E ratio 31.6 · P/S ratio 11.4 · EPS (TTM) $16.73 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 35.3% · Return on equity 76.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 93 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −62%, MCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$123.89Fair Value $198.89Bull$294.43
Price $528.34 · Downside -62.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.8% vs 11.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 45%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.7% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moody's core strength is recurring revenue from integrated analytics risk tools, while its ratings business stays exposed to swings in overall debt issuance beyond AI projects.
Main risk: Generative AI tools from third parties could commoditise or replace parts of Moody's data, research and analytics offerings, hitting margins in the MA segment while leaving the core ratings franchise more insulated.
Bull case: Moody's could integrate its proprietary data and domain expertise into agentic AI platforms that banks and investors adopt as trusted workflows, expanding the analytics business while defending the ratings franchise.
Bear case: If AI alternatives erode the data segment and specialist agencies take significant private-credit share while regulatory costs rise, Moody's could see sustained pressure on overall growth and margins across both segments.
Moody's ratings fees capture a surge in debt tied to AI data centers and power projects, with related issuance rising about fourfold in the latest quarter. Yet overall revenues stayed nearly flat as other issuance slowed, while the analytics side keeps delivering highly recurring revenue from integrated risk tools. Will the AI-driven ratings boost prove durable enough to lift the whole business, or will cyclical issuance swings and analytics competition cap the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)76.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)46.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B22.92× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)11.37× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow36.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA24.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.69× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)4· sector 71
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 81
HEALTH (low debt)14· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Moodys Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Moodys Corporation (MCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $198.89 versus a price of $528.34, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCO?
Our model-based fair value for Moodys Corporation is $198.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $528.34.
What is the quality score of MCO?
Moodys Corporation has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $198.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $123.89, optimistic scenario $294.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Moodys Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $198.89, about 62% lower versus a price of $528.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $123.89, optimistic scenario $294.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Moodys Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Moodys Corporation pay a dividend?
Moodys Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Moodys Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCO use?
Our models discount Moodys Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Moodys Corporation that is +22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Moodys Corporation (MCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Moodys Corporation grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Moodys Corporation (MCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Moodys Corporation (+22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.77 %: that much free cash flow Moodys Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Moodys Corporation it is $198.89 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $528.34. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Moodys Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $528.34, fair value $198.89, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($528.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($198.89). For Moodys Corporation the two are $329.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Moodys Corporation worth?
The market values Moodys Corporation at about $92.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $528.34; our models calculate a fair value of $198.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCO?
Our models span a range for Moodys Corporation: cautious scenario $123.89, base $198.89, optimistic $294.43 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $528.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCO?
Moodys Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $198.89 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 32.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 22.9, P/S 11.4, EV/EBITDA 24.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MCO?
The PEG ratio of Moodys Corporation is 1.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Moodys Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 76.7%, debt of 1.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCO from its 52-week high?
Moodys Corporation trades at $528.34, about 1% below its 52-week high of $536.03 and 29% above the low of $409.50 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $198.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Moodys Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Deutsche Börse AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Moodys Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $528.34, calculated fair value $198.89 (−62%), Quality Score 78/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCO calculated?
We run Moodys Corporation through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $198.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Moodys Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $528.34. Our model-based fair value is $198.89, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Moodys Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($294.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($123.89 to $294.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Moodys Corporation (MCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Moodys Corporation grew +13.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Moodys Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The market capitalisation of Moodys Corporation is $92.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Moodys Corporation is 11.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Earnings per share at Moodys Corporation are $16.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The dividend yield of Moodys Corporation is 0.2% (payout 5.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The net margin of Moodys Corporation is 35.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Moodys Corporation is 76.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Moodys Corporation is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
The operating margin of Moodys Corporation is 46.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Revenue at Moodys Corporation is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Moodys Corporation (MCO)?
Earnings per share at Moodys Corporation are growing +17.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Moodys Corporation (MCO) carry?
The net debt of Moodys Corporation is $5.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026