MongoDB (MDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MongoDB stock $124, price $328, that is 62.2% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $137.35 – $585.03 · fair‑value band $72.20 – $215.41 · the $328.38 price screens above the $124.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide.
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The company offers MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It offers professional services comprising consulting and training.
The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
MongoDB (MDB) currently trades at $328.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $124.14, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $132.92 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $328.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $28.70, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $72.20 (bear) to $215.41 (bull), the price of $328.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MongoDB reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +29.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $27.0B Large · P/E ratio 456.1 · P/S ratio 9.71 · EPS (TTM) $0.7200 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.7% · Operating margin 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −62%, MDB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$72.20Fair Value $124.14Bull$215.41
Price $328.38 · Downside -62.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5484 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $74.7M and none bought.
SaleCharles M Hazard JrDirector3× since Dec 1, 2025: 2,189 shares, avg. $343.00$750,818Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDwight A MerrimanDirector18× since Nov 12, 2025: 196,988 shares, avg. $354.82$69.9MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleArchana AgrawalDirector1,000 shares at $400.00$400,000Oct 13, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleHope F CochranDirector6× since Dec 16, 2025: 8,698 shares, avg. $353.62$3.1MSep 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael J BerryChief Financial Officer2× since Jun 15, 2026: 10,000 shares, avg. $353.87$3.5MJun 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDev IttycheriaDirector40,000 shares at $383.16$15.3MJun 4, 2026
SaleRoelof BothaDirector2× since Dec 5, 2025: 68,900 shares, avg. $400.87$27.6MJun 2, 2026
SaleThomas BullChief Accounting Officer555 shares at $413.86$229,692Dec 8, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +43.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.5% (2021) → −5.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.9% a year for the price and +14.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of a durable moat and negative net income with ROE mark the main weaknesses, while the Atlas Agent Engine launch offers a focused strength in running AI agents directly on the database.
Main risk: Managed document databases from AWS and Azure as well as open-source alternatives such as FerretDB or PostgreSQL with JSONB could draw customers to lower-cost or integrated options and thereby pressure MongoDB subscription prices and margins.
Bull case: By expanding its Atlas platform with agent governance, vector search and unified memory features MongoDB could become the preferred data layer for production AI workloads and offset competitive pressure through deeper customer integration.
Bear case: If hyperscaler document services and open-source alternatives capture more workloads while fixed cloud commitments add cost pressure MongoDB could face slower Atlas growth and sustained margin compression in a more fragmented database market.
MongoDB has launched Atlas Agent Engine to run AI agents directly on its database without stitching together extra tools. The recent CEO departure to Meta, however, leaves an interim leader steering the ship during this shift. Will continuity in the team keep the AI momentum going, or will the transition create execution gaps that limit how much the platform captures from agentic workloads?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 342 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−62.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Return on assets−1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)456.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.15× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.71× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow54.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.67× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MongoDB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDB
Frequently asked questions
Is MongoDB (MDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $124.14 versus a price of $328.38, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDB?
Our model-based fair value for MongoDB is $124.14 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $328.38.
What is the quality score of MDB?
MongoDB has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MongoDB (MDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $124.14 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.20, optimistic scenario $215.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MongoDB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $124.14, about 62% lower versus a price of $328.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $72.20, optimistic scenario $215.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MongoDB (MDB)?
MongoDB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into MongoDB (MDB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MongoDB would have to grow free cash flow by +30.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDB use?
Our models discount MongoDB at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MongoDB that is +30.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MongoDB (MDB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MongoDB grew +33.1 % a year. The price currently implies +30.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MongoDB (MDB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MongoDB (+30.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MongoDB (MDB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.87 %: that much free cash flow MongoDB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MongoDB (MDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MongoDB it is $124.14 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $328.38. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MongoDB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MDB trades above its calculated fair value: price $328.38, fair value $124.14, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($328.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($124.14). For MongoDB the two are $204.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MongoDB worth?
The market values MongoDB at about $27.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $328.38; our models calculate a fair value of $124.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDB?
Our models span a range for MongoDB: cautious scenario $72.20, base $124.14, optimistic $215.41 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $328.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDB?
MongoDB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 456.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $124.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 9.2, P/S 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of MDB?
The PEG ratio of MongoDB is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MongoDB (MDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for MongoDB (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDB from its 52-week high?
MongoDB trades at $328.38, about 30% below its 52-week high of $472.29 and 45% above the low of $225.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $124.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MongoDB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MongoDB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $328.38, calculated fair value $124.14 (−62%), Quality Score 54/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDB calculated?
We run MongoDB through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $124.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. MongoDB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MongoDB (MDB)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $328.38. Our model-based fair value is $124.14, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MongoDB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($215.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($72.20 to $215.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of MongoDB
How large is the market capitalisation of MongoDB (MDB)?
The market capitalisation of MongoDB is $27.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MongoDB (MDB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MongoDB is 9.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MongoDB (MDB)?
Earnings per share at MongoDB are $0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 456.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MongoDB (MDB)?
The net margin of MongoDB is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MongoDB (MDB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MongoDB is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MongoDB (MDB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MongoDB is −8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MongoDB (MDB)?
The operating margin of MongoDB is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MongoDB (MDB)?
Revenue at MongoDB is growing +30.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MongoDB (MDB)?
Earnings per share at MongoDB are growing +2.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does MongoDB (MDB) hold?
MongoDB holds more cash than debt, $1.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026