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Data-driven stock valuation

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Palo Alto Networks Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $292B · ISIN US6974351057

At a glance

PA Palo Alto Networks Inc logo Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW · US
Price$333.26
Fair Value$36.50
Upside−89.1% ⚠
Quality57/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 813% above our fair value of $36.50.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Palo Alto Networks Inc is $36.50 per share against a price of $333.26, so the fair value sits 89% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +22.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $27.96 to $45.03

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −8.1% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$396.00 $58.73 Fair Value $36.50 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $58.73 – $396.00 · fair‑value band $27.96 – $45.03 · the $333.26 price screens above the $36.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) currently trades at $333.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.50, implying the stock looks roughly 813.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $79.19 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $333.26 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.46, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Palo Alto Networks Inc generated revenue of $10.6B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 31.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $27.96 (bear) to $45.03 (bull), the price of $333.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 139% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −89%, PANW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.15 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($5.46 to $139.38). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $76.77 $123.33 $275.57 75
EPV $10.32 $12.01 $13.52 74
Growth DCF $72.39 $139.38 $280.56 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $76.77 $123.33 $275.57 75
Owner Earnings $25.03 $57.66 $129.23 70
5Y Revenue Exit $32.10 $47.41 $78.81 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $40.39 $64.17 $110.56 73
5Y P/E Exit $43.19 $85.97 $142.62 68
10Y Revenue Exit $44.51 $79.19 $95.63 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $51.35 $97.45 $172.61 65
10Y P/E Exit $53.44 $103.62 $182.27 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.46 $65.98 $92.59 63
Lynch FV $29.05 $41.50 $53.95 61
PEG = 1.0 $29.05 $41.50 $53.95 57
EPV $10.32 $12.01 $13.52 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.05 $6.67 $11.22 65
DDM Multi-Stage $3.05 $5.46 $6.95 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $29.22 $38.96 $48.70 63
P/S Multiple $17.74 $23.65 $29.56 58
P/B Multiple $17.74 $23.65 $29.56 55
EV/EBIT $28.19 $37.34 $46.49 66
EV/EBITDA $26.33 $34.86 $43.40 67
EV/Revenue $14.61 $20.56 $26.51 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.80 $6.43 $9.60 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $72.39 $139.38 $280.56 74
Rev-Margin DCF $33.70 $54.27 $95.40 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.67 $12.97 $40.29 65
ROIC Compounder $11.32 $15.70 $20.12 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $40.08 $57.25 $74.43 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($79.19) versus Dividend Discount ($5.46). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 289.8
P/S ratio 35.6 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.15 price ÷ EPS = P/E 289.8
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 33.0%
Net margin 12.3% FY2025
Return on equity 4.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% avg 5y
Operating margin −2.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $10.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +31.1% 3y avg +18.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +60.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $3.5B FY2025
Net cash $1.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem.

Full company description

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. It offers Prisma Access, a secure access service edge solution; Strata Cloud Manager, a network security management solution; and Prisma AIRS to protect customers' entire AI ecosystem. It provides a comprehensive cloud native application protection platform; and Code to Cloud platform, as well as offers VM-Series and CN-Series virtual firewalls for inline network security on multi- and hybrid-cloud environments. It provides security operation solutions through the Cortex platform that includes Cortex XSIAM, an AI-driven security operations platform; Cortex XDR to prevent, detect, and respond to cybersecurity attacks; and Cortex XSOAR for security orchestration, automation, and response; and Cortex Xpanse for attack surface management, as well as offers threat intelligence and advisory services under the Unit 42 name. It provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, URL filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline; and threat intelligence, data loss prevention, services to resolve network disruptions, and sensitive data protection. It offers professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. It sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Palo Alto Networks Inc reported revenue of $9.2B in FY2025 versus $4.3B in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$9.2B
Latest YoY
+14.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (16Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+50.5%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+45.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+44.9%
Dividend yield0.1%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5.3% (2020) → 13.5% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop1,253% (2014) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +21.3%/yr
FY21 $4.3B
FY22 $5.5B
FY23 $6.9B
FY24 $8.0B
FY25 $9.2B
Net income
FY21 −$499M
FY22 −$267M
FY23 $440M
FY24 $2.6B
FY25 $1.1B

PANW screens 813% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Palo Alto Networks Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PANW

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 31% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 289.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 37.36× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 27.56× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 84.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.97× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Palo Alto Networks Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+21.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+22.0 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price1.47 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 49
PAST19 · sector 15
HEALTH89 · sector 98
DIVIDEND2 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 54/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $480.35 $365.74 −24%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $158.78 $117.84 −26%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $156.29 $61.46 −61%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $442.61 $101.19 −77%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €1,007 €707.53 −30%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $368.74 $93.91 −75%
Okta, Inc OKTA $166.23 $30.50 −82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.50 versus a price of $333.26, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PANW?
Our model-based fair value for Palo Alto Networks Inc is $36.50 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $333.26.
What is the quality score of PANW?
Palo Alto Networks Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.50 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.96, optimistic scenario $45.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palo Alto Networks Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.50, about −89% upside versus a price of $333.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $27.96, optimistic scenario $45.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)?
Palo Alto Networks Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PANW?
The net profit margin of Palo Alto Networks Inc is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Palo Alto Networks Inc pay a dividend?
Palo Alto Networks Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Palo Alto Networks Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.0 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PANW use?
Our models discount Palo Alto Networks Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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