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Data-driven stock valuation

MongoDB (MDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what MongoDB is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $29.1B · ISIN US60937P1066

At a glance

M MongoDB logo MongoDB MDB · US
Price$358.38
Fair Value$93.91
Upside−73.8%
Quality52/100

A solid business, but trading 282% above our fair value of $93.91.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of MongoDB is $93.91 per share against a price of $358.38, so the fair value sits 74% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +33.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/13)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 3 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $69.65 to $118.16

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −14.0% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$585.03 $137.35 Fair Value $93.91 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $137.35 – $585.03 · fair‑value band $69.65 – $118.16 · the $358.38 price screens above the $93.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

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Analysis

MongoDB (MDB) currently trades at $358.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.91, implying the stock looks roughly 281.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $163.95 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $358.38 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.59, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, MongoDB generated revenue of $2.6B at a net margin of −1.1%. Revenue grew 25.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $69.65 (bear) to $118.16 (bull), the price of $358.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −74%, MDB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $103.92 $163.95 $355.11 73
Growth DCF $97.70 $194.66 $353.53 72
5Y Revenue Exit $73.70 $125.61 $234.06 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $103.92 $163.95 $355.11 73
5Y Revenue Exit $73.70 $125.61 $234.06 67
10Y Revenue Exit $81.27 $173.49 $230.30 64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.99 $10.38 $16.46 64
DDM Multi-Stage $4.99 $8.75 $10.89 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $55.85 $80.10 $104.35 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $18.35 $24.59 $36.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $97.70 $194.66 $353.53 72
Rev-Margin DCF $81.30 $143.84 $274.89 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($163.95) versus Dividend Discount ($8.75). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 10.7 TTM
EPS (TTM) $−0.3800
Dividend yield 0.1%
Net margin −2.9% FY2026
Return on equity −1.0% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −8.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −3.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +25.2% 3y avg +24.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $500M FY2026
Net cash $1.1B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 10
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 11
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company offers MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a …

Full company description

MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company offers MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premises, or in a hybrid environment; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It offers professional services comprising consulting and training. The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

MongoDB reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +29.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.2M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$2.5B
Latest YoY
+22.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+33.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+43.8%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.5% (2021) → −5.6% (2026)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +29.6%/yr
FY22 $874M
FY23 $1.3B
FY24 $1.7B
FY25 $2.0B
FY26 $2.5B
Net income
FY22 −$307M
FY23 −$345M
FY24 −$177M
FY25 −$129M
FY26 −$71.2M

MDB screens 282% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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MongoDB · Fair Value
$93.91 −282%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MongoDB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDB

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 25% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.39× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 9.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 10.66× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 55.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.67× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must MongoDB deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+23.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+33.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.3 %
FCF yield on price1.72 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 49
PAST0 · sector 15
HEALTH81 · sector 98
DIVIDEND3 · sector 26

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $480.35 $365.74 −24%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $158.78 $117.84 −26%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $333.26 $36.50 −89%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $156.29 $61.46 −61%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $393.84 $101.19 −74%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €951.60 €707.53 −26%
Okta, Inc OKTA $170.60 $30.50 −82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is MongoDB (MDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $93.91 versus a price of $358.38, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDB?
Our model-based fair value for MongoDB is $93.91 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $358.38.
What is the quality score of MDB?
MongoDB has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MongoDB (MDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $93.91 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $69.65, optimistic scenario $118.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MongoDB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $93.91, about −74% upside versus a price of $358.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $69.65, optimistic scenario $118.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MongoDB (MDB)?
MongoDB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MDB?
The net profit margin of MongoDB is about −1.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does MongoDB pay a dividend?
MongoDB currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into MongoDB (MDB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MongoDB would have to grow free cash flow by +23.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.1 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDB use?
Our models discount MongoDB at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of MongoDB (MDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MongoDB it is $93.91 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $358.38. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MongoDB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, MDB trades above its calculated fair value: price $358.38, fair value $93.91, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($358.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($93.91). For MongoDB the two are $264.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MongoDB worth?
The market values MongoDB at about $29.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $358.38; our models calculate a fair value of $93.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDB?
Our models span a range for MongoDB: cautious scenario $69.65, base $93.91, optimistic $118.16 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $358.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MDB?
The PEG ratio of MongoDB is 1.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MongoDB (MDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for MongoDB (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity −1.0%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDB from its 52-week high?
MongoDB trades at $358.38, about 19% below its 52-week high of $444.72 and 83% above the low of $196.00 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $93.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MongoDB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, Fortinet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MongoDB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $358.38, calculated fair value $93.91 (−74%), Quality Score 52/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDB calculated?
We run MongoDB through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $93.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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