Mears Group plc (MER) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mears Group plc stock £12.92, price £4.36, upside +196.7%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.45 – £4.48 · fair‑value band £8.82 – £16.31 · the £4.36 price screens below the £12.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Mears Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides various outsourced services to the public and private sectors in the United Kingdom.
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The company offers response and planned maintenance services; gas and repair services; and maintenance and repairs, regeneration solutions for public buildings, and social housing retrofitting program, as well as grounds maintenance services.
It also provides housing management services, which include tenancy, lease and property management; supply of affordable homes to public and private sectors; emergency and temporary accommodation services; affordable housing/social housing management; housing with care services; private rented sector; mears housing solutions; and housing services to central government departments.
In addition, the company offers house building services; and facilities management services that includes asset, project, and lifecycle management, electrical and water compliance, cleaning maintenance, and contract management to the public and private sectors, including defense estates, education, healthcare, public buildings, and commercial office accommodation.
Further, the company provides housing technology; insurance; property acquisition; and housing registered services, as well as online marketplace for housing maintenance. Mears Group plc was founded in 1988 and is based in Gloucester, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Mears Group plc (MER) currently trades at £4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £12.92, implying the stock looks roughly 66% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £15.85 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the £4.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £2.60, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £8.82 (bear) to £16.31 (bull), the price of £4.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mears Group plc reported revenue of £1.1B in FY2025 versus £878M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was £46.2M in FY2025, compounding +34.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £351M Small · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) £0.6200 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 26.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 197%, MER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£8.82Fair Value £12.92Bull£16.31
Price £4.36 · Upside +196.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.3753 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+33.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.0% vs 9.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 7%
2025 sits 69% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.7% a year for the price and −7.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Mears benefits from a record order book built on long-term local-authority housing contracts, yet its main weakness remains margin pressure from rising mobilisation costs and the normalisation of higher-margin asylum work.
Main risk: The ongoing shift from higher-margin asylum work to lower-margin housing maintenance contracts risks eroding overall profitability through sustained margin compression and elevated mobilisation costs.
Mears has built a record order book exceeding four billion pounds through new long-term housing maintenance contracts with local authorities. At the same time adjusted profits fell as mobilisation costs rose and higher-margin asylum work normalised. Our models see it as undervalued but will the expanded pipeline deliver enough margin recovery to outweigh the shift in revenue mix?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Personal Services · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+196.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Personal Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mears Group plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MER
Frequently asked questions
Is Mears Group plc (MER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £12.92 versus a price of £4.36, about +197% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MER?
Our model-based fair value for Mears Group plc is £12.92 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £4.36.
What is the quality score of MER?
Mears Group plc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mears Group plc (MER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £12.92 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £8.82, optimistic scenario £16.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mears Group plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £12.92, about +197% upside versus a price of £4.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £8.82, optimistic scenario £16.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mears Group plc (MER)?
Mears Group plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Mears Group plc pay a dividend?
Mears Group plc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mears Group plc (MER) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mears Group plc pays a dividend of £0.181 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 29.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.90 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Mears Group plc (MER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mears Group plc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MER use?
Our models discount Mears Group plc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mears Group plc that is -12.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mears Group plc (MER) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mears Group plc grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mears Group plc (MER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mears Group plc (-12.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.69 %: that much free cash flow Mears Group plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mears Group plc (MER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mears Group plc it is £12.92 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of £4.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mears Group plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MER trades below its calculated fair value: price £4.36, fair value £12.92, a gap of about +197% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£4.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£12.92). For Mears Group plc the two are £8.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mears Group plc worth?
The market values Mears Group plc at about £351M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is £4.36; our models calculate a fair value of £12.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MER?
Our models span a range for Mears Group plc: cautious scenario £8.82, base £12.92, optimistic £16.31 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price £4.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MER?
Mears Group plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £12.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mears Group plc (MER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mears Group plc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 26.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MER from its 52-week high?
Mears Group plc trades at £4.36, about 3% below its 52-week high of £4.48 and 41% above the low of £3.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £12.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mears Group plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, Frontdoor, Inc, H&R Block, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mears Group plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price £4.36, calculated fair value £12.92 (+197%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MER calculated?
We run Mears Group plc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £12.92 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mears Group plc currently trades 66% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £4.36. Our model-based fair value is £12.92, about +197% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mears Group plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£8.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (£8.82 to £16.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mears Group plc (MER) come from?
Earnings per share at Mears Group plc grew +9.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +6.5 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mears Group plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The market capitalisation of Mears Group plc is £351M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mears Group plc is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mears Group plc (MER)?
Earnings per share at Mears Group plc are £0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The dividend yield of Mears Group plc is 4.2% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The net margin of Mears Group plc is 4.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mears Group plc is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mears Group plc (MER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mears Group plc is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mears Group plc (MER)?
The operating margin of Mears Group plc is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mears Group plc (MER)?
Revenue at Mears Group plc is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mears Group plc (MER)?
Earnings per share at Mears Group plc are growing +30.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mears Group plc (MER) carry?
The net debt of Mears Group plc is £270M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026