Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medibank Private Ltd stock A$1.95, price A$5.21, that is 62.6% below the price, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.40 – A$5.28 · fair‑value band A$1.46 – A$2.44 · the A$5.21 price screens above the A$1.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Medibank Private Limited provides private health insurance in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health.
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The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, including hospital cover that offers members with health cover for hospital treatments; and ancillary cover, which provides members with health cover for healthcare services comprising dental, optical, and physiotherapy, as well as offers health insurance products to overseas visitors and students.
The Medibank Health segment provides health management and in-home care services, as well as a range of telehealth and primary care services to government and corporate customers; and distributes travel, life, and pet insurance products.
It underwrites and distributes private health insurance policies under the Medibank and ahm brands for resident and nonresident customers. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Stock analysis
Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) currently trades at A$5.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.95, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$2.88 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$5.21 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4200, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.46 (bear) to A$2.44 (bull), the price of A$5.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Medibank Private Ltd reported revenue of A$9.3B in FY2026 versus A$7.1B in FY2022, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$639M in FY2026, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$14.3B (≈ $9.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 22.5 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2319 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 27.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 71.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −63%, MPL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.46Fair Value A$1.95BullA$2.44
Price A$5.21 · Downside -62.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0159 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 4.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Steady insurance operations support the business during expansion into broader health services, yet limited public data yields low confidence in any durable competitive advantages.
Main risk: Ongoing lawsuits from the privacy regulator and class actions over the 2022 data breach could raise compliance costs and erode customer trust in its insurance services.
Bull case: By expanding its network of owned GP clinics and integrated health services Medibank could strengthen customer loyalty and differentiate from rivals despite competitive pressures.
Bear case: If legal penalties accumulate and customers switch to cheaper rivals amid ongoing affordability pressures the core insurance operations could face sustained margin compression and membership decline.
Medibank is marking its 50th year by adding another 50 million dollars to mental health initiatives over five years. This extends its push into broader health services alongside steady insurance operations. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these investments strengthen customer loyalty and earnings or simply add costs the core business must absorb?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 24 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−62.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
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Is Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.95 versus a price of A$5.21, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MPL?
Our model-based fair value for Medibank Private Ltd is A$1.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.21.
What is the quality score of MPL?
Medibank Private Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.46, optimistic scenario A$2.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medibank Private Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.95, about 63% lower versus a price of A$5.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.46, optimistic scenario A$2.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Medibank Private Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$9.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Medibank Private Ltd pay a dividend?
Medibank Private Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medibank Private Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MPL use?
Our models discount Medibank Private Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medibank Private Ltd that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medibank Private Ltd grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medibank Private Ltd (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.20 %: that much free cash flow Medibank Private Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medibank Private Ltd it is A$1.95 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$5.21. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medibank Private Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MPL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$5.21, fair value A$1.95, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.95). For Medibank Private Ltd the two are A$3.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medibank Private Ltd worth?
The market values Medibank Private Ltd at about A$14.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$5.21; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPL?
Our models span a range for Medibank Private Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.46, base A$1.95, optimistic A$2.44 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$5.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MPL?
Medibank Private Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 20.9. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medibank Private Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 27.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPL from its 52-week high?
Medibank Private Ltd trades at A$5.21, about 1% below its 52-week high of A$5.28 and 27% above the low of A$4.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medibank Private Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, Enact Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medibank Private Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$5.21, calculated fair value A$1.95 (−63%), Quality Score 73/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPL calculated?
We run Medibank Private Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Medibank Private Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$5.21. Our model-based fair value is A$1.95, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medibank Private Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (73/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) come from?
Earnings per share at Medibank Private Ltd grew +3.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +25.8 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −19.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Medibank Private Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The market capitalisation of Medibank Private Ltd is A$14.3B (≈ $9.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medibank Private Ltd is 1.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Earnings per share at Medibank Private Ltd are A$0.2319 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The dividend yield of Medibank Private Ltd is 3.6% (payout 79.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The net margin of Medibank Private Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medibank Private Ltd is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medibank Private Ltd is 71.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
The operating margin of Medibank Private Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Revenue at Medibank Private Ltd is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medibank Private Ltd (MPL)?
Earnings per share at Medibank Private Ltd are growing +110% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Medibank Private Ltd (MPL) hold?
Medibank Private Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$297M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026