Medibank Private Limited (MPL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$13.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.40 – A$5.27 · fair‑value band A$1.77 – A$2.95 · the A$5.27 price screens above the A$2.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Medibank Private Limited (MPL) currently trades at A$5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.36, implying the stock looks roughly 55.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Medibank Private Limited generated revenue of A$8.8B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$649M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.77 (bear case) to A$2.95 (bull case); at A$5.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at -55%, MPL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$3.66) versus Asset-Based (A$0.5700). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Medibank Private Limited provides private health insurance in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health.
Full company description
Medibank Private Limited provides private health insurance in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health. The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, including hospital cover that offers members with health cover for hospital treatments; and ancillary cover, which provides members with health cover for healthcare services comprising dental, optical, and physiotherapy, as well as offers health insurance products to overseas visitors and students. The Medibank Health segment provides health management and in-home care services, as well as a range of telehealth and primary care services to government and corporate customers; and distributes travel, life, and pet insurance products. It underwrites and distributes private health insurance policies under the Medibank and ahm brands for resident and nonresident customers. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Medibank Private Limited reported revenue of A$8.6B in FY2025 versus A$7.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$501M in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
MPL screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Fidelity National Financial, Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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