Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mercury Systems Inc stock $20.08, price $88.33, that is 77.3% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Mercury Systems Inc
MRCY · USFar too expensive (fair value 77% below the price), but company just good enough and rising price: meets 2 of 3 rules.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.23 – $126.21 · fair‑value band $11.15 – $31.20 · the $88.33 price screens above the $20.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Company profile
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies.
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The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing boards, switched fabrics and boards, digital receivers, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video; and integrated subsystems.
It also designs, develops, and manufactures digital radio frequency memory units for various modern electronic warfare applications; radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence applications; and signals intelligence payloads and EO/IR technologies for small UAV platforms, as well as onboard UAV processor systems for real-time wide area motion imagery.
It operates in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company was formerly known as Mercury Computer Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012. Mercury Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) currently trades at $88.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.08, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.60 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $88.33 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.43, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.15 (bear) to $31.20 (bull), the price of $88.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Mercury Systems Inc reported revenue of $984M in FY2026 versus $974M in FY2022, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$29.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4B Mid · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5000 · Net margin −3.0% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.2% · Revenue (TTM) $984M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −77%, MRCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 12 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $42.9M and none bought.
- SaleStuart KupinskyEVP, CLO & Corp Sec6× since Feb 17, 2026: 8,968 shares, avg. $93.96$842,630Oct 21, 2026
- SaleSteven RatnerEVP, CHRO5× since May 11, 2026: 12,624 shares, avg. $96.15$1.2MSep 3, 2026
- SaleWilliam L BallhausChairman, President & CEO, Director4× since Aug 17, 2026: 409,867 shares, avg. $91.88$37.7MAug 26, 2026
- SaleDavid E. FarnsworthEVP, CFO3× since Apr 16, 2026: 27,084 shares, avg. $101.08$2.7MAug 20, 2026
- SaleDouglas MunroSVP, CAO3× since Feb 17, 2026: 2,137 shares, avg. $99.99$213,679Aug 20, 2026
- SaleHoward L LanceDirector2× since Feb 25, 2026: 14,082 shares, avg. $96.06$1.4MMay 26, 2026
- SaleOrlando D CarvalhoDirector7,000 shares at $89.36$625,520May 12, 2026
- SaleJANA Partners Management, LPDirector2× since Feb 9, 2026: 852,057 shares, avg. $86.63$73.8MMar 4, 2026
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
MRCY screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
- Mercury Systems Stock In Focus As Earnings Expectations Build
- Curious about Mercury Systems (MRCY) Q1 Performance? Explore Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Compare Mercury Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 263 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Price/FCF by industry
- Debt-to-equity by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,245 | $1,348 | +8% | vs MRCY |
| Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA | $169.53 | $181.25 | +7% | vs MRCY |
| Thales S.A HO | €227.40 | €170.99 | −25% | vs MRCY |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $367.22 | $274.19 | −25% | vs MRCY |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $610.05 | $439.21 | −28% | vs MRCY |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $550.96 | $382.98 | −30% | vs MRCY |
| Airbus SE AIR | €208.25 | €112.14 | −46% | vs MRCY |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $201.29 | $88.19 | −56% | vs MRCY |
| General Electric Company GE | $342.75 | $92.26 | −73% | vs MRCY |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $224.00 | $52.65 | −77% | vs MRCY |
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Frequently asked questions
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Key figures of Mercury Systems Inc
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