TransDigm Group (TDG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $68.9B
TransDigm Group
TDG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $602.62 to $606.95 (+0.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1,059). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($462.72 to $1,059) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $424.83 – $1,509 · fair‑value band $462.72 – $1,059 · the $1,262 price screens above the $606.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
TransDigm Group (TDG) currently trades at $1,262, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $606.95, implying the stock looks roughly 51.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TransDigm Group generated revenue of $9.5B at a net margin of 21.9%. Revenue grew 18.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $27.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 38.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $462.72 (bear case) to $1,059 (bull case); at $1,262, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -52%, TDG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($2,771) versus Growth DCF ($119.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally. The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components. Its Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions, as well as engineered audio, radio, and antenna systems. The Non-Aviation segment offers seat belts and safety restraints; mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls; hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves; refueling systems; and turbine controls. It serves engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots; airframe manufacturers, cabin system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, and third party maintenance suppliers; and off-road vehicle and subsystem suppliers, child restraint system suppliers, and satellite and space system suppliers, as well as manufacturers of heavy equipment. The company was formerly known as TD Holding Corporation and changed its name to TransDigm Group Incorporated in 2006. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TransDigm Group reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.
TDG screens 52% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TransDigm Investors Focused on Margins, M&A Opportunity Outlook, RBC Capital Markets Says
- TransDigm's Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Sales Increase Y/Y
- TransDigm Group (TDG) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- TransDigm (NYSE:TDG) Surprises With Q2 CY2026 Sales, Full-Year Outlook Slightly Exceeds Expectations
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
Compare TransDigm Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Industrials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is TransDigm Group (TDG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TDG?
What is the quality score of TDG?
What is the revenue of TransDigm Group (TDG)?
What is the net profit margin of TDG?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track TransDigm Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.