Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transdigm Group Incorporated stock $1,335, price $1,189, upside +12.3%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $424.83 – $1,509 · fair‑value band $514.84 – $1,901 · the $1,189 price screens below the $1,335 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.
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The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components.
Its Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions, as well as engineered audio, radio, and antenna systems.
The Non-Aviation segment offers seat belts and safety restraints; mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls; hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves; refueling systems; and turbine controls.
It serves engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots; airframe manufacturers, cabin system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, and third party maintenance suppliers; and off-road vehicle and subsystem suppliers, child restraint system suppliers, and satellite and space system suppliers, as well as manufacturers of heavy equipment.
The company was formerly known as TD Holding Corporation and changed its name to TransDigm Group Incorporated in 2006. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) currently trades at $1,189, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,335, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2,776 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $1,189 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $135.93, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $514.84 (bear) to $1,901 (bull), the price of $1,189 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Transdigm Group Incorporated reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $68.9B Large · P/E ratio 36.1 · P/S ratio 6.88 · EPS (TTM) $32.97 · Net margin 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5% · Operating margin 46.0% · Revenue (TTM) $10.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 12%, TDG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$514.84Fair Value $1,335Bull$1,901
Price $1,189 · Upside +12.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($32.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $104.9M and none bought.
SaleJoel ReissCo-Chief Operating Officer13× since Nov 17, 2025: 47,000 shares, avg. $1,249$58.7MOct 15, 2026
SaleW Nicholas HowleyDirector10× since Nov 17, 2025: 93,960 shares, avg. $1,266$119.0MAug 18, 2026
BuyRobert J SmallDirector1 shares at $1,285$1,285Feb 25, 2026
BuyMichael LismanPresident & CEO, Director2× since Nov 14, 2025: 2,904 shares, avg. $1,321$3.8MFeb 6, 2026
SalePatrick Joseph MurphyCo-Chief Operating Officer3× since Dec 1, 2025: 870 shares, avg. $1,370$1.2MFeb 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKevin M SteinDirector11× since Nov 18, 2025: 132,860 shares, avg. $1,396$185.5MFeb 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert J SmallDirector2× since Dec 9, 2025: 95,653 shares, avg. $1,333$127.6MDec 10, 2025
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.9% vs 16.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.1% a year for the price and +10.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High margins and cash flow in niche aerospace parts underpin a moderate moat, while high leverage together with negative equity form the central weakness.
Main risk: Generative AI could accelerate FAA Parts Manufacturer Approval processes and enable competitors such as HEICO to certify cheaper alternative parts faster, eroding TransDigm's sole-source aftermarket positions on legacy components.
Bull case: TransDigm could acquire or partner with AI firms to streamline its own certifications and defend proprietary data while expanding into predictive maintenance services that leverage its installed base.
Bear case: Faster PMA approvals and right-to-repair mandates could open more aftermarket volume to lower-cost rivals, compressing margins on proprietary parts and forcing greater reliance on new acquisitions amid slower organic growth.
TransDigm keeps posting double-digit organic growth in aftermarket and OEM channels and raised its full-year outlook after a strong third quarter. Recent acquisitions add specialized parts to the portfolio yet bring temporary margin pressure during integration, while the company refinances large debt loads. Will the operating discipline restore margins before the added leverage constrains free cash flow growth?
Compare Transdigm Group Incorporated with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets9.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)46.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.1× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.88× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow37.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.7× · Pricier than median
PEG3.05× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)50· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 18
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transdigm Group Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDG
Frequently asked questions
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,335 versus a price of $1,189, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TDG?
Our model-based fair value for Transdigm Group Incorporated is $1,335 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,189.
What is the quality score of TDG?
Transdigm Group Incorporated has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,335 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $514.84, optimistic scenario $1,901. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transdigm Group Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,335, about +12% upside versus a price of $1,189 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $514.84, optimistic scenario $1,901. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Transdigm Group Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transdigm Group Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +26.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDG use?
Our models discount Transdigm Group Incorporated at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transdigm Group Incorporated that is +26.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transdigm Group Incorporated grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +26.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transdigm Group Incorporated (+26.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.64 %: that much free cash flow Transdigm Group Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transdigm Group Incorporated it is $1,335 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $1,189. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, TDG trades below its calculated fair value: price $1,189, fair value $1,335, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,189); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,335). For Transdigm Group Incorporated the two are $145.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transdigm Group Incorporated worth?
The market values Transdigm Group Incorporated at about $68.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $1,189; our models calculate a fair value of $1,335 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDG?
Our models span a range for Transdigm Group Incorporated: cautious scenario $514.84, base $1,335, optimistic $1,901 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $1,189). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDG?
Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.1 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,335 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 36.1. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/S 6.9, EV/EBITDA 18.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TDG?
The PEG ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 3.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transdigm Group Incorporated (as of Nov 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDG from its 52-week high?
Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at $1,189, about 18% below its 52-week high of $1,450 and 11% above the low of $1,076 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,335 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transdigm Group Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $1,189, calculated fair value $1,335 (+12%), Quality Score 69/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDG calculated?
We run Transdigm Group Incorporated through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,335, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Transdigm Group Incorporated currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $1,189. Our model-based fair value is $1,335, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transdigm Group Incorporated right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($514.84 to $1,901). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) come from?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.0 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Transdigm Group Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The market capitalisation of Transdigm Group Incorporated is $68.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 6.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated are $32.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The net margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 21.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The operating margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 46.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Revenue at Transdigm Group Incorporated is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated are growing +10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) carry?
The net debt of Transdigm Group Incorporated is $27.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026