Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Howmet Aerospace Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Industrials · US · Market cap $94.0B · ISIN US4432011082
At a glance
HAHowmet Aerospace IncHWM · US
Price$231.53
Fair Value$50.43
Upside−78.2%
Quality77/100
A strong business, but trading 359% above our fair value of $50.43.
As of Sep 9, 2026, the fair value of Howmet Aerospace Inc is $50.43 per share against a price of $231.53, so the fair value sits 78% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.20% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 88/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 4 out of 100
Evidence: LowRange $34.06 to $77.85
Fair value as of: Sep 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −17.9% over the past month.
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What matters now
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($77.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
A fairly wide model range ($34.06 to $77.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.05 – $292.65 · fair‑value band $34.06 – $77.85 · the $231.53 price screens above the $50.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 9, 2026.
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) currently trades at $231.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.43, implying the stock looks roughly 359.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $60.21 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $231.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.96, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Howmet Aerospace Inc generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 20.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 9, 2026
Scenario range: $34.06 (bear) to $77.85 (bull), the price of $231.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −78%, HWM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.69 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($4.88 to $85.21). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio53.7
P/S ratio9.82P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$4.31price ÷ EPS = P/E 53.7
Dividend yield0.2%payout 10.7%
Net margin18.3%FY2025
Return on equity33.8%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)13.1%avg 5y
Operating margin28.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$8.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+19.1%3y avg +13.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+71.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$1.4BFY2025
Net debt$2.3BFY2025 · ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality77/100
Of which business quality 72
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Profitability69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance93
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels.
Full company description
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners; and latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and installation tools. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products, aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies for aerospace and defense applications; and titanium forgings, extrusions, and forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported revenue of $8.3B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +55.5%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$8.3B
Latest YoY
+11.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +44.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+44.3%
Dividend yield0.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 44.3% vs 10Y 19.8%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16.1% (2020) → 25.8% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop657% (2013) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 102% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)53.7× · Pricier than median
P/B20.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.96× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF78.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA44.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.80× · Cheapest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Howmet Aerospace Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+24.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+9.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.6 %
FCF yield on price1.52 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.7 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE96· sector 50
PAST100· sector 38
HEALTH73· sector 93
DIVIDEND4· sector 16
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
WeaponsDefense
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 9, 2026).
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.43 versus a price of $231.53, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HWM?
Our model-based fair value for Howmet Aerospace Inc is $50.43 (as of Sep 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $231.53.
What is the quality score of HWM?
Howmet Aerospace Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.43 (as of Sep 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.06, optimistic scenario $77.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Howmet Aerospace Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.43, about −78% upside versus a price of $231.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.06, optimistic scenario $77.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HWM?
The net profit margin of Howmet Aerospace Inc is about 20.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Howmet Aerospace Inc pay a dividend?
Howmet Aerospace Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Howmet Aerospace Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +24.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Sep 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HWM use?
Our models discount Howmet Aerospace Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Howmet Aerospace Inc it is $50.43 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026), against a price of $231.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 9, 2026, HWM trades above its calculated fair value: price $231.53, fair value $50.43, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($231.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.43). For Howmet Aerospace Inc the two are $181.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Howmet Aerospace Inc worth?
The market values Howmet Aerospace Inc at about $94.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 9, 2026). Per share that is $231.53; our models calculate a fair value of $50.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWM?
Our models span a range for Howmet Aerospace Inc: cautious scenario $34.06, base $50.43, optimistic $77.85 per share (as of Sep 9, 2026, price $231.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HWM?
Howmet Aerospace Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53.7 (as of Sep 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $50.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 20.9, P/S 13.0, EV/EBITDA 44.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HWM?
The PEG ratio of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Howmet Aerospace Inc (as of Sep 9, 2026): return on equity 33.8%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWM from its 52-week high?
Howmet Aerospace Inc trades at $231.53, about 17% below its 52-week high of $280.62 and 40% above the low of $165.14 (as of Sep 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Howmet Aerospace Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 9, 2026: price $231.53, calculated fair value $50.43 (−78%), Quality Score 77/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWM calculated?
We run Howmet Aerospace Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Howmet Aerospace Inc
HWM · US