Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $112B
Howmet Aerospace Inc
HWM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +5.2% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 82% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($77.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($34.67 to $77.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.05 – $291.42 · fair‑value band $34.67 – $77.85 · the $289.72 price screens above the $51.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) currently trades at $289.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.40, implying the stock looks roughly 82.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 79/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Howmet Aerospace Inc generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 20.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.67 (bear case) to $77.85 (bull case); at $289.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -82%, HWM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($57.14) versus Dividend Discount ($4.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels.
Full company description
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners; and latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and installation tools. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products, aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies for aerospace and defense applications; and titanium forgings, extrusions, and forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported revenue of $8.3B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +55.5%/yr from FY2021.
HWM screens 82% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Seeking Clues to Howmet (HWM) Q2 Earnings? A Peek Into Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics
- Howmet (HWM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
- Howmet (HWM) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know
- Are Aerospace Stocks Lagging Howmet Aerospace (HWM) This Year?
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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