Thales S.A (HO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €45.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +11.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€213.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.44 – €268.16 · fair‑value band €128.35 – €213.91 · the €264.60 price screens above the €171.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Thales S.A (HO) currently trades at €264.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €171.13, implying the stock looks roughly 35.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Thales S.A generated revenue of €22.1B at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €128.35 (bear case) to €213.91 (bull case); at €264.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -35%, HO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€178.34) versus Asset-Based (€25.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide.
Full company description
Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide. The company offers advance air defence systems, combat systems, defence onboard electronics c4isr solutions, command and control solutions, mission and surveillance systems, airborne optronics, and airspace protection solutions; collaborative combat, intelligence, connectivity and cloud, country and force protection, military vehicle, collaborative artillery, and augmented soldier solutions; robotics and drones; above-water combat, unmanned maritime, and underwater warfare systems; naval support and services; and joint systems. It also provides mission-critical and radio communications; cyber defence and electronic warfare solutions; protection systems; unmanned aerial vehicle systems; digital transformation services; and Geonav IoT for real-time indoor/outdoor precise navigations. In addition, it offers digital identity and security solutions comprising banking and payment, data protection, digital identity, identity and access management, biometric, mobile, software monetization, secure IoT solutions, and IoT connecting and security solutions. Further, it provides air traffic management solutions; flight decks and avionics equipment and functions; in-flight entertainment, connectivity, and services; drone and navigation solutions; support and services for civil aviation; connectivity solutions; antennas; and solutions for internal and external aircraft lighting. It offers lasers; microwave and imaging sub-systems; microelectronic solutions; mobile satellite, environmental testing and evaluation laboratory, and training and simulation services; cryogenic technology and coolers; silicon security solutions; and designs, operates, and delivers satellite-based technologies. The company was formerly known as Thomson-CSF and changed its name to Thales S.A. in 2000. Thales S.A. was founded in 1893 and is based in Meudon, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thales S.A reported revenue of €22.1B in FY2025 versus €16.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.
HO screens 35% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Thales Launches Imperva for AWS to Help Organizations Protect Applications and APIs
- Is Thales (ENXTPA:HO) Expensive After Its Singapore Air Traffic Management Contract?
- Singapore Selects Thales for Next-generation AI-powered Air Traffic Management System Serving One of Asia’s Busiest Airspaces
- Thales to Strengthen Romania’s Airspace Protection With Twelve Ground Master 200 MM/A Radars
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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