Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Northrop Grumman Corporation stock $383, price $525, that is 27.1% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $318.24 – $761.19 · fair‑value band $231.00 – $549.98 · the $525.25 price screens above the $382.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems.
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The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems.
This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems.
Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems.
This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and sustainment, operation, and modernization.
The Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems.
Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) currently trades at $525.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $382.98, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $511.94 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the $525.25 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $123.39, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $231.00 (bear) to $549.98 (bull), the price of $525.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Northrop Grumman Corporation reported revenue of $42.0B in FY2025 versus $35.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $4.2B in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $74.8B Large · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) $31.68 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 26.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −27%, NOC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$231.00Fair Value $382.98Bull$549.98
Price $525.25 · Downside -27.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($18.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $106,468 and none bought.
SaleMark A Welsh IIIDirector5× since Nov 24, 2025: 480 shares, avg. $584.42$280,523Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKathryn G SimpsonCorp VP & General Counsel3× since Feb 17, 2026: 1,846 shares, avg. $725.26$1.3MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRoshan S RoederCVP & Pres. Mission Systems4× since Dec 9, 2025: 2,668 shares, avg. $714.20$1.9MFeb 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael A HardestyCorp VP, Controller & CAO3× since Feb 13, 2026: 1,647 shares, avg. $704.38$1.2MFeb 19, 2026
SaleBenjamin R. DaviesCVP & Pres. Defense Systems2,189 shares at $719.61$1.6MFeb 18, 2026
SaleKathy J WardenChair, CEO and President, Director2× since Jan 5, 2026: 30,000 shares, avg. $674.05$20.2MFeb 6, 2026
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Per share before 2011divided by the spin-off factor 1.1068
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 10.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.6% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from sector barriers and financial metrics supports the business, yet limited public signals on human capital and alignment leave durability unclear.
Main risk: The company derives about 84 percent of sales from the US government, so shifts in defense priorities, budgets or procurement could reduce orders and hit revenue and margins on long-cycle programs.
Bull case: By leveraging its record backlog on programs like B-21 and Sentinel and integrating AI into design and production the company could secure follow-on orders and maintain its role as a key defense supplier despite customer concentration.
Bear case: If government spending priorities shift or new entrants capture more autonomy and missile programs the company could see reduced orders, slower production ramps and pressure on margins from its core long-cycle contracts.
Northrop Grumman holds a record backlog fueled by long-cycle programs like the B-21 bomber and Sentinel missile. Converting those orders into consistent revenue and margins hinges on smooth production ramps and stable funding. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so will execution gains outweigh any delays or cost pressures that could emerge?
Compare Northrop Grumman Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.49× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.72× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG4.23× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)34· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)55· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $382.98 versus a price of $525.25, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOC?
Our model-based fair value for Northrop Grumman Corporation is $382.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $525.25.
What is the quality score of NOC?
Northrop Grumman Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $382.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $231.00, optimistic scenario $549.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northrop Grumman Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $382.98, about 27% lower versus a price of $525.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $231.00, optimistic scenario $549.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Northrop Grumman Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $43.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Northrop Grumman Corporation pay a dividend?
Northrop Grumman Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northrop Grumman Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOC use?
Our models discount Northrop Grumman Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northrop Grumman Corporation that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northrop Grumman Corporation grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northrop Grumman Corporation (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.42 %: that much free cash flow Northrop Grumman Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northrop Grumman Corporation it is $382.98 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $525.25. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northrop Grumman Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NOC trades above its calculated fair value: price $525.25, fair value $382.98, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($525.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($382.98). For Northrop Grumman Corporation the two are $142.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northrop Grumman Corporation worth?
The market values Northrop Grumman Corporation at about $74.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $525.25; our models calculate a fair value of $382.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOC?
Our models span a range for Northrop Grumman Corporation: cautious scenario $231.00, base $382.98, optimistic $549.98 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $525.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOC?
Northrop Grumman Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $382.98 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.9 (reported for FY2025: 18.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 17.0. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 4.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NOC?
The PEG ratio of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 4.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northrop Grumman Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.1%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOC from its 52-week high?
Northrop Grumman Corporation trades at $525.25, about 31% below its 52-week high of $761.19 and 11% above the low of $473.46 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $382.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northrop Grumman Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northrop Grumman Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $525.25, calculated fair value $382.98 (−27%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOC calculated?
We run Northrop Grumman Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $382.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Northrop Grumman Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $525.25. Our model-based fair value is $382.98, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northrop Grumman Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($231.00 to $549.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) come from?
Earnings per share at Northrop Grumman Corporation grew +9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −3.9 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Northrop Grumman Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The market capitalisation of Northrop Grumman Corporation is $74.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 1.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Earnings per share at Northrop Grumman Corporation are $31.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The dividend yield of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 1.8% (payout 33.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 30.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The net margin of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 10.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
The operating margin of Northrop Grumman Corporation is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Revenue at Northrop Grumman Corporation is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)?
Earnings per share at Northrop Grumman Corporation are growing +2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) carry?
The net debt of Northrop Grumman Corporation is $15.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026