Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Northrop Grumman Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Northrop Grumman Corporation
NOC · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $319.68 – $764.65 · fair‑value band $207.65 – $543.77 · the $527.39 price screens above the $356.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Company profile
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems.
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Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and sustainment, operation, and modernization. The Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) currently trades at $527.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $356.59, implying the stock looks roughly 47.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $512.05 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $527.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $78.65, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $207.65 (bear) to $543.77 (bull), the price of $527.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Northrop Grumman Corporation reported revenue of $42.0B in FY2025 versus $35.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $4.2B in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $75.8B · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) $31.87 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 28.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −32%, NOC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 25 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
NOC screens 48% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Compare Northrop Grumman Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 232 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $307.05 | $87.86 | −71% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.50 | $88.37 | −55% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €199.50 | €114.43 | −43% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $533.46 | $419.01 | −21% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $224.67 | $50.43 | −78% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $358.60 | $274.32 | −24% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,085 | $1,138 | +5% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $249.66 | $274.63 | +10% |
| Thales S.A HO | €240.90 | €171.13 | −29% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,013 | €314.04 | −69% |
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Key figures of Northrop Grumman Corporation
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