Mercury Systems, Inc (MRCY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.5B
Mercury Systems, Inc
MRCY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +9.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 93% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.55 to $11.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.23 – $126.21 · fair‑value band $4.55 – $11.31 · the $109.79 price screens above the $7.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Mercury Systems, Inc (MRCY) currently trades at $109.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.93, implying the stock looks roughly 92.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mercury Systems, Inc generated revenue of $967M at a net margin of -1.5%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.0%. Net debt stands at $335M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.55 (bear case) to $11.31 (bull case); at $109.79, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -93%, MRCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($26.78) versus Dividend Discount ($1.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies.
Full company description
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies. The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing boards, switched fabrics and boards, digital receivers, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video; and integrated subsystems. It also designs, develops, and manufactures digital radio frequency memory units for various modern electronic warfare applications; radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence applications; and signals intelligence payloads and EO/IR technologies for small UAV platforms, as well as onboard UAV processor systems for real-time wide area motion imagery. It operates in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company was formerly known as Mercury Computer Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012. Mercury Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mercury Systems, Inc reported revenue of $912M in FY2025 versus $924M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.9M in FY2025.
MRCY screens 93% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mercury Systems to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results on August 18, 2026
- Why Mercury Systems (MRCY) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Looks Stretched Despite Its 161% Three Year Run
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $365.33 | $116.71 | -68% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $222.76 | $88.37 | -60% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.05 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $231.20 | $49.09 | -79% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥33.89 | ¥21.90 | -35% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 346.75 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -62% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 680.10 | kr 212.84 | -69% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 330.10 | kr 101.07 | -69% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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