Mueller Water Products (MWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mueller Water Products stock $22.48, price $24.05, that is 6.5% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.48 – $30.21 · fair‑value band $15.65 – $30.45 · the $24.05 price screens above the $22.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
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It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions.
The Water Flow Solutions segment provides valves for water systems, such as iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves, which are used to control distribution and transmission of potable water and non-potable water, as well as in water transmission or distribution, water treatment facilities, or industrial applications.
It also offers service brass products.
The Water Management Solutions segment offers dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants for water infrastructure development; fire protection systems, and water infrastructure repair and replacement projects; pipe repair products, such as couplings, grips, and clamps used to repair leaks; residential, fire protection, and commercial water metering products and systems; water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services; machines and tools for tapping, drilling, extracting, installing, and stopping-off; gas valve products for use in gas distribution systems; and intelligent water solutions, including pressure control valves, advanced pressure management, network analytics, event management, and date logging.
It sells its products under the Canada Valve, Centurion, Ez-Max, Hydro Gate, Hydro-Guard, HYMAX, HYMAX VERSA, Jones, Krausz, Milliken, Mueller Systems, Mueller, Pratt, Pratt Industrial, Repamax, Repaflex, Singer, Echologics, Echoshore, ePulse, Hersey, LeakFinderRT, Sentryx, and U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant brands.
Mueller Water Products, Inc. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Mueller Water Products (MWA) currently trades at $24.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.48, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.57 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $24.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.48, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.65 (bear) to $30.45 (bull), the price of $24.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mueller Water Products reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $222M in FY2026, compounding +30.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 2.56 · EPS (TTM) $1.45 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 15.0% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −7%, MWA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.65Fair Value $22.48Bull$30.45
Price $24.05 · Downside -6.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1253 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $89,917, on Oct 7, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $2.8M.
BuyBrian C. HealyDirector4× since Jan 7, 2026: 4,850 shares, avg. $24.20$117,379Oct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTodd P HelmsFormer Officer/Senior Advisor4× since Dec 4, 2025: 46,531 shares, avg. $26.28$1.2MSep 1, 2026
SaleChristine OrtizDirector2× since Aug 31, 2026: 12,598 shares, avg. $24.22$305,085Sep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRichelle R. FeyerhermVP, CAO and Corp. Controller3,000 shares at $25.00$75,000Aug 26, 2026
SalePaul McAndrewPresident and CEO, Director40,000 shares at $26.39$1.1MAug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMarietta Edmunds ZakasFormer Officer and Director, Director54,254 shares at $25.26$1.4MMay 28, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyGregg C SengstackDirector25,000 shares at $29.58$739,500Feb 25, 2026
SaleSteven S HeinrichsFormer EVP, CFO, CLO and CCO33,522 shares at $24.29$814,249Dec 9, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+25.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.5% vs 13.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price and +0.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Mueller Water Products shows strength in margin expansion through operational discipline and pricing in its core North American segments, yet its main weak point is the risk to sustained growth from slower residential construction.
Main risk: Slower residential construction poses the biggest risk to the company's business by pressuring demand and growth in its North American water infrastructure segments.
Mueller Water Products continues to expand margins through operational discipline and pricing in its core North American water infrastructure segments. At the same time, slower residential construction and mixed analyst views highlight risks to sustained growth even as infrastructure spending provides support. Will the benefits from smart water technology and public projects outweigh the headwinds from cyclical softness?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.56× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.3× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mueller Water Products Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MWA
Frequently asked questions
Is Mueller Water Products (MWA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.48 versus a price of $24.05, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MWA?
Our model-based fair value for Mueller Water Products is $22.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.05.
What is the quality score of MWA?
Mueller Water Products has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.65, optimistic scenario $30.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mueller Water Products stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.48, about 7% lower versus a price of $24.05 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.65, optimistic scenario $30.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Mueller Water Products reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Mueller Water Products pay a dividend?
Mueller Water Products currently shows a dividend yield of 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mueller Water Products (MWA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mueller Water Products pays a dividend of $0.277 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 9, 2026, with payment on Nov 19, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 19.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.79 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mueller Water Products would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MWA use?
Our models discount Mueller Water Products at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mueller Water Products that is +7.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mueller Water Products (MWA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mueller Water Products grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mueller Water Products (MWA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mueller Water Products (+7.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.48 %: that much free cash flow Mueller Water Products produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mueller Water Products it is $22.48 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $24.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mueller Water Products stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MWA trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.05, fair value $22.48, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.48). For Mueller Water Products the two are $1.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mueller Water Products worth?
The market values Mueller Water Products at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $24.05; our models calculate a fair value of $22.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MWA?
Our models span a range for Mueller Water Products: cautious scenario $15.65, base $22.48, optimistic $30.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $24.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MWA?
Mueller Water Products trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 21.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 3.3, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MWA?
The PEG ratio of Mueller Water Products is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mueller Water Products (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 21.7%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MWA from its 52-week high?
Mueller Water Products trades at $24.05, about 20% below its 52-week high of $30.21 and 13% above the low of $21.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mueller Water Products?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mueller Water Products stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $24.05, calculated fair value $22.48 (−7%), Quality Score 67/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MWA calculated?
We run Mueller Water Products through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $22.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mueller Water Products itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.05. Our model-based fair value is $22.48, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mueller Water Products right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($15.65 to $30.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mueller Water Products (MWA) come from?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products grew +10.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin +5.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mueller Water Products
How large is the market capitalisation of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The market capitalisation of Mueller Water Products is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mueller Water Products is 2.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products are $1.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The dividend yield of Mueller Water Products is 1.2% (payout 19.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The net margin of Mueller Water Products is 15.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mueller Water Products is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mueller Water Products is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The operating margin of Mueller Water Products is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Revenue at Mueller Water Products is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products are growing +30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mueller Water Products (MWA) hold?
Mueller Water Products holds more cash than debt, $114M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026