Mueller Water Products (MWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mueller Water Products $19.34, price $21.72, upside -11.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.50 – $30.29 · fair‑value band $13.19 – $26.14 · the $21.72 price screens above the $19.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions.
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Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions. The Water Flow Solutions segment provides valves for water systems, such as iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves, which are used to control distribution and transmission of potable water and non-potable water, as well as in water transmission or distribution, water treatment facilities, or industrial applications. It also offers service brass products. The Water Management Solutions segment offers dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants for water infrastructure development; fire protection systems, and water infrastructure repair and replacement projects; pipe repair products, such as couplings, grips, and clamps used to repair leaks; residential, fire protection, and commercial water metering products and systems; water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services; machines and tools for tapping, drilling, extracting, installing, and stopping-off; gas valve products for use in gas distribution systems; and intelligent water solutions, including pressure control valves, advanced pressure management, network analytics, event management, and date logging. It sells its products under the Canada Valve, Centurion, Ez-Max, Hydro Gate, Hydro-Guard, HYMAX, HYMAX VERSA, Jones, Krausz, Milliken, Mueller Systems, Mueller, Pratt, Pratt Industrial, Repamax, Repaflex, Singer, Echologics, Echoshore, ePulse, Hersey, LeakFinderRT, Sentryx, and U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant brands. Mueller Water Products, Inc. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Mueller Water Products (MWA) currently trades at $21.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.34, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.83 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $21.72 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.30, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.19 (bear) to $26.14 (bull), the price of $21.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mueller Water Products reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $192M in FY2025, compounding +28.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $1.33 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −11%, MWA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.19Fair Value $19.34Bull $26.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 14%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mueller Water Products Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MWA
Frequently asked questions
Is Mueller Water Products (MWA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.34 versus a price of $21.72, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MWA?
Our model-based fair value for Mueller Water Products is $19.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.72.
What is the quality score of MWA?
Mueller Water Products has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.19, optimistic scenario $26.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mueller Water Products stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.34, about −11% upside versus a price of $21.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.19, optimistic scenario $26.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Mueller Water Products reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Mueller Water Products pay a dividend?
Mueller Water Products currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mueller Water Products would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MWA use?
Our models discount Mueller Water Products at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mueller Water Products that is +9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mueller Water Products (MWA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mueller Water Products grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mueller Water Products (MWA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mueller Water Products (+9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.03 %: that much free cash flow Mueller Water Products produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mueller Water Products it is $19.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $21.72. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mueller Water Products stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MWA trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.72, fair value $19.34, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.34). For Mueller Water Products the two are $2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mueller Water Products worth?
The market values Mueller Water Products at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $21.72; our models calculate a fair value of $19.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MWA?
Our models span a range for Mueller Water Products: cautious scenario $13.19, base $19.34, optimistic $26.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $21.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MWA?
Mueller Water Products trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 4.0, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MWA?
The PEG ratio of Mueller Water Products is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mueller Water Products (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.3%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MWA from its 52-week high?
Mueller Water Products trades at $21.72, about 28% below its 52-week high of $30.29 and at the low of $21.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mueller Water Products?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mueller Water Products stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $21.72, calculated fair value $19.34 (−11%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MWA calculated?
We run Mueller Water Products through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mueller Water Products itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $21.72. Our model-based fair value is $19.34, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mueller Water Products right now?
A fairly wide model range ($13.19 to $26.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Mueller Water Products (MWA) come from?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products grew +11.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mueller Water Products
How large is the market capitalisation of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The market capitalisation of Mueller Water Products is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mueller Water Products is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products are $1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The dividend yield of Mueller Water Products is 1.3% (payout 20.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The net margin of Mueller Water Products is 13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mueller Water Products is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mueller Water Products is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
The operating margin of Mueller Water Products is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Revenue at Mueller Water Products is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mueller Water Products (MWA)?
Earnings per share at Mueller Water Products are growing +15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mueller Water Products (MWA) carry?
The net debt of Mueller Water Products is $20.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026