Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nasdaq Inc stock $41.61, price $106, that is 60.8% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.48 – $106.23 · fair‑value band $22.65 – $64.98 · the $106.23 price screens above the $41.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Nasdaq, Inc. operates as a technology company that serves capital markets and other industries in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services.
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The company distributes historical and real-time market data; develops and licenses Nasdaq-branded indices and financial products; provides investor relations intelligence, governance solutions, and sustainability solution products for public and private companies, and organizations, as well as insights and workflow solutions; and operates listing platforms.
It also offers Verafin, a cloud-based platform to detect, investigate, and report money laundering and financial frauds; AxiomSL, a risk data management and regulatory reporting solution; cloud-enabled and on-premises surveillance solutions to assist in complying with market rules, regulations, and internal market surveillance policies; Calypso, a platform providing cross-asset, front-to-back trading, treasury, risk, and collateral management solutions; and trade management and colocation services, as well as handles assets comprising cash equities, equity derivatives, currencies, various interest-bearing securities, commodities, energy products, and digital currencies.
In addition, the company provides equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading and fixed income, currency and commodities trading, and fixed income trading and clearing services, as well as tape plan data services; operates various exchanges, including derivatives, commodities, cash equity, debt, structured products, and exchange traded products; and offers clearing, settlement, and central depository services.
The company was formerly known as The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nasdaq, Inc. in September 2015. Nasdaq, Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) currently trades at $106.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.61, 60.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $41.61 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $106.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.82, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.65 (bear) to $64.98 (bull), the price of $106.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nasdaq Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $5.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding +10.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $60.3B Large · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 10.4 · EPS (TTM) $3.66 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 36.1% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −61%, NDAQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.65Fair Value $41.61Bull$64.98
Price $106.23 · Downside -60.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.7% vs 14.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 28%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws a moderate moat from network effects in exchanges and data assets, yet high leverage relative to equity and rising expenses form its chief weakness.
Main risk: Cboe and the Texas Stock Exchange could capture more new ETF listings from Nasdaq and NYSE, reducing revenue from listings and related services.
Bull case: Nasdaq could leverage its tokenization initiatives and technology platform to integrate or partner with emerging venues, expanding its infrastructure role across traditional and digital markets.
Bear case: If new exchanges and tokenized venues gain significant share, Nasdaq might see sustained pressure on listings volumes and market data fees as liquidity fragments across more platforms.
Nasdaq's solutions segment posted 18% organic revenue growth in Q3, driven by record index inflows and 85% cloud-based fintech bookings that include AI tools for financial crime detection. This high-margin recurring revenue model underpins the business yet faces rising expenses and competition in data and infrastructure. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the move to 23/5 trading and always-on markets generate enough incremental revenue to justify the premium?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Below median
Return on assets5.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)36.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)50.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.0× · Pricier than median
P/B4.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)10.44× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow30.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.5× · Pricier than median
PEG1.63× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 71
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 81
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nasdaq Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NDAQ
Frequently asked questions
Is Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.61 versus a price of $106.23, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NDAQ?
Our model-based fair value for Nasdaq Inc is $41.61 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $106.23.
What is the quality score of NDAQ?
Nasdaq Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.61 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $64.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nasdaq Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.61, about 61% lower versus a price of $106.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $64.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Nasdaq Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Nasdaq Inc pay a dividend?
Nasdaq Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nasdaq Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NDAQ use?
Our models discount Nasdaq Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nasdaq Inc that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nasdaq Inc grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nasdaq Inc (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.30 %: that much free cash flow Nasdaq Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nasdaq Inc it is $41.61 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $106.23. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nasdaq Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, NDAQ trades above its calculated fair value: price $106.23, fair value $41.61, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDAQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($106.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.61). For Nasdaq Inc the two are $64.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nasdaq Inc worth?
The market values Nasdaq Inc at about $60.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $106.23; our models calculate a fair value of $41.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDAQ?
Our models span a range for Nasdaq Inc: cautious scenario $22.65, base $41.61, optimistic $64.98 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $106.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDAQ?
Nasdaq Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 4.9, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 19.5.
What is the PEG ratio of NDAQ?
The PEG ratio of Nasdaq Inc is 1.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nasdaq Inc (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDAQ from its 52-week high?
Nasdaq Inc trades at $106.23, at its 52-week high of $106.23 and 39% above the low of $76.59 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nasdaq Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nasdaq Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $106.23, calculated fair value $41.61 (−61%), Quality Score 63/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDAQ calculated?
We run Nasdaq Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Nasdaq Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $106.23. Our model-based fair value is $41.61, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nasdaq Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($64.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($22.65 to $64.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) come from?
Earnings per share at Nasdaq Inc grew +16.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nasdaq Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The market capitalisation of Nasdaq Inc is $60.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nasdaq Inc is 10.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Earnings per share at Nasdaq Inc are $3.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The dividend yield of Nasdaq Inc is 1.1% (payout 31.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The net margin of Nasdaq Inc is 36.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nasdaq Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nasdaq Inc is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
The operating margin of Nasdaq Inc is 50.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Revenue at Nasdaq Inc is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ)?
Earnings per share at Nasdaq Inc are growing +31.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) carry?
The net debt of Nasdaq Inc is $9.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026