National Health Investors Inc (NHI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Health Investors Inc stock $90.17, price $71.24, upside +26.6%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.31 – $87.68 · fair‑value band $47.95 – $149.29 · the $71.24 price screens below the $90.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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National Health Investors, Inc. is a self-managed real estate investment trust specializing in sale-leaseback, joint venture, mortgage and mezzanine financing of need-driven and discretionary senior housing and medical facility investments.
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NHI's portfolio consists of independent living facilities, assisted living and memory care communities, entrance-fee retirement communities, senior living campuses, skilled nursing facilities and specialty hospitals.
National Health Investors, Inc. was established on October 15th 1991 and was incorporated in 1991 in Maryland and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
National Health Investors Inc (NHI) currently trades at $71.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.17, implying the stock looks roughly 21% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $90.17 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the $71.24 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $30.12, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.95 (bear) to $149.29 (bull), the price of $71.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
National Health Investors Inc reported revenue of $379M in FY2025 versus $299M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was $142M in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B Mid · P/E ratio 20.6 · P/S ratio 7.93 · EPS (TTM) $3.46 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 38.3% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 27%, NHI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$47.95Fair Value $90.17Bull$149.29
Price $71.24 · Upside +26.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $167,029, most recently on Jun 15, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyRobert A McCabe JrDirector890 shares at $71.65$63,769Jun 15, 2026
BuyD. Eric MendelsohnCEO and President, Director1,500 shares at $68.84$103,260Jun 5, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.8% vs −2.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.68% → 52%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.7% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The REIT gains potential higher growth by shifting into the SHOP segment amid senior housing recovery, but faces limited moat factors and greater operational risks than triple-net leasing.
Main risk: The shift to direct operations in the SHOP segment exposes the business to operator execution and performance variability that would directly impact cash flow stability and margins.
NHI continues shifting capital into its SHOP segment with a recent purchase of six senior housing properties. This expands direct operating exposure in a sector showing signs of recovery while the bulk of the portfolio remains under triple-net leases. Will the potential for higher growth from SHOP more than offset the greater operational risks compared with steady rental income?
Compare National Health Investors Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
P/B2.27× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)7.93× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Health Investors Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NHI
Frequently asked questions
Is National Health Investors Inc (NHI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $90.17 versus a price of $71.24, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NHI?
Our model-based fair value for National Health Investors Inc is $90.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $71.24.
What is the quality score of NHI?
National Health Investors Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $90.17 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.95, optimistic scenario $149.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Health Investors Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $90.17, about +27% upside versus a price of $71.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $47.95, optimistic scenario $149.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
National Health Investors Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $436M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does National Health Investors Inc pay a dividend?
National Health Investors Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National Health Investors Inc (NHI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National Health Investors Inc pays a dividend of $3.68 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1991. The payout ratio is 106% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.22 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Health Investors Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NHI use?
Our models discount National Health Investors Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Health Investors Inc that is +7.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Health Investors Inc (NHI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Health Investors Inc grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Health Investors Inc (NHI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Health Investors Inc (+7.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.38 %: that much free cash flow National Health Investors Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Health Investors Inc it is $90.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $71.24. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is National Health Investors Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NHI trades below its calculated fair value: price $71.24, fair value $90.17, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($90.17). For National Health Investors Inc the two are $18.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Health Investors Inc worth?
The market values National Health Investors Inc at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $71.24; our models calculate a fair value of $90.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHI?
Our models span a range for National Health Investors Inc: cautious scenario $47.95, base $90.17, optimistic $149.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $71.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHI?
National Health Investors Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $90.17 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 21.4. Other multiples: PEG 4.8, P/B 2.3, P/S 7.9, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
What is the PEG ratio of NHI?
The PEG ratio of National Health Investors Inc is 4.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Health Investors Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NHI from its 52-week high?
National Health Investors Inc trades at $71.24, about 19% below its 52-week high of $87.68 and 11% above the low of $63.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $90.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Health Investors Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Health Investors Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $71.24, calculated fair value $90.17 (+27%), Quality Score 57/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHI calculated?
We run National Health Investors Inc through 14 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $90.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. National Health Investors Inc currently trades 21% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $71.24. Our model-based fair value is $90.17, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Health Investors Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($47.95 to $149.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of National Health Investors Inc (NHI) come from?
Earnings per share at National Health Investors Inc grew −3.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Health Investors Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The market capitalisation of National Health Investors Inc is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Health Investors Inc is 7.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Earnings per share at National Health Investors Inc are $3.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The dividend yield of National Health Investors Inc is 5.2% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The net margin of National Health Investors Inc is 38.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Health Investors Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Health Investors Inc is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
The operating margin of National Health Investors Inc is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Revenue at National Health Investors Inc is growing +33.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Health Investors Inc (NHI)?
Earnings per share at National Health Investors Inc are growing +45.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Health Investors Inc (NHI) carry?
The net debt of National Health Investors Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026